Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and vice chairman of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Association.
In the past, the word "volume" in the automobile market has run throughout. The active efforts of the whole industry have made the market show an unprecedented hot trend, and car companies have gradually realized that the era of "lying down and selling cars" has passed.
What followed was the industry knockout. At the beginning of 2024, Gaohe Automobile has reported the news of the breakage of the capital chain and the suspension of work, and many people in the industry regret that this may be just the beginning, and there will be more fierce elimination competition in the future.
On February 27, at the China Electric Vehicle 100 Results Conference and the 100 Forum (2024) Expert Exchange Meeting, Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and vice chairman of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Association, also mentioned when talking about the development of new energy vehicles, "New energy vehicles are developing from incremental exploration to stock game, and market competition will be fierce." ”
The so-called market competition, on the one hand, refers to the survival of the fittest in the new energy vehicle industry itself, and on the other hand, it also includes the game between new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles, as well as the game between independent brands and joint venture brands.
The interweaving of games in different dimensions is actually caused by the law of new product diffusion. Ouyang Minggao said that new technologies and new products will go through different stages in the process of diffusion. In the first stage, there were only 25% of innovators will buy a new product. In the second stage, as early adopters start buying, the market share will gradually increase to 16%. In the third stage, the consumers who buy are called the early majority, and as the number of buyers increases, the market share will increase from 16% to 50%.
In his view, new energy vehicles are now in the third stage, and it is normal for the survival of the fittest in the market economy.
According to data released by the China National Association, in 2023, China's automobile production and sales will be 301610,000 and 300940,000 units, up 11. y/y6% and 12%, and the production and sales volume have ranked first in the world for 15 consecutive years. Among them, the production and sales of new energy were completed 95870,000 and 94950,000 units, an increase of 358% and 379%, with a market share of 316%。
In 2024, Ouyang Minggao** said that the market share of new energy vehicles may increase by 5%-10%, that is, it will reach between 36% and 41%.
As for the further market change trend, Ouyang Minggao further saidThe market share will rise rapidly before 2026, approaching 40% in 2024, 50% in 2025, and more than 50% in 2026.
According to the development of this ** data, it means that new energy vehicles will dominate the market before 2026. By 2030, the new energy revolution will form an explosive period, and the number of new energy vehicles will reach about 100 million, with a market share of more than 70%.
For the supporting technical part, Ouyang Minggao said that according to domestic and foreign estimates, global lithium-ion battery shipments are expected to reach 5 billion kilowatt hours in 2030, and China will account for more than 60%, that is, about 3 billion kilowatt hours; In terms of hydrogen energy, the whole chain technology of green hydrogen energy is expected to break through, and China's green hydrogen production is expected to be 500-10 million tons in 2030; All-solid-state battery technology is expected to be industrialized; Perovskite and crystalline silicon tandem photovoltaic cells with an efficiency of more than 30% are expected to be popularized. Vehicle-to-network interaction and smart energy system technology will be promoted on a large scale.
At the meeting, in addition to looking for the digital laws of the industry, Ouyang Minggao also said that although technology is revolutionizing forward, social concepts and business models are lagging behind. "Some people don't believe that industrial policies can be successful, and always feel that they can't live without subsidizing new energy vehicles. There are also some people who always question the rationality of new energy vehicles, such as thinking that the battery ** cannot be solved. In addition, there are some multinationals whose strategies are clear, but whose tactics are very procrastinating. ”
But he believedWith the dominance of the market share of new energy vehicles and the outbreak of the new energy revolution, these problems will be gradually solved.
However, there is a problem that he also admits that must be paid attention to, such as compared with fuel vehicles, especially the profitability of fuel vehicles of international automobile multinational groups, the overall profitability of China's new energy vehicles does need to be improved.
How can it be improved? He suggested yesRelying on brand accumulation to generate premiums, relying on intelligence to increase added value, and a more thorough opportunity is in the "car network interaction".。"It is necessary to integrate the "three modernizations" of electrification, intelligence and low-carbon to change the business model. ”
Immediately afterwards, he explained that from fuel vehicles to electric vehicles, it is like a landline ** to a mobile phone**, or a communication function; From electric vehicles to intelligent electric vehicles, which are equivalent to smartphones, they have increased the functions of entertainment and communication; If coupled with low-carbonization, it is a real new energy intelligent electric vehicle, a multi-functional mobile terminal integrating personnel, information and energy, which is not only an information terminal, but also an energy terminal, and a terminal for personnel logistics, integrating transportation, consumption and money-making functions.
From the market share of 31% to 70%, new energy vehicles still have a long way to go, Ouyang Minggao said, "the initial development of electric vehicles, we are in a hurry, just survived." Now, the conversion between the old and the new is not to be delayedIt is necessary to increase the market share to more than 70% by 2030
At the same time, he also optimistically said, "Although there are risks, it is not terrible, and we have greater opportunities." ”
This article was first published by Han Jingxian).