Text: Yang Guoying.
changed to poverty for three years, and died quickly by tossing.
In the past six months, I found a very bad phenomenon, and many friends hastily changed careers.
For example, a financial big V, who does macro research, will start selling hair growth supplements in 2023, and since he sold hair growth supplements, everyone has found that his macro predictions are becoming more and more unreliable.
And familiar friends around me.
For example, the original friend who did ** was not good to do, so he began to change his career to do a restaurant chain, I don't know if I don't do it, and I regret it when I do it, I feel that this is simply no way in the world.
This is because he switched to a restaurant chain, only counting the cost of labor, materials and rent deductions, but did not calculate the cost of drainage, and now the comprehensive cost of drainage to the store is as high as 20% on average.
There is even more terrible, now that the Chinese New Year is approaching, I originally expected the popularity to go up before the Spring Festival, but, contrary to his wishes, now not only a few of his restaurants, but even the entire shopping mall where his restaurants are located, are now basically crowded.
There are also friends who used to do engineering, the project is not good to do, there is work to do but can not get money, and now I have changed my career to build a food processing factory, I think the food processing industry is good, people's livelihood, there is no cyclicality.
This is because similar small and medium-sized food processing factories now either directly reach the end customers, but he does not know how to do traffic as a project, and the source of customers is too small and too few, or to do OEM for supermarkets or Internet celebrity live broadcasts, but now a food processing plant of his size, OEM for channels, and the best price cannot offset his production costs.
This kind of evil consequences caused by a hasty career change, I don't know if it happened around you? Or did it happen to you at all? Everyone is welcome to discuss in the message area.
Now, the economy is not good, and everyone is engaged in the old profession, and they are generally unable to do it, which is certainly understandable.
However, even if it is not enough, the truth is not to change careers hastilyBecause, the general environment is not good, and the fact is not just for your industry, but for almost all industries.
The economy is not good, and I don't recommend that you change careers in a hurry, unless you have some unique skills.
Because, the essence of a bad economy and a bad environment is actually overcapacity and oversupply.
Today, in almost all of our industries, there is a reality of extremely high overcapacity or oversupply. Of course, maybe you think that high-tech is an exception, you are wrong, first of all, can you do high-tech, you can't do it, and, let me tell you, even high-tech, today is also outrageous, otherwise, in 2023, the layoffs of large factories will be so powerful?!
Without unique skills, you go from an oversupply industry to another oversupply industry, or even an even more oversupplied industry, how can you end up with a good result?!
As the old saying goes, after three years of poverty, many people only want to see what they want to see, and they all feel that their wives are other people's good, and the industry is also other people's good.
In fact, the so-called good industries that others are doing in your eyes basically belong to survivor bias, what you see is actually a very small number of survivors, these survivors, the fact does not represent all of these industries, behind these survivors, basically has already been cannon fodder everywhere.
For example, the current live broadcast industry seems to be very hot, but, do you know, there are only 1 million people doing live streaming in the country now, you see, the annual income is hundreds of millions, the fact is less than 10, the annual income exceeds 10 million, the fact is less than 100 people, accounting for only 1/10,000 of all live broadcast groups, behind the seemingly lively live broadcast with goods, the real annual income of more than 200,000 can barely live a small life by live streaming, the fact is not more than 2%.
In contrast, more than 95% of the live streaming groups have an annual income of less than 50,000 yuan, and the vast majority of them will choose to give up after three or five months, and a new wave of groups will participate and then make a big wave.
That said, if you want to change careers, you might as well have moreSample statisticsso that you are not blinded by survivorship bias.
As soon as the sample statistics are large, you may find that these so-called good industries that others are doing in your eyes may not be as good as the industries you are doing now, not to mention, there is a huge opportunity cost in changing careers, and changing careers may not necessarily be in line with your comparative advantages.
The economy is not good, and it needs more concentration and concentration.
Since almost all industries are now rolling and rolling to death, then, instead of hastily changing careers, it is better to compare who can take root downward, and it is better to compare who is more powerful in the end.
If you don't think you can roll it anymore, then you can do it.
It's better to be reluctant than to change careers blindly.
Hold on, at least you won't die, and you will die quickly by tossing around.
Let's talk about today's market.
The yield on the year Treasury fell below, a three-year low.
Since the beginning of the year, the bond market has been strong, especially the 10-year Treasury bond active 230026, whose yield has fallen by 195bp to 2494%, a three-year low, while the previous low was set in early 2020 at the time of the pandemic.
In fact, since August 21 last year, the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond touched 2After the 53% stage low, the market began to pay close attention to whether China has entered an era of long-term low interest rates, and with the recent 10-year government bonds hitting new lows, the market's expectations for interest rate cuts have also increased.
Judging from the trend of treasury bond yields in January this year, it shows an obvious unilateral downward trend, which reflects two significant characteristics of the current bond market: first, the market's expectation of the intensity of economic repair has declined; Second, the actual recovery of the economy is weaker than in the same period of previous years.
After the tone of the ** economic work conference, the policy pays more attention to quality and effectiveness, the market expects the fiscal force to be relatively cautious, and the expectations of the fundamentals have also been adjusted, at the same time, the actual performance of the economic repair is relatively under pressure, inflation, PMI and other data have revealed the trend of slowing domestic demand.
In addition, as an anchor to measure the yields of various assets, the decline in the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds may increase the space for China's monetary operation in the context of the Fed's rising interest rate cut expectations and the slowdown of the domestic economy.
, HKUST plans to spin off iFLYTEK Medical to be listed on the main board of Hong Kong.
Yesterday, HKUST Xunfen disclosed that it plans to spin off its holding subsidiary Xunfei Medical to the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange for listing, and after the spin-off is completed, iFLYTEK will still maintain control of Xunfei Medical.
Since the first half of 2023, there has been a wave of climax in A-share spin-off listings, according to Choice data, a total of 54 A-share companies have disclosed their spin-off intentions in 2023, of which 9 have been successfully spun off and 13 have been terminated.
From the perspective of the industry distribution of the parent company, the manufacturing industry has become the leading area for spin-offs and listings, with 47 of the 54 companies disclosed last year belonging to manufacturing companies, and most of the spin-off businesses belong to strategic emerging industries; In terms of the sectors to be listed by subsidiaries, the Beijing Stock Exchange has shown strong attractiveness, with 10 companies clearly stating that they intend to spin off to the Beijing Stock Exchange, of which 4 have been successfully listed.
However, compared with "A to dismantle A" and "H to dismantle A", the number of "A to dismantle H" in 2023 is relatively rare, but in the decade from 2010 to 2020, "A to dismantle H" cases are frequent, but since 2020, the number of "A dismantling H" has begun to decline significantly.
There are three reasons behind this phenomenon: first, the performance of the Hong Kong market has been weak in recent years, and the attractiveness of the company to be spun off has decreased; Secondly, there has been a long-term discount in the Hong Kong ** market relative to the A** market, and in this context, the valuation of the Hong Kong ** market for subsidiaries is low; Finally, the liquidity of the secondary market of Hong Kong stocks is weak.
Affected by these factors, more A-share companies have chosen to "split A" in recent years, but since the second half of 2023, as the pace of A-share IPOs has slowed down, opportunities for the Hong Kong Stock Exchange have reappeared.
We believe that if A-share IPOs continue to slow down in the future, the number of domestic spin-offs will continue to increase the number of entities diverted to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and at the same time, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is constantly adjusting its rules to face the new situation, making it expected to become the preferred place for spin-offs and listings of domestic listed companies.
, the major technology giants have laid outaipcField.
With the recent launch of three new consumer-facing graphics cards for AIPC (Artificial Intelligence Computer) and rival Intel and AMD actively promoting their AIPC products, the industry believes that 2024 could be the first year of AIPC adoption.
According to the AIPC industry, AIPC has five characteristics: first, it has a large embedded personal model and a personalized local knowledge base; Second, it has local hybrid AI computing power of CPU, GPU, and NPU; Third, it has an open AI application ecosystem; Fourth, it supports natural language interaction; Fifth, provide device-level personal data and privacy security protection.
In addition, in terms of scenarios, PC modal interaction capabilities are abundant and the carrying scenarios are comprehensive, and it may become a personal secretary, assistant and housekeeper in the future, and the commercialization path is relatively smooth; In terms of computing power, PC, as one of the high-performance configuration devices owned by individuals, can be made into a low-cost, high-efficiency large-scale model response.
At present, major technology giants are actively deploying in the field of AIPC, and in October last year, Intel launched the "AIPC Acceleration Program"; Qualcomm released the Snapdragon Xelite, a flagship platform for AI for PCs; Lenovo showcased the world's first AIPC, and in addition, Intel, Lenovo, and iQiyi signed a tripartite memorandum of cooperation to open in-depth cooperation in the field of AIPC.
We believe that with the upgrade of large models and the continuous growth of user scale, the cost of cloud AI will continue to rise, and it will be the general trend for AI computing workloads to sink to the edge and device side.
, the international food ** index fell sharply.
According to the latest Food Index report of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the international food ** index decreased by 10 percent year-on-year in December 20231%, while the full-year** index also fell by 137%, suggesting that the momentum of food***, which has plagued household spending, is easing.
The overall abundance of the global food market is a solid basis for a sharp decline in food**, and according to the FAO's Cereal Supply and Demand Briefing, the latest forecast for global cereal production in 2023 has been raised to 282.3 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 09%, 10.3 million tonnes higher than the all-time high of 2021, indicating a more relaxed situation and a record 2024 cereal harvest is expected.
In addition, the ** index of vegetable oil, meat, dairy products and other ** also fell sharply year-on-year, in the context of the global ** improvement, the vegetable oil price index hit a new low in 3 years, and the meat ** index fell by 3 year-on-yearAt 5%, only the sugar** index maintained the overall trend**, but with the strong recovery of production in Brazil, sugar** also began to decline sharply in December last year.
It should be noted that although the global food market as a whole is sufficient, there are still concerns in local markets, taking the rice** index as an example, the international rice** index will be **21% in 2023 against the background of the decline in the annual ** index of other cereals, mainly due to market concerns that rice production may be affected by extreme weather caused by the El Niño phenomenon, as well as the restrictions imposed by India on rice exports.
In our view, despite the abundance of global food, protectionism and geopolitical threats could still lead to large fluctuations in future food.