The "good red envelopes" of the A-share New Year have not stopped, and QDII** has lagged behind the A-share public offering products.
After the continuous release of strong policy red envelopes and the gradual realization of economic recovery data, 700 million people may live a year of "dragon and tiger leap" in 2024. Brokerage China reporters noted that according to the latest data, the performance of public offering ** products in the first 10% of the A** field has appeared, overwhelming the strong US stock theme QDII ** products in the early stage, highlighting that China's ** attractiveness has been significantly enhanced after the market confidence has been significantly improved, some bearish US stocks QDII managers in the reduction of positions at the same time stressed that the fragility of the US financial system may intensify in the future, and the divergence of the US equity market may open the road to convergence.
New Year's ** first performance 10%.
Wind data shows that according to the data on the evening of February 9, 2023, the profit margin of Yongying**'s Yongying Dividend Preferred ** has exceeded 10% after the beginning of the year, which is the first public offering product with a net value increase of more than 10% after the New Year. In addition, the transformation and upgrading of Zheshang Huijin under Zheshang ** and the performance of Shangyin Xinzhuo Mixed ** under Shanghai Bank ** have also increased respectively since the beginning of the year90%。
It is worth mentioning that after the New Year, the distribution of the types of companies with the top public offering performance products is also mainly concentrated in the large-scale public offering that prefers value, medium and heavy stocks. The release of the performance of public offerings will break through the industry problem of too narrow representation of the people behind the excellent performance products in the past three years.
In addition, the performance of the above-mentioned A-share ** products also reflects the current cost-effective advantage of China's ** global assets, which has surpassed the performance of the strongest QDII products after the New Year90%。According to the latest quarterly report of AXA SPDB Global Intelligent Technology**, as of the end of last year, the holdings of U.S. stocks** were 7638%, which is its maximum heavy position area. In addition, the product holds Germany *** for 316% held by France **186% of Japan's **144%, with 143%。
The divergence between equity assets in China and the United States is gradually converging.
Although U.S. stocks have recently hit new highs, analysts tend to believe that the risks of U.S. stocks are much greater than expected, and many QDII managers have begun to tentatively downgrade U.S. stocks.
Chen Gansi, manager of Changsheng Global Prosperity, who is bearish on U.S. stocks and optimistic about China, pointed out that signs of weakening the dollar have been revealed, and the equity markets of MSCI developed economies and emerging economies have generally walked out.
"The pace and magnitude of subsequent Fed rate cuts are likely to be twists and turns and lag behind the market's recent overly optimistic expectations, further increasing the vulnerability of the broad banking system in the United States. In his fourth-quarter report, the ** manager stressed that how long the U.S. economy's dependence on its fiscal expansion can continue is still worth paying close attention to, and if the fiscal pressure in the United States further increases in the future, then its economic weakness or the widening of the cracks in the financial system may be the signal gun for the Fed to really turn easing, "which means that the divergence between the Chinese and US equity markets may start the road to convergence." ”
According to the disclosed 2023** quarterly report, as of the end of December 2023, the US stocks** held by the above-mentioned QDII** managers have dropped to less than 5%, while their holdings of Hong Kong stocks** have increased significantly to 86%, highlighting the optimism of some QDII** managers about China**, which is more cost-effective and returnable, after the hidden risks of US stocks continue to be revealed.
In addition, regarding the risk of U.S. stocks, JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s quantitative strategy report also warned that the dominance of the top 10 in the U.S. is increasingly similar to that of the dot-com bubble, which increases the risk of a sell-off. The report highlights that while the similarities between the current environment and the speculative frenzy surrounding internet stocks in the early 21st century are often overlooked, the analysis shows that the situation is "much more similar than one might think". "Given the magnitude of the recent moves, and the extremes of the eventuality, we do expect the emergence of a sentimentality, which is likely to be driven by weakness in the top 10 constituents," they added. ”
The A-share over-falling track has a lot of room for the Year of the Dragon.
With the strong policy red envelope and the continuous confirmation of economic data, more and more managers believe that the A** field is more attractive in the world.
Zou Xi, manager of the prosperity of the financial industry, believes that 2024 will most likely become the year of confirmation of economic transformation. Looking back on 2023, the A** market will be suppressed from the two aspects of liquidity and profit growth expectations due to high inflation overseas and the downturn of the domestic real estate market, and the medium and long-term expectations of market participants are hardly optimistic. In the pessimistic market, it is necessary to carefully analyze the future direction through the rendering of emotions.
He believes that China's economic development model is undergoing an important transformation, and the economic growth momentum will shift from the one-sided reliance on real estate and infrastructure investment in the past many years to a new pattern of "strong manufacturing and stable real estate". From the objective situation, the transformation is necessary and beneficial in the long run; From the perspective of subjective will, the decision to transform is bold and firm. The process of transformation will inevitably be accompanied by labor pains, but it should be noted that the transformation is successful, and the restart is hopeful.
Zou Xi said that under the pressure of "decoupling and breaking the chain", China's manufacturing industry will go overseas in a big way, actively face competition, and will re-establish the strong global competitive advantage of China's manufacturing industry. Under the general pessimistic expectation that the real estate cycle will have an inflection point of "Japanization", as the "scarring effect" decays, the urbanization process may return to the normal track, and China's real estate market will find a new balanced growth center, so as to stabilize the medium- and long-term economic growth expectations. After years of relatively high growth in China's economy, the connotation of high-quality development will be truly reflected in the economic transformation, and China's A** field will also be reborn in the process.
Great Wall ** also pointed out that in terms of policy, policies such as capital market, real estate, and state-owned enterprise reform continue to ferment, and specific measures are gradually implemented. In terms of the capital market, since the 29th of last month, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has further optimized the securities lending mechanism, completely suspended the lending of restricted shares, and restricted the efficiency of securities lending and lending, which reflects the concept of "investor-oriented", helps to create a fair market environment, and prevents insider trading, market manipulation and other violations. In terms of real estate, the recent optimization of the property market purchase restriction policy in Guangzhou, Suzhou, Shanghai and other first- and second-tier cities in China, and the relaxation of the housing purchase policy have successively played a positive impact on the destocking of the real estate market. At the same time, due to the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development's promotion of the implementation of the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism at the end of last month, the possibility of further market easing this month is high. Based on the above judgment, in terms of ** strategic allocation, in the short term, pay attention to the sectors with policy guidance and performance forecasts. Since late January, the steady growth policy has been further increased, which is good for the margins of the A** field. Until fundamentals improve and the overall risk appetite of the market recovers, the high-dividend strategy is still expected to continue to prevail. In the medium and long term, we will continue to pay attention to some sectors that have overfallen in the early stage but the industrial trend is improving.
Editor-in-charge: Tactical Heng.
Proofreading: Wang Jincheng.
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