Don t raise the pension of more than 6,000, beg to let the young people go

If the elderly population exceeds 400 million, and the number of young and middle-aged people continues to decrease, can the pension balance be 80 million per year?

A reporter asked: With the deepening of China's aging population, people are worried about the timely and full payment of pensions and whether the pension system can be sustained. What is the Ministry of Finance's response to this? Thank you.

Wang Dongwei responded from three aspects:First, we will continue to increase financial subsidies; the second is to implement the national overall planning of pension insurance; The third is to strengthen the management of pension insurance

And he disclosed the data: by the end of 2023, the cumulative balance of the basic pension insurance for employees of enterprises across the country has approached 6 trillion yuan.

He concluded:Pensions are guaranteed to be paid in full and on time

Of course, I believe what Wang Dongwei said, and at the same time, I would like to analyze more data and make suggestions with you.

On January 24, the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security held a press conference for the fourth quarter of 2023 to introduce the progress of human resources and social security work in 2023 and answer questions from reporters.

The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security also disclosed data: by the end of 2023, the number of people insured in the national basic pension, unemployment, and work-related injury insurance will be 106.6 billion people, 24.4 billion people, 30.2 billion people, the annual income of three social insurances ** 792 trillion yuan, expenditure 709 trillion yuan, with a cumulative balance of 8 at the end of the year24 trillion yuan.

Attention everyone:Income 792 trillion yuan, expenditure 709 trillion yuan. That is to say,The balance for 2023 is 83 million.

So, can this number continue to grow? The population must be looked at.

According to the Beta Institute, since 1949,China ushered in three waves of fertility peaks: the first wave was from 1949 to 1957At this stage, the birth population has already retired

The second wave was from 1962 to 1971The level of medical care has improved rapidly, and the willingness to have children is high, and this wave of baby boom is the largest wave so far. They are retiring year by year.

The third wave was from the mid-80s to the early 90s of the last century

Wang Wenling, vice chairman of the National Council of Social Security, once said at the "13th Social Security Forum of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences": "In the 10 years from 2012 to 2022The number of retirees per 100 active employees has increased from 32 to 37, and I think it will continue to rise in the future. (China Business News, January 13, 2024).

In 2000, China's population aging rate was 10%, and by 2022, this proportion has soared to 198%, and it is expected to exceed 20% in 2023.

In 2000, the natural growth rate of our population was 758, and in 2021, that number has plummeted to 034, which will turn negative in 2022 and will also be negative in 2023. These are supported by publicly available data from the National Bureau of Statistics.

*: CEI data.

From 2000 to 2022, China's child dependency ratio fell from 33% to 25%, while the elderly dependency ratio soared from 10% to 22%.

By the end of 2023, the number of people aged 60 and over in the country has reached 29.7 billion people, accounting for 21 percent of the country's population1%, China has entered a moderately aging society. According to the previous **, around 2035, the elderly population will exceed 400 million, and China will enter a severely aging society. "Xinhua Finance Client, January 18, 2024".

Now it's 29.7 billion elderly people, with an annual pension balance of 80 million.

If the elderly population exceeds 400 million, and the number of young and middle-aged people continues to decrease, can the pension balance be 80 million per year?

Apparently not. I won't count the specific data, just understand what the trend is.

How is the pension paid? Many people think that it is only young and middle-aged people who participate in the workforce, but it is notIt is the enterprises, especially the private enterprises, that make the greatest contribution

Take a certain first-tier city as an exampleEven if the minimum base is more than 5,000 yuan, the enterprise pays more than 1,100 yuan per employee per month, and the employee pays more than 500 yuan, totaling more than 1,700 yuan

"56789" is often used to summarize the important role of the private economy in economic and social development, that is, the private economy contributes more than 50% of tax revenue, more than 60% of GDP, more than 70% of technological innovation achievements, more than 80% of urban labor employment, and more than 90% of the number of enterprises. (China**.com, July 21, 2023).

Since "more than 80% of urban labor employment" is provided by private enterprises, even if some private enterprises do not buy social security for employees, we can still say thatPrivate enterprises are an important force in the payment of social security.

As mentioned earlier,When an employee works in a company, he pays one-third of his social security, and two-thirds comes from the company.

Many elderly friends who enjoy high pensions say: "I have paid social security for the year, so I should take this high pension now."

That's right, but China's social security is a pay-as-you-go model, and the social security paid by these elderly friends has been used by their predecessors, and nowThe pensions they receive are from businesses and working people

Needless to say, how difficult it is for enterprises today, especially for private enterprises.

The base for paying social security has increased year by year, and some cities have soared to more than 7,000, and some cities have also increased the social security base, to put it bluntly,The social security burden of enterprises and employees is getting heavier and heavierWhat to do?

There are three ways for enterprises to do this: first, lay off employees; Second, try not to recruit people; Third, pay cuts.

The first two tricks not only save wages, performance, but also social security.

The company pays 1,100 yuan per month for an employee, which is 13,200 yuan a year, and 132,000 yuan a year for ten people, which is not counting the more than 500 yuan paid by the employees themselves.

I didn't do anything, a small company of ten people, and the social security went out 130,000 first, is this still the minimum payment standard, as well as salary, office rent, water and electricity?

In the era when it is easy to make money, it doesn't matter, in the era when it is not easy to make money, the bosses have become picky and cautious, and it is the workers who suffer the losses, middle-aged people, and young people.

Migrant workers have had their salaries cut and laid off, and they are actually the sons and daughters of the elderly.

So, what should be done?

Delaying retirement is one option.

On March 11, 2021, the Outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of the People's Republic of China and the Long-Range Objectives Through the Year 2035, approved by the Fourth Session of the 13th National People's Congress, clearly stated in Chapter 45, Section 3, that "in accordance with the principles of small step adjustment, flexible implementation, classified advancement, and overall consideration, the statutory retirement age will be gradually extended".

However, can some manual laborers really be able to carry a few more years? Some positions are easy, and those on the job are willing to delay retirement. The situation varies widely.

But in any case, delaying retirement is a certainty.

Also, I would like to make a suggestion:

Don't raise the monthly pension of more than 6,000 yuan, beg to let the young people go.

Of course, this is just one of my suggestions for fierce criticism, and my goal is to hope that the model will run as smoothly as possible for as long as possible, and many people are of course reluctant to listen to me.

6,000 yuan per month, if the two are in a big city, it is 120,000, with medical insurance, and no need to pay for the building, is actually a good standard of living, and most people can't reach it at all.

The reality is that some elderly people cannot use up their pensions of 10,000 or 20,000 yuan or more per month after retirement.

But what about the other side?

Young people work hard, maybe only a few thousand yuan, and they don't even have the opportunity to work hard, because there are too many people who deliver food and drive online car-hailing.

A young man earns a few thousand yuan a month, and the two of them add up to 10,000 yuan, which is actually relatively small in the system outside the system of a small county, and only in a big city will it be more.

What can you do in a big city with more than 10,000 yuan? Young people have to rent a house or pay off a mortgage, they have to have a living income, they have to pay for their education, and if their parents are in the countryside, they have to help their parents have some money.

They're not living, they're struggling.

In the face of the current situation, some young people have implemented the "four no's principle" - not to buy a car, not to buy a house, not to get married, and not to have children. It's not that they don't want to live a good life, it's that they don't have money.

It's not that the boss doesn't want to give them a salary increase, it's really that the boss doesn't make money easily, and some bosses don't want to recruit people, but they are afraid when they see the social security fee.

You can't blame the young people, you can't blame the boss, no one is easy.

As we all knowNot everyone who receives a high pension has paid social security in that year

December 23, 2014, the unified pension insurance system reform plan for government institutions, institutions and urban workers was passedThe pension insurance for civil servants is paid by units and individuals

How was it calculated?

The state clearly stipulates that retirees from government agencies and institutions who retired in September 2014 or before and received retirement benefits are called "old people"; The staff of government agencies and institutions who participated in the work and retired in October 2014 and later are called "newcomers", and the remaining staff of government agencies and institutions who joined the work before the end of September 2014 and retired in October 2014 and later are called "middle people".

If the length of service before September 30, 2014 has not been insured and paid, if it is a continuous length of service and there is a file record, then the retirement can be recognized as the deemed payment periodFor example, if an employee of a government institution joins the job in 1980 and retires in 2015, the deemed payment period is 34 years.

As for the "old methods for the elderly" and "new methods for newcomers", I will not elaborate on them.

Is there any justification for such a policy? Yes It was true that the conflict was effectively resolved at that time, and stability was achieved.

At that time, the demographic dividend was still there, and there were more young and middle-aged people, so everyone carried it over.

Now the trend is different, I'm afraid there will be a change, so my suggestion is: don't increase the monthly pension of more than 6,000 yuan.

But the previous policy, the previous high pension, we all recognized, all carried, do not ask for a refund, nor ask for a reduction, just a suggestion:Don't go up.

Some employees may not be convinced: I have paid social security for so many years, and my monthly pension of 8,000 yuan should continue to rise.

That's right, repeat:The social security you pay is used on your predecessors, because it is pay-as-you-go, your pension is now the enterprise, the workers are paying, if the boss, the worker is lying flat in a large area, your 8000 yuan pension can still rise?

Some people say that there is no spirit of contract, but what about the good things that go up every year? I think it makes sense, and we really need to talk about the spirit of contract, but when the situation changes, is there no change at all? The pension is one or two thousand, and it is still rising every year, is it really conducive to harmony and stability?

Some people say, if this is the case, will there be no more people paying social security? The possibility exists, but here's the truthOrdinary workers basically pay social security according to the minimum standard, and there are not many people who reach a monthly pension of 6,000 yuan after retirement. Some of them may want to pay more social security contributions, but they have to plan their current life first, because they don't have enough money.

It is emphasized that the pension of some enterprise employees should rise every year, they have worked for decades, and their income was not high at that time, and the social security paid was indeed not muchMany people's pensions are now only two or three thousand yuan per month, and most people are below 6,000 yuan, and financial subsidies should be made up for these people

In the context of the complex situation, we reiterate our appeal:Don't raise the pension of more than 6,000 yuan, beg to let go of young and middle-aged people, and beg to let go of private enterprises that provide 80% of urban employment.

Everyone is in the same boat through thick and thin, and make some changes in order to overcome the wind and rain and reach the other side of safety.

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