Traditionally, the demand for housing can be divided into rigid demand, improvement and investment. If you want to analyze the impact of different home buying behaviors on home buyers and the property market, such a distinction is inevitably too general.
Therefore, it can be further subdivided into the first set of rigid demand and rigid improvement, elastic rigid demand and elastic improvement, professional investment and follow-up investment.
The above 6 groups of people include almost all home buying behaviors. Let's break it down one by one.
The first set of rigid demand and rigidity improvement
The first set of rigid demand and rigid change demand can be defined as pure rigid demand. That is, buying a house is a single choice and a mandatory choice.
The first set of rigid needs,There is an urgent need to address the issue of basic housing. In order to get married, to avoid the trouble of renting a house, to have a home of your own.
There is a certain necessity and urgency to buy a house, which is the basic feature of the first set of rigid needs.
And the improvement of rigidity is simply summarizedThere is an urgent need to improve living conditions
For example, the original housing is too small, with the increase of family population, the room can not be occupied, or the commuting distance needs to be shortened and the living environment needs to be improved, these all belong to the category of rigid improvement.
The above two groups of people, because they have urgent needs to buy houses, are not greatly affected by the market environment. Whether it's a bull market or a bear market, you will make a move when it's time to buy.
This is also why, even if it is so bad in 2023, China's real estate still has a transaction scale of 11 trillion yuan, and the second-hand housing transaction volume in many cities can still maintain an average of about 10,000 units per month.
Rigid demand is the absolute main force in this period.
And those who choose to buy a house at the moment are lucky.
First of all, there is an extremely relaxed environment for buying houses. Restrictions on purchases are about to become a thing of the past, and with the exception of some core areas of Beijing and Shanghai, other cities have basically eliminated barriers to buying houses.
In addition, it has not only caught up with the deep decline in housing prices, but also encountered the continuous reduction of interest rates, continuous optimization of down payment and tax policies.
At the same time, by the way, I experienced the feeling that the customer is God, and became a strong Party A.
A bunch of smiling faces in the sales department, all-round intimate services from intermediary friends, active cooperation from landlords, and the noble banking industry have also given the green light to loans all the way.
And all this, most of the current buyers who just need to buy a house are not impressed, it seems that this is the normal state of house purchase consumption.
That's because most of them are first-time home buyers, and they have never experienced the era of tea fees, have not seen the owners regret and jump prices, and don't know that there has been an era when buying a house by grabbing and relying on relationships.
Of course, the current buyers who just need to buy a house are apprehensive and entangled.
Buy it, I always worry about buying expensive from time to time, will it go down? I am entangled in what to buy**, how to choose? If you don't buy it, you urgently need to solve the housing problem. It's really a blissful annoyance.
There is just need every year, but now the just need is indeed the darling of history and the lucky one of the times.
Demand didn't come early, it didn't come late, and it happened to fall in the biggest drop in history in the most relaxed and friendly home buying environment in history.
The urgent housing needs have made them not have too much fear about the present and future of the property market. Inadvertently, it was "bought where no one cares".
Not only does it save money, but it also adds some chips that are not lost in the future to be replaced or sold.
The current buyers who just need to buy a house seem to have some shadows of the buyers of the first batch of years ago. It's just that, standing at the juncture of history, some people don't know about it.
There is no doubt that there will always be a group of people who miss a good opportunity to sell, and there will always be a group of people who miss a good opportunity.
Let's look at elasticity and elasticity improvement. This is collectively referred to as elastic demand.
For them, i.e. buying a house is not an urgent issue. You can buy it or not, but you can buy it now or later.
For example, young people who have just graduated, although they want to buy a house, but because of their unstable jobs, insufficient funds, and are not in a hurry to start a family, it is naturally a kind of flexible need.
Resilience improvements, on the other hand, are common when the house is basically enough to live in, but they just want to choose the opportunity to change to a bigger update, or have a better school district. But if they weren't worried about price increases, they wouldn't rush to get started.
The characteristic of elastic demand is that the property market does not rise, it will not be easy to enter the market, only the market is hot, and the price has begun to rise, and the elastic demand has quickly transformed into rigid demand.
They can't wait to join the army of home buyers, the main reason is that they are afraid that they will not be able to get into the car in the future.
Strictly speaking, elastic demand does not belong to investors.
Because they only have one or two houses, the debt ratio and leverage ratio are not too high, and they have a relatively stable cash flow, and the house itself is self-occupied, so they have the willingness and ability to hold it for a long time, and can use time to hedge the cyclical ups and downs of the property market.
The elastic demand base is huge, which is a powerful driving force for the property market.
Relying solely on rigid demand, it is difficult to set off much ripples in the property market. Rigid demand is more like a foundation builder, which is the basic plate for the stability of the property market. In a specific period, driven by economic, financial, monetary, policy and other factors, a large number of elastic rigid demand will quickly pour into the property market in the short term, greatly increasing market heat and pushing up assets**.
The entry and wait-and-see of elastic demand has a profound impact on the trend of the property market.
The core task of this round of bailout is to stimulate demand, repair and raise expectations, and guide flexible demand to actively enter the market.
After the elastic demand entered the market, the market is hot, and the next step is the large-scale debut of investment demand.
It is necessary to distinguish between professional investment demand and follow-up investment demand (investment with the crowd).
The property market is not **, professional investors are very few, the investment and speculative attributes of the property market are more reflected in the latter, and the real leeks often appear here.
Professional investors are scarce, so it is unrealistic to rely on them to pull the market and speculate on housing prices. It is also unlikely that it will rely on its sell-off to pull down housing prices. Although they are not the initiators of **, they are the catalysts of **. And the leek investors who follow the crowd are the real fuel agents.
It is undeniable that professional investors will also fall behind, and there is also the possibility of loss and the risk of liquidation, but compared with a large number of investors who follow the crowd, their profit possibilities are much higher, and the risk of loss and liquidation is much smaller.
After all, it's an asymmetrical game.
First of all, in terms of timing, professional investors either buy early or buy smart.
They regard buying a house as a long-term behavior, with sufficient market research and an orderly selling plan, and will ambush in advance before the market starts, and do not expect to buy at the unknowable lowest point.
Sometimes when you encounter high-quality bamboo shoots, you can buy them in advance, and sometimes you will start decisively when the market has just started, because they have already stepped on a large number of plates in advance, and they only need to choose from the shopping cart before the big rise.
Investors who follow the crowd are not like professional investors who have been immersed in the property market for a long time. But as an afterthought, when I see that the property market is on fire and has a certain increase, I will rush to chase high**. First, I missed a period of gains, and secondly, it is not easy to buy high-quality targets, and if I don't get it, I will fall into the pit, buy it in the suburbs, and buy a hard room.
Secondly, in terms of holding ability, a rational and professional investor usually does not increase leverage excessively, but reserves enough safety cushion to build a moat. That is, full of awe of risks, able to exchange time for space through rich financing means, and go through the property market cycle.
The latter, on the other hand, is prone to over-optimism when the market is sluggish, and falls into a transitional panic when the market is sluggish. It is easy to blindly over-leverage, thinking that you can get rid of it at any time in the near future, and it is easy to lose concentration in the bear market, lose your rationality, and lack of cash flow support, and finally do not hesitate to sell it sharply, becoming the so-called leek.
At this point, it is self-evident who is the main force pushing up the property market and intensifying the bear market. When it goes up, it buys and buys, and when it falls, it panics and tramples and sells, most of the time it is the same group of people.
Epilogue. Rigid demand is the basic plate of the property market, elastic demand is the key weight of the property market balance, and investment demand is the main force of the property market. Those who have rigid needs and flexible needs can exchange time for space and use reasonable leverage to go through the cycle, and rational and professional investors are more likely to get out of the cycle than fanatical investors who follow the herd.
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