What are the causes of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine? Will Ukraine fall victim to a multi-sided game?
It can be said that lately there has been a lot of news about Russia and Ukraine. But it is precisely because there is so much news and it is too fragmented that it is easy to ignore the ins and outs of this war. In other words: why did Russia and Ukraine get to this point? As a Chinese thousands of miles away, what else can I think of besides watching the excitement? Today, Di Qiu tried to use concise language to help everyone clarify this matter.
First of all, we need to be clear about one thing. The problems between Russia and Ukraine are by no means just a conflict between the two countries. This is the most obvious result of the game of world powers.
Let's start by looking back at the end of World War II. There were two superpowers in the world at that time: the Soviet Union and the United States. Soon, in 1949, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was established on the European continent with the United States at its core. Note that at this time NATO has only 12 countries as shown in the figure.
Then, in 1955, the Soviet Union led the socialist bloc to establish the Warsaw Pact. At this time, Flowey was engaged in eight countries.
Although there was no large-scale hot war between the Warsaw Pact and NATO, the political, economic, and ideological confrontation between regional alliances never stopped. This is what everyone is familiar with after Churchill's Iron Curtain speech: the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union. Eventually, the confrontation ended after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Of course, the Warsaw Pact also collapsed.
But we can see from the diagram that these countries are on the same European continent, whether NATO or the Warsaw Pact, and we are more or less neighbors. Now that your Warsaw Pact is gone, join NATO. Therefore, starting in 1999, NATO took advantage of the momentum of the victory in the Cold War and took the lead in including Hungary, Poland, and the Czech Republic. In 2004, it covered all seven countries, including the Baltic States, Romania and Slovakia. Counting, five years ago, the number of NATO member states increased by 10 in one fell swoop. Please pay attention to the countries named by Dick. It can be said that in 2004, the only gates between NATO and Russia were Belarus and Ukraine.
If NATO continues to infiltrate Belarus and Ukraine, this means that American missiles can be placed directly on Russia's doorstep. Let's think about it later: NATO was created to resist Soviet pressure. It stands to reason that after the collapse of the USSR, NATO should also be dissolved like the Warsaw Pact. The reality, however, is that NATO's expansion has never stopped. Georgia in 2008 and Crimea in 2014 are the best examples. Knowing the basic facts, Dicchu summed up the current situation in Russia with this sentence: use tactical initiative to alleviate strategic passivity! Translation: You've arrived at my door. If I don't take the initiative, I won't be able to live in this life.
Okay, with Russia out of the way, let's talk about Ukraine. The first thing to understand is this: the Ukraine you see today is not representative of the vast majority of Ukrainians. American Democracy, the Republican Party, the European Union, Soros **, etc., all have their own spokesmen in Ukraine. You can even see a lot of Ukrainians with dual citizenship of the United States and Ukraine**. As for Ukrainian capital, having found out that it could make a lot of money just by expressing anti-Russian sentiments, it decisively abandoned the real industry. This is indeed the political version of Pavlov's experiment.
Therefore, in this kind of situation where people and ghosts are showing off and only the Ukrainian people are beaten, we really can't have too much sympathy for Ukraine. Of course, mockery is mockery. Normally, sandwiched between the European Union, Russia and the United States, what Ukraine needs to do is to be good at fighting on both sides and let the Ukrainian people live a very rich life. But this requires a great deal of political wisdom and a unified national will. Unfortunately, we simply do not see these two points in Ukraine. On the contrary, what we see is that it is squeezing northward with its pointed head, and at the same time desperately provoking Russia in the eastern part of Ukraine. By the way, just as Diqiu was writing the article, Ukrainian ** and actor Zelensky desperately called** the leaders of 27 other European countries to ask if he could join NATO, but did not get a reply. It seems that reality does respond to the statements of netizens: because of the epidemic, the verbal support of the United States and Europe for Ukraine has all shifted from offline to online.
Well, now we can't help but ask the question: who benefits from this fight? In fact, since the beginning of 2022, we have already smelled war. For example, at the beginning of the year, the five permanent members of the Security Council went so far as to issue the Joint Statement on the Prevention of Nuclear War and the Avoidance of an Arms Race without any warning. Moreover, all five rascals used their full names. It's chilling like your parents suddenly calling you by your full name at home. Today's Russia-Ukraine war seems to make us understand the true meaning of this sentence.
That's Ukraine. Russia is going to war. How much can the EU and the United States help, but only if everyone does not use the knife (nuclear **) Germany and France found that if there is a war, Europe as the main battlefield, there will inevitably be a large amount of capital flight. This is definitely a very, very bad outcome for the EU today. As a result, we saw that Macron quickly flew to Moscow to find Putin to put out the fire, and the new German chancellor was also vague about Nord Stream 2.
To sum up: the EU is doing the job of extinguishing this war. And what about the United States? Two words are on fire. Judging by today's results, the U.S. war effort can only be said to be half successful. Before the gunshots could be fired, the major European capitals had begun to flee under the continuous fire of the United States. In the plans of the Americans, capital inevitably fled to the United States in large numbers to avoid risks. However, the reality is that the RMB has continued to strengthen recently, and even the USD/CNH exchange rate has reached 630。In other words: a lot of capital feels that the renminbi can replace some of the dollars as the new safe-haven currency. Of course, the strength of the renminbi is also inseparable from every Chinese who takes epidemic prevention seriously. In addition to funding, there are also resources. With the suspension of approval of the Russian-led Nord Stream 2 project, gas ** is a big issue for Europeans. As a result, the Americans burst into tears on the surface and rejoiced in their hearts, supplying Europe with a large amount of liquefied natural gas. Of course, it's definitely at a premium. You see: capital flows from Europe to the United States, selling gas to make a fortune. The Americans are like Qin Shi Huang who pressed the switch: they won!
But there is a danger to doing so: From Syria to Afghanistan to Ukraine, the United States is constantly draining its national credibility. This has far-reaching implications for the Middle East, Africa, Asia, and even South America, its backyard. A question naturally comes to mind for many young people or those who talk about the region: Can the United States still feed when it is old? You know, the establishment of prestige is a very long process, and the collapse of prestige may be in an instant!
Finally, of course, there is the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on us in China. Di Qiu feels that for us, who are far from the core battlefield, it is the best choice to continue to stand firmly behind Russia. After all, it is foreseeable that Europe and the United States will impose crazy sanctions on Russia next. Of course, after the experience of 2008 and 2014, Russia today is no longer afraid of sanctions. China is the world's largest exporter of wheat and natural gas. Moreover, the internal economy is completely independent of external investments. By the way, today foreign exchange in Russia is dominated by ** and euros. It's not about the dollar. Even if the United States says that it will freeze all Russian assets in the United States, the problem is that they do not have any assets on them. To put it bluntly, you've run out of tricks, and now all that's left is incompetent rage. What we need to do is to supply Russia with what it cannot produce on its own. For example, some industrial products needed in life. Even in more extreme cases, the two countries can barter. In other words: because of the natural complementarity of the economic structure, the alliance between China and Russia will not bring losses to either side, but will benefit both sides.
I know, now you will say that Russia swallowed up our Northeast and the Ili Valley. But imagine this: if we had a very deep exchange of interests with Russia, one day we could even help solve the problem of pensions that Russia could not pay. Will these problems still be problems then? Well, since the war is not over yet, and the direction of the future is not particularly clear, today I will talk about Russia and Ukraine first. Of course, I will continue to monitor the outcome of this war and the way forward. If you have any other comments or expectations on this matter, you can share them in the comment area. Perhaps, you are the prophet! I'm Brother Qiu, see you next time!