Today (February 21), A-shares rose again.
The performance of the major broad-based indices of A-shares 20240221
Data**: wind
Wind data shows that the Shanghai Composite Index closed up 097%, intradayAt one point, it was close to 3,000 points. In the past 6 trading days (February 6 to February 21), the cumulative amount is **921%。
After 6 consecutive yin and 6 consecutive yang, ** has almost regained the "lost ground" since the beginning of the year.
The trend of the Shanghai Composite Index since 2024.
Data**: wind
Market sentiment is also improving further.
Today's market turnover is close to one trillion again, and there is no ** drop limit.
The net inflow of northbound funds in a single day was 1359.5 billion yuan, a new high since July 28, 2023.
As the saying goes, it's hard to buy a cow and turn back.
Many friends shouted the famous slogan again:
*It is for illustrative purposes only and does not constitute any investment reference or advice.
Invest prudently. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
From a market point of view, after a continuous stock index, there may be a **, and it is not surprising that it will rise and fall.
We can't guess tomorrow's ups and downs, and we won't go to the short-term market direction. Investment needs a "telescope", and this wave of A-shares is not "water without a source and a tree without roots":
1. Financial data reveals positive signals
Domestic fundamentals are still being repaired, and financial data "exceeded expectations", revealing positive signals.
According to central bank data, new RMB loans were 492 trillion yuan, 6 new social finance5 trillion yuan (an increase of 506.1 billion yuan year-on-year), all exceeding market expectations and achieving a good start.
Credit demand from both households and businesses improved, with M1 growing 5% year-on-year9% (previous value 1.)3%), which also exceeded market expectations.
These may be related to the availability of fiscal funds, and the large increase in residents' short-term loans and medium- and long-term loans indicates that the downward interest rate has boosted residents' willingness to increase leverage.
In addition, the general direction of monetary policy orKeep it loose.
The RRR cut at the end of January and yesterday's LPR rate cut both exceeded market expectations, and the main tone of future monetary policy may still be loose.
From a seasonal point of view, liquidity is usually looser after the Spring Festival, and high-frequency economic data is expected to continue to improve, and economic improvement is often the root of the upside.
2. Consumption data boosted
Residents' consumption capacity and willingness to consume are resilient, and there is high potential for future demand release.
The direction of economic recovery has not changed, and with the gradual implementation of the policy of expanding domestic demand, the precautionary savings accumulated by residents in the early stage are expected to be gradually released into actual consumer demand.
According to the Ministry of Transport, this year's Spring Festival passenger traffic may increase by 13% year-on-year, and the national cross-regional flow of people may reach 9 billion person-times, which is expected to hit a record high.
In terms of movie box office, the box office of movies during the Spring Festival holiday exceeded 8 billion yuan, and the number of moviegoers exceeded 1300 million people, an increase from the same period last year.
3. Policy "care".
The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has strengthened comprehensive supervision and "zero tolerance" law enforcement to effectively support the stabilization of the capital market, including the entry of Huijin into the market, the optimization of securities lending, the suspension of the refinancing of new ** companies, the enhancement of investment value of listed companies, and mergers and acquisitions, etc., which directly hit the pain points of the market.
First, before the holiday, the China Securities Regulatory Commission disclosed a number of penalties for market violations of laws and regulations.
On the enterprise side, we will intensify the crackdown on illegal activities such as fraudulent issuance and financial fraud, especially mentioning the implementation of the concept of "declaration is responsibility"; According to wind data, as of February 8, 2024, 42 companies have withdrawn their IPO applications in 2024, doubling the year-on-year growth.
On the investment side: The China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with the Ministry of Public Security, severely punished the malicious short-selling behavior of manipulating the market, focusing on the investigation and punishment of violations of laws and regulations such as the trading of ** by multiple practitioners, and the punishment of violations in bond issuance.
Second, on February 6, ** Huijin announced the expansion of the scope of ETF holdings, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission actively responded to support it.
Third, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) said that it will further strengthen the supervision of securities lending business, and the overall risk of the "two financing" financing business will be controllable, and it will guide securities firms to maintain the flexibility of the liquidation line by extending the time of insurance call and dynamically lowering the liquidation line, so as to reduce the risk of forced liquidation and market pressure.
4. Cost-effective, keen response to good
The current market may have come to a historically cost-effective position, and the value of medium and long-term investment is expected to be highlighted.
February 2, 2024Stock-bond yield spreadIt has exceeded 4%, higher than the historical 9737% of trading days.
Data**: Mini Program A-share thermometer.
February 2, 2024Equity-to-earnings ratioIt has already exceeded 1, a record high.
Data**: Mini Program A-share thermometer.
Wind data shows that on February 2, 2024, the number of A-shares breaking the net reached 703, accounting for 13 of all A-shares14%。
In terms of the proportion of broken net shares, it is currently higher than 99% of trading days in history.
Sketching of the small base run
Data**: Wind Expiration Date: 20240202
*The investment value for money may be higher.
While high cost performance is not a sufficient reason to invest, historically high cost performance may mean that the index is more sensitive to positive reactions. For details, see "Have A-shares "bottomed out"? These 7 indicators are for reference".
5. Recognition of Greater China assets by foreign investors
Recently, U.S. stocks and Chinese concept stocks have been strong**.
Wind data shows that from February 1 to 20 this year, the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon IndexSignificantly outperformed the Nasdaq index (3.) over the same period08%), the S&P 500 (268%), indicating that the recognition of foreign investors in Greater China assets has been restored.
6. Short-term event catalysis
"Rate cuts".
The LPR cut has released a positive signal of counter-cyclical adjustment and stable growth, providing strong support for the sustained economic recovery.
SORA is introduced
It is expected to further stimulate the market's expectations for the continuous innovation ability of the AI industry, drive a new round of prosperity in the industry, or help related sectors.
Regulate quantitative trading
For violations of laws and regulations that affect the normal trading order of the market and damage the legitimate rights and interests of investors, we will always maintain a strict tone and a high-pressure posture of "zero tolerance", respond quickly and strike hard, and jointly maintain the normal trading order of the market.
Boosted by six positive factors, A-shares have been booming recently.
In the face of such a market, some people are ready to move, some people will be suspicious, some people will be cautious, and some people will watch the show with empty positions.
Both bull and bear markets "come out", and a clear context may be visible after the fact, but almost no one can be accurate beforehand**.
The more lively the market, the more we need to remain calm and rational.
If you're a long-term investor and believe in time and the power of good companies, then the recent ups and downs are more just talk.
If you are more interested in short-term games, you may have to bear greater stock price fluctuations and psychological fluctuations, and you are more likely to be "manipulated" by market sentiment, so you need to find the right company and the right time to buy and sell. It's hard, but I wish you success.
Key references.
1. Shenwan Hongyuan's "Seize the Current Medium and Long-term Layout Opportunities of A-shares" 20240218
2. Ping An** "What are the new changes at home and abroad during the Spring Festival?" 》20240218