It s cool, but don t dare to hope for a bull market!

Mondo Finance Updated on 2024-02-08

Although the overall market rose sharply, and various indices took off, todayMicro-cap stocks fell another 9%.

I just took a look at the **.

In the second half of last year, when micro-cap stocks were the hottest, several private equity companies directly set up indexes to chase up micro-cap stocks**.

As a result, the drawdown was 35% in 2 months. Today, the maximum drawdown is as high as 44%.

*Net worth dropped rapidly from 1 at the time of its inception in September last year to 065。

In addition to private placements, there are also public offerings. Now the public offering does not announce the ** valuation, but I can show you this.

According to the **valuation, the list of the top decliners today is as follows:

Isn't that a coincidence? Isn't it the list of the hottest batch of micro-cap stocks in the second half of last year?

At that time, I remember that the big Vs also engaged in various research and analysis, what are the top ten microdisk evaluations, top ten quantitative evaluations, top ten active quantitative evaluations, and so on.

After studying for a long time, we will eventually find that any research is useless, and those who should fall will fall sooner or later.

The reason for the previous outperformance is to put it bluntly, catering to the market style, that is, the market style of small and micro cap stocks. That's all.

Once the style is reversed, the performance all collapses. The above-mentioned ** has generally fallen by 30% this year.

I've reminded you many times of the huge risks of small and micro cap stocks, and our readers shouldn't be stepping on the pitfalls. Now, it's worth looking at the valuation distribution of the market again.

If you want to study carefully, you can look at the numbers slowly, so I'll go straight to the conclusion.

Overall,A-shares still present a spectacle that the smaller the market capitalization, the lower the quality of the company, and the higher the valuation.

This is the opposite of the US stock market. U.S. stocks are the big guys in front with high valuations, and the small companies in the back have very average valuations unless they grow fast.

Specific to the index,CSI 500(a** value ranking 301 800) and CSI 300 (a** value top 300) valuations have a certain degree of benchmarking.

Compared with the CSI 300, the CSI 1000 (A** value 801 1800) and the CSI 2000 (A** value 1801 3800) will not see the strong rationality of the valuation for the time being.

Among these small and mid-cap stocks, there must be a group of companies that are fast-growing and reasonably valued and worthwhile. But it's hard to see big opportunities overall.

So the point of view remains the same, or it is recommended for everyoneThe top 800 A-share companies are the main investment objects. From the perspective of the first position, the CSI 300 and the CSI 500 are still used as the bottom position for asset allocation.

In addition, Hang Seng Technology (i.e. China General) has good asset quality and higher dividend buybacks, but its valuation is significantly lower than that of A-share non-financial cyclical stocks.

That's all for the technique, and I'll talk a little bit about it at the end.

*The most terrible thing is not the rapid reversal of style, nor the big change of face of **net worth, but our cognitive error.

Many people know that there are a large number of junk stocks in A-shares that have been hiding behind and have not been delisted for a long time, but on the other hand, they are chasing small and micro cap stocks and enjoying the benefits brought by the speculation of small and micro cap stocks.

Keep buying, keep earning, continue to buy, continue to earn, in a trance, as if these are all from their own excellent investment wisdom, from the accurate and unique stock selection strategy of the ** manager.

*This happens from time to timeWrong reward mechanism.

You know you've done something wrong, but you're rewarded greatly.

It will make you overestimate your abilities, methods, and values, and make you accelerate down a wrong path and refuse to turn back.

When this road is extremely congested, it is also the time when the stampede ** erupts. This is true for the white horse in 2021, and the same is true for small and micro cap stocks in 2024.

In the same way, ** also appears from time to timePenalties for mistakes.

Obviously you did the right thing, but you were beaten up by fat for some reason.

It will make you question your abilities, methods, and values, and drive you to abandon the right ways and adopt the wrong solutions, until you are beaten up again soon after.

For example, A-shares have been brainless and emotional under the liquidity crisis this year. If you blindly amplify panic, doubt yourself, doubt the value itself, and choose to cut the meat, it will only be wrong again.

The next grid refers to 27。The current violence is not only the entry of the national team, but also the correction of the previous obviously wrong emotions. The correction can continue, but the bull market does not dare to hope for the time being. See you in the comments section!

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