IT Home reported on January 10 that Tianfon ** analyst Ming-Chi Kuo released a market investment briefing todayIt said that mainstream Android phone brands have started inventory replenishment in the third quarter of 2023 and are expected to end in January 2024.
Note: The so-called "inventory replenishment" refers to the need for a large number of replenishment of goods due to the substantial and psychological impact of the economic crisis, which will lead to a large number of replenishment of goods during the economic crisis.
However, such replenishment does not mean that the market has strong spending power, and economic indicators will show strong growth in data.
The briefing is attached by IT House as follows:
Inventory replenishment for major Android phone brands starting in 3Q23 is expected to end in January 2024. Judging from the change in shipment estimates and order visibility,The improvement in demand for Android phones may be lower than market expectations.
At present, in other markets outside China, the shipment estimate of low-end mobile phones has begun to be loweredIt is common to see more than double-digit cut orders, and local brands in emerging markets even haveUp to 40 50% more cut orders
Whether demand in China improves after inventory replenishment depends on the sales results in the first 3 weeks of the Lunar New Year. However, it should be noted that since the end of the Double 11 peak season last year, the overall shipment has begun to decline yoy, although it has improved slightly recently, but it is mainly for the Lunar New Year peak season stocking, not necessarily because of the market demand.
In addition to changes in shipment estimates, order visibility is also a key factor in judging whether demand is improving. Whether it is a Chinese or non-Chinese market, the visibility of orders is from2-6 months for 2h4 shortened to about 2 months for 1h24It can be seen that brand manufacturers are conservative about the follow-up market demand.
Near-term trading risks may come from the market's expectation that it will be seen after the inventory is replenishedImprovement in the demand structure. I think even if there is no structural improvement in the demand for Android phones, there is limited room for downward revision. But the risk is that the market expects to see an improvement in demand after the inventory is replenished (which is also reflected in many mobile phone industry-related **previous**).