Since the beginning of 2024, the domestic chemical sector has continued to decline, among which the paraxylene (Px) market is particularly interesting. The main PX contract has started a round of ** since it hit a low of 8,092 yuan ton on December 14, 2023, but it has fallen back to the downward trend after hitting a high of 8,742 yuan ton on January 2 this year. The PX market is weak, with excess and sluggish demand dominant.
From the perspective of the first end, the domestic PX ** remains high, and there is no device maintenance plan in the short term. As the U.S. gasoline crack spread fell in October 2023, the demand for aromatic blending oil decreased, and South Korea's toluene** also declined, which in turn led to a recovery in the operating load of Asian PX. The domestic PX operating load has also gradually recovered, but on December 28 last year, the 2.6 million ton unit of Guangdong Petrochemical was unexpectedly shut down, resulting in a decline in the domestic PX operating load. However, the device was restarted on January 6 this year.
On the demand side, the operating load of PTA, a downstream product of PX, is relatively stable. At present, the PTA processing difference is around 250 yuan ton, which is at the seasonal normal level. However, this year, the proportion of mainstream first-class merchants signed contracts is low, and there is an expectation of a large accumulation of inventory. It is expected that the load of polyester factories will drop sharply in February with the Spring Festival holiday, and the increase in inventory pressure may force PTA factories to reduce their operating load.
Overall, the PX market is currently facing the dual pressure of excess and sluggish demand. The future direction of the PX market will depend on changes in supply and demand,** volatility and the recovery of the global economy. Investors are advised to pay close attention to market dynamics and operate cautiously. At the same time, PX manufacturers need to pay attention to their own business conditions and reasonably arrange production plans to cope with market changes.