Read: India is negotiating a long-term contract with Rosneft for 500,000 barrels per day.
A large eastern country, which has almost made up for 80% of lost exports due to the EU's refusal to buy Russian oil, soared to 92 million tonnes in 2023, with the rest of the gap being filled mainly by other countries in the Asia-Pacific region.
India, as a major market for future oil demand growth, is attracting fierce competition from OPEC+ members and countries under Western sanctions, such as Russia, Iran and Venezuela, and in less than two years, Russian oil exports to India have grown from zero to about 7 million to 9 million tons per month. The IEA expects India's oil demand to grow faster than anywhere else in the world by 2030, with demand expected to increase by 1.2 million b/d to 6.6 million b/d, compared to a total global growth of 3.3 million b/d.
The current tensions in the Middle East are likely to intensify competition for the Indian market. Despite the fact that data at the end of last year showed that Russian exports did not decrease, its share in the Indian market remained at 35-40%. The Indian market is more competitive compared to the Chinese market, where 42% of India's imports from Russia (38.7 million mt) are still paid in US dollars and the rest in UAE dirhams, while settlements in local currency have become unreasonable due to rupee exchange issues and ** imbalances. As for the situation in the Red Sea, experts believe that this will have little effect on the competitiveness of Russian oil and will not affect its share of the Indian market, since the freight rates of all oil ** merchants have increased. Since the beginning of December 2023, the freight rate of Suezmax tankers has increased by **19 times to $26 per ton (Middle East-Mediterranean). Interestingly, Russia and OPEC producers do not actually compete with each other. The OPEC+ deal involves not only joint control of the volume, but also a gentlemen's agreement on the division of the market: the countries of the Middle East have imposed an import embargo on Russia for Europe, and Russia has significantly increased its interest in the Asia-Pacific region. The countries of the Middle East received a premium European market, although this is the market with minimal growth potential, while Russia was able to turn its ** to new markets, albeit with a certain discount. Most of the ** in India and China are based on long-term contracts. India also wants to expand its long-term scale to ensure a certain amount of purchases from Russia. The demand for raw materials is likely to increase due to the expansion of processing capacity in India. Taking into account the development of the situation in the Middle East, this will reduce the ** of Saudi Arabia, Iraq and, accordingly, increase the demand for Russian oil. The Indian market is the fastest-growing market, but it is more convenient for Russian companies to export oil to China. Last year, China imported 10.7 billion tons of Russian oil, which is mainly shipped to China through Far Eastern ports and pipelines. For Russian companies, such an export is more profitable than shipping to India, since the cost of transportation is lower. And Urals oil from Russia's western ports, after losing the European market, is more profitable to be shipped to India than to China. **Overseas**Report**10,000 Fans Incentive Plan [The content of this article is written for the purpose of collecting information from many overseas** and analyzing it, and is only for learning and exchange].