Acquisition of a world class copper mine in Zambia? The third carriage of China s copper industry

Mondo Finance Updated on 2024-02-01

Recently, according to foreign media news, Canada's First Quantum Minerals (First Quantum Minerals) is negotiating with Jiangxi Copper to ** its stake in Zambia copper mines. **The specific details of the deal have not yet been finalized, and it is unclear whether the deal will eventually go through, citing people familiar with the matter.

First Quantum Minerals is one of the fastest-growing international mining companies of the past decade. In 2022, First Quantum produced 77With 60,000 tonnes of copper, it is the world's seventh-largest copper producer. But helplessly, in 2023, First Quantum suffered a heavy blow in Panama, and its Cobre Panama, one of the world's largest copper mines, which accounts for about 40% of the company's revenue, was ordered to close. It is reported that the first quantum has about 10The $500 million debt is due in early 2025, and if Cobre Panama is permanently closed, it could lead to a default on its debt in the event of a loss of 40% of its revenue.

As early as 2019, Jiangxi Copper was interested in acquiring First Quantum's Zambian mine, but these negotiations ultimately ended with Jiangxi Copper acquiring First Quantum's stake instead of the mine's equity, according to related reports. In 2019, Jiangxi Copper through a wholly-owned subsidiary to 11$15.9 billion for a consideration of approximately 12.4 billion shares (18.8 of its issued shares.)015%), Jiangtong indirectly wholly owned by Jiangtong has become the largest shareholder of the international copper giant First Quantum. At present, Jiangtong has increased its shareholding in First Quantum to 19 through a capital increase5%。But by the miner in 2020 formulated"Poison Pill Taeover Defence" strategic policy restricts Jiangxi Copper from acquiring more than 20% of the equity.

Currently, First Quantum owns 80% of the Kansanshi Mine and 100% of the Sentinel Mine in Zambia, and the rest of the shares in the Kansanshi Mine are owned by Zambia**. Zambia Sentinel Copper Mine Assay and Indicated Resource of 828.2 billion tonnes grading 045% with a reserve of 721.7 billion tonnes grading 046%。The mine was officially put into commercial operation in the fourth quarter of 2016 with a total designed production capacity of 28-300,000 tonnes per annum, and in 2022, the annual copper production of the Sentinel Copper Mine was 2424.51 million tons. The Kansanshi Mine in Zambia, one of the largest copper mines in Africa, reached commercial production in August 2005. At present, it has 10 million tons of copper resources and a production capacity of 250,000 tons of copper; The supporting copper smelter was put into operation at the end of 2014 to process the copper concentrate produced by Kansanshi and Sentinel, with a designed annual concentrate capacity of 1.2 million tons, an annual output of 300,000 tons of copper and 1 million tons of sulfuric acid.

In the quarter ending September 2023, the two Zambian mines created a total of 9$4.3 billion in revenue and $2$100 million in operating profit. Based on these earnings, the valuation of the two mines could be around US$6 billion. It's just that I don't know if Jiangxi Copper will eventually buy one of them, or buy part of the shares.

For a long time, Jiangxi Copper has been making money from copper processing. Jiangxi Copper produced a total of 210,000 tons of copper concentrate in 2014, and 20 in 202240,000 tons, it can be said that it is standing still. In terms of copper cathode, the output in 2014 was 1.2 million tons, and the output in 2022 increased slightly to 1.84 million tons, an increase of nearly 640,000 tons. The lack of self-sufficiency in raw materials and low processing rates have also resulted in a large revenue but low profits. In 2022, according to the annual report of Jiangxi Copper, the company's total operating income in 2022 will be 47993.8 billion yuan, net profit attributable to the parent company of 599.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64%。From the perspective of business structure, "copper cathode" is the main operating income of the enterprise. Specifically, the operating income of "copper cathode" was 25180.3 billion yuan, accounting for 526% with a gross margin of 31%。

Taking Zijin Mining's 2022 data as a comparison: in terms of revenue: Jiangxi Copper is the 17754 times; Net profit attributable to the parent company: Zijin Mining is the 33437 times; Deduction of non-net profit: Zijin Mining is the 36053 times; Comprehensive gross profit margin: Zijin Mining 1574%, Jiangxi Copper 299%, Zijin Mining far surpasses Jiangxi Copper. At present, Jiangxi Copper has five wholly-owned mines, namely Dexing Copper Mine (including Tongchang Mining Area, Fujiawu Mining Area, Cinnabar Red Mining Area), Yongping Copper Mine, Chengmenshan Copper Mine (including Jinjiwo Silver and Copper Mine), Wushan Copper Mine and Yinshan Mining Company. Dexing Copper Mine is the core mine of the company. With an annual output of about 15-160,000 tons of copper, Dexing Copper Mine is the largest open-pit copper mine in Asia. In terms of overseas copper mines, Jiangtong owns projects such as the Mes Aynak copper mine in Afghanistan, but none of them have been put into production. If it can obtain the copper mine of Canada's First Quantum Minerals in Zambia this time, it can directly "create another Jiangtong" in terms of copper concentrate production. Jiangxi Copper, Luoyang Molybdenum and Zijin Mining will form the three-legged stand of China's copper industry!

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