This is a prophecy series.
It's February now, and the whole network is writing about the rework fever, and the traffic is congested and you can't grab tickets.
But believe it or not?
At the end of March or the beginning of April, it's time to mention the unemployment shortage.
The reason is very simple, this wave of people who were laid off at the end of last year all pointed to looking for jobs now, but the Spring Festival covered up the problem of unemployment.
If these people can find a job at the beginning of the year, it's fine.
If these people can't find a job at the beginning of the year, then all the problems should come out.
Unemployment data is easy to find.
I won't list it, just talk about it.
You can wait for Tencent Ali's financial report to come out, see how many of their workers are less, you can also go to the pulse to see how many of these companies have opened, or what, you can look at the news on various job search software, and how much.
At the end of last year, Douyin laid off the game department, and NetEase also carried out optimization.
But at the end of last year, unemployment had not yet erupted.
Because the layoffs are all big factories.
Large factories and small factories are different, small companies don't talk much about decency, and when they open, they will open, and they don't say anything.
But large companies, especially large factories, are very decent, even if they are opened, they are all opened according to the standards, and those who can give N+1 will be given, if you are that kind of thorn, communicate well with the HR team, and it is not impossible to give you 2N.
It is easy to please God, but it is difficult to send God.
You don't care what the purpose of layoffs is in large factories, but in terms of compensation for layoffs, to be honest, it is really not bad.
What is the reason for this?
People who are laid off by large factories are not panicked in a short time.
Because I got a large amount of money in a short period of time, even if I have a mortgage or something, it can cover it for a while, so everyone is willing to wait a little longer.
And what's it?
No, you can't wait.
Last year, the layoffs of large factories were all in the third and fourth quarters, and at that point in time, even if you went to run the recruitment process, it was difficult to run.
Because recruitment is like this, it doesn't matter how good you are, the key is to see if the market needs you.
If there is, then it is fine, if not, then there is no way.
Right, no matter how good you are, the market doesn't need it, and you don't have a chance.
This is especially true for high-end positions.
What about high-end jobs?
Each position has to be responsible for a piece, you seem that the people in these positions do not do human work, people or dogs can do it, but in fact, these high-end positions have a certain meaning, and generally inexperienced people, headhunters really dare not recruit.
It's not that I'm afraid of trial and error, but I'm afraid that I can't take responsibility for problems, because with experience, I can push it on the individual, and if I don't have experience, I have to find someone to take the blame.
Modern society is no longer the time when the Qin and Han dynasties fought for hegemony.
Han Xin can directly become a general, not because of Han Xinniu, but because of Xiao Heniu.
So now a large supply of labor in the market is waiting.
Wait for the demand to arise in society, and then sell yourself again.
The smarter the worker, the clearer it is that it is not a good thing to be in a hurry to sell, because the more anxious you are, the lower your bargaining space.
It's better to wait a little longer, wait for the demand.
Our needs here are also very simple, the school recruitment is the spring and autumn recruitment, it has passed, and now we will wait for the end of the New Year.
In a word, no matter how urgent it is, everyone will not look for a job during the Spring Festival.
In fact, it is also the case for migrant workers.
You must know that our job market, not only white-collar workers, but also blue-collar workers, and even those manufacturing workers, is the real background of China's economy.
I visited a lot of companies last year, but what is the general situation?
Many factories were shut down in November, and the work that had been good in previous years was only done in December.
Looking at it again in January, in addition to those large factories, many companies were directly closed.
This is especially true for foreign trade enterprises, because Europe and the United States mainly spend Christmas, and foreign trade orders are almost over in November (after all, it takes time for shipping to pass).
But have you ever thought about one thing?
What about these closed factories?
I'll tell you straight away.
Directly on vacation, the salary for two or three months off will not be paid directly.
Do you think the workers are willing?
I definitely don't want to, but I don't have a choice, and the director also said that you can go to other places to see.
To put it bluntly, now in this market, if you don't do it, you have to do it.
Workers can't help it, but what's the matter?
Let's take a look at what the surrounding factories say, in fact, the workers who have been working for a long time have groups and friends, and they will help each other to inquire about the treatment of other factories, and if it doesn't work in the coming year, they will go to other factories to work.
But what is the problem now?
Everyone, it's not easy to do.
Those factories with good benefits have no plans to recruit people at all, and those factories that will still do it are not easy to do.
There's no way, you don't know the bottom line, it's too difficult to settle the money.
can only delay, drag on the Spring Festival, and see what everyone plans for the New Year, and whether there is anything to start work.
Just go in then.
That's what I'm talking about.
It's February, just after the Spring Festival, and all walks of life will be back in motion.
It's time to start recruiting, investing in projects, and so on.
Now is the time when the market demand is the largest, and it is also the time when the supply has accumulated for several years, so it depends on whether the current supply can meet these supplies.
But most likely not.
Last year's ** everyone knew that just after the epidemic, everyone was gearing up to do a big job, but 2023 became the worst in the history of the year, and it was good if the money was not lost.
This year's confidence is significantly worse than last year's.
It will still recruit people and invest, but it will be more cautious, so how do you think the number of jobs will be digested in this case?
Impossible. Now it's just jobs hanging here, and everyone still has hope, so let's try it.
As soon as this wave of jobs is gone, the market will be revealed in an instant.
At that point, something should go wrong.
Rest assured, this point in time will not be too far away, and it should be known at the end of March and the beginning of April.
At that time, it will not be a return fever, but a wave of unemployment.
**10,000 Fans Incentive Plan