The US CPI data for January, which has attracted the attention of the global financial circle, was released, and the result can be described as an unexpected black swan event.
Last week, the US released a revised CPI and it looked as if inflation in the US was under control. Therefore, the CPI of the market ** in January was 29%, back to the 2% range for the first time.
However, data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that CPI increased by 3 percent year-on-year in January1%, 02 percentage points.
Moreover, the CPI in January increased by 04%, also exceeding expectations.
It is clear that inflation is not effectively under control and prices are still stubborn**.
As soon as the news was announced, the global financial market immediately set off a violent **.
Among them, the international *** is the most obvious, falling below $2,000 per ounce. This is because inflation data is still on the high side, and the market expects the Fed's rate cut to be delayed significantly, and the dollar index is supported, which is weighed down.
At the same time, the market is also rushing, and the NASDAQ index is immediately 133%, with the S&P and the Dow following suit. Europe** also fell rapidly after the open.
In addition, U.S. Treasuries also appeared, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling by 8 basis points.
After the release of the CPI data, many people may sigh: no wonder the Federal Reserve unanimously favors a hawkish statement. Judging by the data, the stubbornness of inflation is really worrying. Cutting rates too early could lead to another sharp increase in inflation**.
However, if inflation persists and the Fed is unable to cut interest rates, the crisis in the US financial system could escalate further.
U.S. regulators have warned that U.S. shadow banks have received more than $1,000 billion in loans totaling more than $1,000 billion, which could pose systemic risks through leverage, according to the UK**.
These shadow banks include fintech companies and private credit groups that have secured $1,000 billion in loans from banks, amplified through leverage, to high-risk capital demanders.
However, due to the lack of information disclosure in shadow banking, it is difficult to be effectively regulated, and once a risk arises, the impact on the entire financial system will be very huge.
It seems that the United States is indeed in a quagmire. A rate cut could lead to inflation**, while a failure to cut rates could trigger debt risk.
How far can the United States go on this tightrope? Kunpeng Project