In November last year, there were rumors about the real estate white list, which was generally rumored to be 50 real estate companies at that time, and later rumored to more than 60 real estate companies. It was not until a few days ago that the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the Financial Monetary Authority jointly issued the "Notice on the Establishment of an Urban Real Estate Financing Coordination Mechanism" (document number: Jianfang 2024 No. 2) on January 5, which took out the rules for being included in the white list.
I try to keep the original text as few as possible, because everyone can see the original text, and I mainly talk about what is not in the original text).
1) Why is the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the HKMA jointly linked?
In terms of hierarchy, the HKMA is one level lower than the central mother, and is a subordinate unit of the central mother, and the HKMA is mainly responsible for risk management.
2) The three red lines are jointly established by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the central mother, why did the central mother be used in the face of risks at that time?
At that time, the HKMA was still the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission only managed the banking and insurance industries.
However, three years have passed, we have all seen the current results, and now the results are: bad, wrong, malignant, bad, deflationary, that is to say, the central mother can not do the risk management work of the real estate industry, although the central mother has many means, but her means are all involved in the whole body, she arbitrarily comes up with a means, it will have an impact on all industries, and she can not target an industry, a field to regulate. It is under these circumstances that the HKMA was created, and it can regulate and control a certain industry and a certain field.
3) Some details
This document is a notice, the object of the notice is the middle level of the local level, and it is clear that the first responsible person is the middle-level person in charge of urban construction, and the middle-level people belonging to the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the Financial Authority are also members. With the first person responsible, anything can be promoted!
4) What must be done?
Some real estate companies must be selected, and they must not be without, and they cannot be said that "our local real estate companies are very rich and do not need loans", they must have;
There must be collateral, which cannot depreciate and cannot be risked by the bank providing the funds;
It must be implemented, the results must be seen, and it cannot be said that there will be no follow-up halfway, and the results must be summarized every quarter.
The above was written on the evening of the 28th, and the following is continued on the evening of the 31st].
Today is the last day of January, if you have read the documents, you will know, the end of January is the deadline for the upper level to the middle level, and the list must be handed over by the end of January.
The "Notice" issued on January 5 published an article on the official website of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development on the 21st, and the screenshot is as follows:
Those who are familiar with it know that this kind of article is to interpret the market, and the purpose is to tell the documents on the official website in more straightforward language, so that the market can have more understanding.
One of the most important passages goes like this:
What I'm going to write next is not to oppose what is in the article, it's just that it's easy to understand
There are three main points:
First, the current de-conversion rate of various cities is different, and the gap in the number of new houses in stock is very large, and the whole village cannot be regulated by a one-size-fits-all approach.
Second, the differentiation will increase due to the city's policies, the better the better, the worse the bad.
Third, due to differences in cities, it is possible to cancel the mutual recognition of household registration in some areas.
I'll pass it because the point is at the end of the article
On January 26, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development held a special meeting for the white list, and the screenshot is as follows:
The meeting emphasized that "before the end of this month, the first batch of project lists can be used to obtain loans after landing", and I talked about the importance of "meeting emphasis", which is a dead order, so we saw it today, Nanning 3300 million loans.
Let's put it this way, it's really ...... for the whitelist
When a real estate company sets up a project, when planning how to get the land, how to design the drawings, how to use the labor and materials, it has been planned that the project will definitely make money, 100% money, if it does not make money, the real estate company will not shoot this land. But if you spend money to shoot the land, no matter how you toss, you can make money back, it's a big deal to learn from Li Chaoren, drag it out and don't develop it, and if you develop it again in the next few years, you will definitely be able to make money. Ten years later, the value of the land has appreciated, and the cost of selling the land can be recovered, and there is a high probability that there will be a profit.
Therefore, the project itself is to make money, and now saving any project is helping real estate companies to make money, real estate companies make money in this real estate, make money in that real estate, and save enough money, you can take this money to save your other real estate, so toss, all your real estate will live.
In this process, it is to prevent those properties that have failed, such as unfinished buildings before 19 years, such as real estate projects made for some middle-level performance, and it is important to prevent this kind of situation, there are many such situations, there is such a place in one place, and many places can not be counted together.
As an extra mention, the project itself makes money, why can real estate companies still thunder?
The thunderstorm of real estate companies is because of the business strategy of high turnover, and the "high turnover" that is often mentioned is not a derogatory term, it is a market strategy for business management, which is very ordinary, as long as it is in the rising period of the industry, it can use this strategy, it is no different from hunger marketing, it is a market strategy, high turnover can quickly seize market share, squeeze competitors, improve profit margins, establish brand image, the disadvantage is radical and high-risk, for example, I have 100 yuan, this 100 yuan is only enough to take land, build a house, sell a house, It stands to reason that I should wait for the houses to be sold, **110 or 120 yuan, and then I will go to get the land, build the house, and sell the house. But this operation is too slow, I operate according to high turnover, I take the land, mortgage the land for money, then take the land, then mortgage for money, and then take the land and mortgage for money, so that the round continues, at the same time, during this period, I will set aside a part of the money to build a house on the land taken in front, and when the house is built, the house is also mortgaged for money, and then the house is mortgaged for money, and so on and so on, this is high turnover.
High turnover has been in the real estate industry for more than 10 years, if there is a problem, it has long been a thunderstorm, this business strategy itself is no problem, the reason for the thunderstorm is self-evident.
As an additional mention, even if you don't use a high-turnover market strategy, you can't prevent thunderstorms with other strategies.
For example, as a real estate company, I am steady, I don't do high-risk things, there will always be other competitors in the market, today a real estate company A does high turnover, tomorrow a real estate company B does hunger marketing, the day after tomorrow a real estate company C does monopoly chain, the day after tomorrow a real estate company D does star effect, I ignore other real estate companies, I continue to work steadily and steadily, do quality, do quality, I have high quality, my profits must be low. At the end of the year, my real estate company will pay 13 salaries at most, and other real estate companies will send BBA, send national tours, and send a suite, and the next year my outstanding employees will go to other real estate companies, and I can't do it if I want to do quality. This is the process by which bad money drives out good money.
On January 29, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development released another picture, also so that everyone can understand the white list, and the screenshot is as follows:
In addition to the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the HKMA also had an article on January 26, screenshot below:
I won't interpret the content of the article, and I will directly throw out the conclusions.
Conclusion: Taking out one city and one policy from the toolbox shows that this is to introduce full competition, and the real estate industry between various cities will compete and survive the fittest. Analogous to the housing reform in 1998, when the matter of supporting housing was handed over to the market, and everyone no longer divided the house, can the enterprise build a house? What kind of house to build? Is the house big or small? Is it a building or a bungalow? How to do the house after-sales? These problems are all handed over to the market, it is this kind of full competition that stimulates the vitality of the market, my previous article said that rental housing + commercial housing can not be regarded as housing reform 20 or new housing reform, the independent regulation of one city and one policy is the new housing reform. The goal of the reform is to stimulate the vitality of the market, the manifestation of the reform is marketization, and the history of the reform refers to the rural land ownership system from 60 to 90 years.
The second conclusion: it is not yet at the point where real estate is powerful. The role of the whitelist is to inject water into the supply side, and only one end of supply and demand will be injected with water, and the result can be imagined by everyone, so I will not repeat it. In the next time, the housing ticket urban reform or monetized urban reform is the focus, and after the vigorous promotion of the urban reform, it is the low point of real estate and all related industries, and this low point is also the low point of the economy! After 2 years from this low, there will be a considerable improvement in house prices.
An additional conclusion: we have to understand that the rescue of the property market has happened, it is already history, this history is from the meeting in July last year to January this year, it has been half a year, and a lot of rules have been issued to save the property market in this half year, if the next 5 years, the house price continues to be **, the transaction volume is still not, then by the 6th year will be issued heavier rules, until the whole industry is pulled up.
The third conclusion: urban reform is to release water. Urban reform is a particularly good thing, I understand that many people talk about urban reform is not good, they will also talk about shed reform is not good, the reason is that the money given is too little, the money given is not enough to buy a new house, and they have to add their own money. For this reason, let's calmly think about it, why do we give less money? Is it because the previous house was small? Whether it is shed reform or urban reform, the most dilapidated houses are changed, many houses are still built in the 60s, the area is flat, the newly built houses are flat, some flat, according to the current market price to demolish the previous 30 square meters of small houses, of course, can not afford to buy 90 square meters of big houses, the middle of the difference of 60 square meters. But this 60 square meters is for self-improvement! I bought it for myself! It's only natural to spend money to buy things for yourself! If it is the extra money given by the urban reform to buy this 60 square meters, is it too much to eat? Is it taking advantage? Is it because you don't take advantage of the lack of money for urban reform? I can't understand such brain circuits!
If it were me, I would know that the money for urban reform came from the upper and middle classes, but where did the money come from the upper and middle classes? Isn't it just that we worked hard to earn it, but it was just handed over to the upper and middle layers to use, and now the middle level takes the money to collect my house, and I start asking for more than everyone else, am I embezzling the money of people who work as hard as me? (This topic can also lead to many topics, one of which is to enjoy the dividends of urban development, and the other is that the upper class sends money to help buy a house, and does not expand.) ）
I think that urban reform is to make money, if you don't pass the urban reform, it will be difficult to sell the house in the 60s and 70s, even if it is sold, can you sell it for a few dollars, and sell 30 square meters of old houses can you afford to buy 90 square meters of new houses? Buyers who buy 30 square meters of old houses will also sell their houses one day, and who will take over at that time? Could it be another buyer? I still need the upper floor to pick it up!
In addition, I would like to mention a very important thing: in the next six months, I will reduce the number of articles about real estate, just reduce, and I will also post articles, if you have ideas or questions, you can discuss them privately.
The reason for reducing the real estate article is this, let me give a chestnut to illustrate: for example, I am the boss of the company, the big boss, I have 5 project directors under my hands, each director with a different number of project managers, the project manager also with different types of work combined into the project team, I also have 10 sales directors, each director with a sales manager, the sales manager also with some sales staff, I also have a sales management team, I also have a few functional departments, the whole company Wuyang Wuyang four or five hundred people. I announced on the day of Laba that I would eat seafood buffet at the annual dinner, and then a director popped up and said that I was allergic to seafood, and then a manager said that I was also allergic, and I can take allergy medicine for allergies, and then an executive said that I would go into shock if I was allergic, don't eat seafood, and then a few people popped up and put forward their own different views, and then ......There is no solution to this matter, and it will not be solved until Chinese New Year's Eve.
The best way is: I am the boss, everyone will listen to me alone, have opinions or suggestions privately to the department boss, can solve the problems of each department by themselves, can not solve the problem and then summarize the unified solution with other solutions, everyone else shut up. The next half a year is the half year to keep your mouth shut, and when it comes to the critical moment, no one will allow others to be blind.
I would also like to mention another new rule, the HKMA's Notice on the Management of Operating Property Loans issued on 24 January
There is also a very important thing, I see that many people say that the white list is only for the national team, not for the amateur team, this is to put p, this is to open the eyes to put p, from last year to this year, the indicator is that the amateur team must be more than the national team, the index is so set, who dares to do it differently from the indicator? It's really about attracting attention, dare to say anything!
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