EVTark statistics show that global anode material shipments will reach 181 in 202380,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 168%, of which China's anode material shipments reached 17110,000 tons, and the global proportion further increased to 941%。
From the perspective of material structure, the shipment of new anode materials represented by silicon-based anode has increased significantly, and the proportion of shipments of overall anode materials in China has reached 34%, and the shipment volume of silicon-based anode will become the fastest growing segment in the field of anode materials.
As an important carbon raw material, graphite has also achieved rapid growth driven by the growth of power batteries, for example, the shipment of artificial graphite anode materials will account for 82 percent in 20235%, compared to 793% again.
As one of the "three major parts" of lithium batteries, the anode material is as important as the cathode material and electrolyte. Shipments of anode materials are closely related to the growth of the electric vehicle market.
According to the "Development of China's New Energy Vehicle Power Battery Industry in 2024" jointly released by EVtank and Ivey Economic Research Institute, global power battery shipments will reach 865 in 20232GWh, up 265%。EVTark expects global EV battery shipments to reach 3,368 by 20308GWh, compared with 2023, there is still nearly 3 times the room for growth.
From a domestic point of view, in 2023, the cumulative installed capacity of China's power batteries will reach 3877 GWh, an increase of 316%。Among them, the installed capacity of ternary power batteries is 1262 GWh, up 143%, with a market share of 326%；The installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 261 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 4201%, accounting for 6732%。
The anode material of lithium batteries is usually made of graphite, because the multi-layer structure of graphite can hold lithium atoms; Silicon-based anode is a key technology for lithium-ion batteries to achieve ultra-fast charging and ultra-long battery life.
Therefore, the growth of shipments of both graphite and silicon-based anodes is due to the steady growth of the electric vehicle market and the accompanying strong growth in demand for semi-solid, large cylindrical, and high-nickel batteries.
Judging from the market share of China's major lithium-ion battery anode material companies in 2023, beiteri New Materials Group Co., Ltd. will occupy 22 with shipments of more than 3,000 tons74% market share, ranking first in the world in terms of shipments for 13 consecutive years.
Beiteri is a subsidiary of China Baoan Group Co., Ltd., with lithium-ion battery anode materials, cathode materials and new materials as its core products, and its anode business mainly includes natural graphite, artificial graphite and silicon-based anode.
It was followed by Shanghai Shanshan Technology***1683% market share. Founded in 1999, Shanshan Technology is the first high-tech enterprise specializing in the R&D, production and sales of lithium-ion battery anode materials in China.
Due to the incomparable cost-effective advantages of artificial anode materials, the penetration rate of artificial anode materials in the world will further increase to 84% in 2023, which is the most mainstream application in the current market. Shanshan Technology took the lead in this dimension, accounting for 19% of the market share in shipments.
The top 10 companies in the market share also include Jiangxi Zichen, Zhongke Xingcheng, Shangtai Technology, Dongguan Kaijin, Xiangfenghua, Guangdong Dongdao, Hebei Kuntian, and Jinhuineng.
Although anode materials have also entered a period of structural overcapacity, there is still room for growth. It is estimated that China's anode material shipments are expected to reach 5.8 million tons in 2030, of which artificial graphite is still the mainstream of the market, with shipments exceeding 4.7 million tons.
At the same time, 2024 will be a critical period for the industry to reshuffle, and the competition between new and old players will be more intense. At present, the market concentration of anode materials is high, the top 15 companies occupy more than 80% of the market share, and the remaining more than 80 companies will seize about 20% of the market, which is not cruel.
From a global perspective, it is expected that by 2030, the global shipment of anode materials will exceed 8 million tons, and graphite and silicon-based anode materials will still be in the stage of capacity expansion in 2024. So, graphite or silicon-based anode, which anode material is more optimistic in the market?
Graphite, especially artificial graphite, has always occupied the mainstream position of battery anode materials, and the battery life of electric vehicles has higher and higher requirements for battery energy density, but at present, the specific capacity of graphite has reached the physical limit of the material - 370mAh g, which cannot meet the higher and higher endurance needs of lithium batteries. Therefore, silicon-based anodes become a good choice.
The raw materials for silicon-based anodes are mainly composed of silicon materials and graphite. Silicon is alloyed with lithium at room temperature, and the theoretical specific capacity is 4200mAh g, which is more than ten times that of the current graphite anode materials.
Moreover, the silicon-based anode does not have the hidden danger of lithium evolution, the safety is better than that of graphite anode materials, the reserves are abundant, the cost is low, the fast charging performance is excellent, and more charges can be stored in the same volume, so that the battery can provide a longer battery life, and it is the most potential next-generation lithium battery anode material.
The 2170 battery in Tesla's Model 3 uses this new material, and domestic battery manufacturers CATL, BYD, and Guoxuan Hi-Tech have invested in the research and development of silicon anode batteries.
Moreover, it can be seen from the layout of car companies that the next few years will be the best time window for the brand of OEMs to rise, and high-end models will be intensively launched, and the demand for fast charging and energy supplementation is also expected to be further improved, and the advantages of high specific capacity of silicon carbon materials will gradually become prominent.
But the situation with silicon-based anode materials is not entirely rosy.
At present, silicon-based anode materials have indeed been implemented in some models, but there are some technical difficulties that have not yet been overcome, such as the problems of material fracture, chalking, and loss of electrochemical properties caused by the weak stability of silicon materials, the preparation of monocrystalline silicon, the preparation of porous silicon, the preparation of nano-silicon, and other material preparation problems, as well as the matching problems of silicon-based anode materials and cathode materials such as lithium cobalt oxide and ternary materials.
These problems need to be solved urgently, so silicon-based anode materials cannot rise to the mainstream position of battery anode materials in the short term.
From another point of view, it is not a promising choice to overcome the technical barrier of silicon-based anode materials and provide support for high-energy density batteries and high-range electric vehicles.
*: Nanshu Graphite Mine.
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