The property market has entered a cold winter, and even first-tier cities like Shenzhen are no exception, and two new policies have been urgently introducedThe first is to relax the definition of ordinary housing and cancel the 7.5 million luxury housing boundary. The second is to reduce the down payment ratio for the second house, from 6 or 7 percent to 4 percent.
These two new policies are undoubtedly a shot in the arm for the property market, aiming to stimulate demand for housing and boost market confidence. However, judging from the current situation, the effect is not obvious, the property market is still in a sluggish state, sales and sales volume continue to decline, and the entire real estate industry is in trouble, without a little vitality, which makes people feel confused.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first 10 months of 2023, the area of commercial housing sales nationwide was 9300 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 78%, which is 03 percentage points, the area of commercial housing sales in October was 0800 million square meters, down 110%, which is 0 more than the decline in the previous month8 percentage points.
It can be seen that more and more people have given up their plans to buy a house, the house cannot be sold, the developer is strapped for cash, and the land market is also sluggish. If the land revenue of the local government decreases, it will not be able to be invested in urban construction, resulting in the lag in the construction of supporting facilities such as subways, schools, parks, and roads.
In order to make up for the fiscal shortfall, some localities will have to find ways to increase revenue from other aspects, such as raising national highway tolls, oil prices, bus and subway fares, etc., which will eventually affect the lives of all residents.
As for the reasons for the sluggish sales of the property market, the analysis of the China Index Research Institute believes that it is mainly affected by factors such as housing price expectations and weak residents' income expectations, and it is difficult for the market to recover in the short term.
From January to October, the decline in the cumulative value of the sales area and sales amount of commercial housing across the country has expanded, but from the single-month data in October, the year-on-year decline in sales amount has narrowed for three consecutive months, narrowing to -8 in October1%, and the month-on-month decline in sales area also narrowed to -11%.
In such a situation, the property market has exhausted various means to recover, including the heavyweight policy of "shantytown reconstruction".
01 The "shed reform" in the past has created a large number of the richest people
"Shantytown reconstruction" refers to a project to demolish old, crowded, and dilapidated shantytowns in the city, build new housing, and improve the living conditions and quality of life of residents.
"Shed reform" has a history of decades in China, and since the 90s of the last century, there have been some pioneers in cities, such as the east of Beijing.
Fourth, west. Fourth, Nanluoguxiang and other hutongs, Shanghai's Nanjing Road, Huaihai Road and other commercial streets, Guangzhou's Liwan District, Yuexiu District and other old urban areas, have carried out some "shed reform" projects.
These projects have not only improved the appearance of the city and improved the quality of the city, but also brought huge benefits to the local residents. Many residents who used to live in shantytowns have become wealthy people by receiving large amounts of cash or new houses through demolition compensation.
What's more, some villagers in the demolition villages have obtained sky-high wealth through their own land and houses, and have become billionaires, even the richest man. For example, in Beijing's Chaoyang District, Wangjing Xiyuan District 4, which was once an obscure village, after demolition, each villager received an average of 1With a compensation of 500 million yuan, it became a "billionaire village".
Another example is Nantou Village, Nanshan District, Shenzhen, which was once a poor fishing village, and after demolition, each villager received an average of 2With a compensation of 500 million yuan, it has become a "multimillionaire village". Moreover, these villagers also own a large amount of equity and real estate, becoming real "local tyrants".
The stories of these demolished villages are undoubtedly a microcosm of "shed reform" and a miracle of "shed reform". They show the huge potential of "shed reform", and also inspire many people's "demolition dreams".
02 Will demolition become history?The answer is no
With the continuous advancement of "shantytown reform", many people believe that demolition has become a thing of the past, and there are no more shantytowns to demolish, and there are not so many demolition compensation to take. There seems to be some truth to this view, but is this really the case?
The answer is no. Demolition will not become history, but will continue to exist, and even have new forms and contents. Why?There are several reasons for this:
First, China's urbanization process has not yet been completed, and there are still many rural people who want to move to the cities
This means that the population pressure on the city will continue to increase, the demand for housing in the city will continue to expand, and the construction of the city will continue to accelerate. In this context, some old, dilapidated and unreasonable buildings in the city will become an obstacle to urban development, and they need to be demolished, updated and renovated. This is an important motivation for demolition.
Second, China's urban planning has not yet been perfected
There are still many urban functions to be optimized, there are still many urban spaces to be adjusted, and there are many urban facilities to be improved. In this context, some buildings in the city that do not conform to the plan, do not adapt to the function, do not coordinate the space, and do not meet the supporting facilities will also face demolition sooner or later.
03 The new regulations of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the second generation of demolition may be about to reappear
Just when everyone thought that demolition and relocation had become a thing of the past, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development suddenly announced: Megacities are actively and steadily promoting the transformation of urban villages, which are divided into three types for implementation. One is to carry out demolition and new construction if it meets the requirements, the other is to carry out normalized remediation and upgrading, and the other is to combine demolition and consolidation between the two.
Although the transformation of urban villages is carried out in the form of demolition and transformation, demolition and relocation are still inevitable, which means that the "second generation of demolition" may appear again.
For this situation, some professionals believe that the old community may be about to usher in an "appreciation tide".
04 This kind of house is going to appreciate in value?It's right to know in advance!
In the wave of urban village transformation, there is a type of house that may usher in an opportunity for appreciation, that is, the house in the old community.
The houses in the old community refer to those built in the 80s or 90s of the last century, which have a history of twenty or thirty years, with outdated facilities, poor environment and chaotic management. These houses, often located in the center of the city, have convenient transportation and complete surrounding facilities, but because they are in disrepair and of low quality, they are relatively low.
These houses may become the focus of urban village renovation because they have the following characteristics:
First, they occupy the core resources of the city, but they do not play as well as they should.
Although these houses have good locations, they affect the beauty and comfort of the city because of their high building density, low greening rate and poor air quality. If it can be demolished or renovated to free up more space and improve more quality, it can make the city more livable and increase the value of the city.
Second, they have security risks, but they have not been effectively addressed.
These houses, because of their age and aging structure, have certain safety risks, such as water leakage, electricity leakage, cracking, etc. If it is not repaired or transformed in time, it may lead to accidents and endanger people's lives and property.
Thirdly, they have great potential for retrofitting, but they are not fully exploited.
These houses, although the appearance is dilapidated, but the interior space is still relatively spacious, if it can be reasonably designed and decorated, it can improve the function and taste of the house, so that residents can enjoy a better life. Moreover, these houses are relatively cheap, and if you can sell a higher ** after the renovation, you will be able to get a higher return.
Therefore, these houses may become the focus of urban village renovation, and may also become the focus of investors. If you want to make a fortune in the transformation of an urban village, or want to have a comfortable home in the heart of the city, then these houses are an opportunity you should not miss. It's right to know in advance!
List of high-quality authors