In the January edition of the Global Economic Prospects report, the World Bank once again warned that global economic growth is expected to slow for the third consecutive year, from 2.2 percent in 20236% to 2. in 20244 percent, nearly three-quarters of a percentage point below the 2010s average.
Among them, the real GDP growth rate of developing economies is expected to be only 3.%.9 percent, which is more than a percentage point below the average of the previous decade. The main drag is two main factors, the first being the increasingly uneven global economy, with low-income countries being poorer than they were before the pandemic.
Secondly, China's economy has shifted from a high-speed growth rate in previous years to a medium-low rate, and its contribution to global economic development has declined. World Bank**:China's real economic growth will slow to 45%, with 5. in 20232% compared to 07 percentage points.
According to the World Bank, China's short-term economic growth prospects are constrained by two factors. First, the real estate industry continues to weaken, which has led to the impact on the industrial chain of home appliances, home furnishings, building materials, steel, textiles and other industries closely related to real estate, and the investment confidence of most enterprises has been frustrated.
At the same time, it may also put pressure on the revenues of businessmen, creditors and local governments, and lead to a reduction in public investment. China's industrial transformation is bound to be actively promoted, but in the development of new kinetic energy, it is not appropriate to let the "old kinetic energy decay rapidly", and it is necessary to do a reasonable conversion of the old and new kinetic energy.
The second is the sluggish global foreign trade and the slowdown in external demand brought about by the implementation of the Brexit strategy in Europe and the United States. While actively expanding opening up and promoting external development, China needs to implement stronger internal circulation incentives than in previous years to expand residents' income and increase internal consumption.
In addition to short-term factors, China's economy faces long-term constraints, including high levels of local debt, an aging population, and slower productivity growth – issues that need to be addressed through deeper reforms, the World Bank said.
The report pointed out that the performance of China's economy is still volatile, deflationary pressures persist, and the recovery of private consumer confidence is still insufficient. A 1% decline in China's economic growth rate would reduce overall economic growth in East Asia and the Pacific by 0.0 percent3 percentage points.
But this drag can be mitigated, including by establishing a fiscal framework that helps to moderate spending, adopting a more flexible exchange rate regime, and avoiding restrictions on international capital flows, and stronger than expected policy support and structural reforms can lead to more promising growth.
The Bank has also given ** to large economies
Looking at advanced economies first, the World Bank said that the US economic growth rate is expected to slow to 16%, compared to the previous estimate of 1The 5% to 2% range is similar. Considering that the U.S. economy is more than a quarter of the world's size, this growth rate remains an important engine.
Unlike the relative strength of the United States, the World Bank's 2024 economic growth forecast for the eurozone is only 07%。Among them, the German economy is likely to continue to be in recession in 2024, while countries such as France, Italy, and the United Kingdom will only achieve modest growth and avoid recession.
The World Bank expects Japan's economy to grow by just 09%。If the yen exchange rate is stronger than in 2023, coupled with the decline in European inflation, Germany, which has just achieved catching up with Japan's GDP, is likely to be caught up by Japan again this year.
Let's look at the World Bank's assessment of developing countries: India's economic growth rate in 2024 is 6around 4%, continuing to be in the lead; Vietnam's economic growth rate is about 55%, Saudi Arabia **41%, Iran grew by 37%，Ukraine grew by 32%, Turkey grew by 31%。
Argentina's economy is expected to grow by 27%, the Brazilian economy is expected to grow by 15%，Both Russia and South Africa are expected to grow by 13%, Belarus grew by 08%, Sudan's economy fell 06 percent, and Equatorial Guinea down 6 percent1%……This article is written by Nansheng, and it is strictly forbidden to plagiarize!