In 2023, India's population will surpass that of mainland China, becoming the world's most populous country, with a population of 142.5 billion, based on India's current population base and total fertility rate, population growth will continue for some time. The population is expected to peak at around 1.7 billion, which is both a valuable asset and a heavy pressure.
India's GDP in 2022 is 339 trillion dollars, population 141.7 billion, with a per capita GDP of 2,392 US dollars. China's per capita GDP in 2006 was $2,099, and in 2007 it was $2,693, and India's per capita GDP in 2022 was about $293 higher than China's 2006 level.
However, from the actual point of view in 2023, India's per capita GDP in 2023 will not reach the level of my country in 2007. India's per capita GDP in the first three quarters of 2022 was 2$54 trillion, GDP in the first three quarters of 20236 trillion dollars, an increase of 236%, and the full year is expected to reach 3Around $5 trillion, while India's population has already reached 14 in 2023There are 2.5 billion people with a per capita GDP of around $2,456, which is mainly due to the depreciation of the Indian rupee due to the US interest rate hike. But the fact is that India's per capita GDP in 2023 will not reach the level of our country in 2007.
Another reason is that China's per capita GDP growth from 2006 to 2007 was very large, as high as 283%。In 2007, China's nominal GDP growth rate was as high as 2311%, plus a few points of appreciation in the exchange rate, formed such a terrible increase. Of course, this year, China's real GDP growth rate also reached a terrible 1423 per cent, which is an ultra-high growth rate that India has never seen before. This can also see that there are many differences between the development of China and India.
Overall, there has been a mismatch between India's economic development and population growth, and India simply cannot provide so many jobs and comparable education, resulting in a burden on the population.
The main reason for this is actually the premature de-industrialization of India, which has added only 13% of GDP98%, which is lower than many developed countries, is simply unable to create enough employment opportunities and absorb labor, and the lack of quality employment has created a large number of surplus labor with meager incomes, and it is also unable to support consumption and provide education support for themselves, forming a vicious circle.
If India does not rapidly develop its manufacturing industry and increase the proportion of manufacturing in the national economy, then India's industrialization is likely to encounter a low-income trap. It is to fall into an economic bottleneck before reaching the middle-income trap.
No other country in the world has been able to industrialize with such a low percentage of manufacturing. Chinese's per capita GDP is more than five times that of India, and the added value of manufacturing still accounts for 27 percent of GDP67%。This continues to promote China's industrial upgrading. If we do not rely on manufacturing to promote industrial upgrading, then can we rely on agriculture and service industries to promote industrial upgrading? To the population of India is simply impossible.