After the Spring Festival, the pig ** is still in the process of difficult climbing. According to the data monitored by Zhuochuang Information, breeding enterprises in most regions of the country have started one after another, and the market has increased the number of live pigs, but the terminal demand is weak after the holiday, and some slaughtering enterprises still have vacations, and pig prices are mainly falling.
Li Jing, a pig analyst at Zhuochuang Information, told the reporter that on February 19, the average price of lean pigs in the country was 1404 yuan kg, down 090 yuan kg. After the Spring Festival, the follow-up of terminal demand was weak, and the recovery of slaughter volume was slow. However, with the collection of pigs during the festival of the breeder, the market shows a trend of oversupply, resulting in pig prices.
Pig prices are not prosperous in the peak season.
Judging from the situation since 2024, the situation at the pig breeding end is not optimistic.
A number of companies have previously released sales data for January, and from the data, the sales unit price has decreased significantly compared with January 2023, and the sales season has been weak.
Dabeinong's announcement shows that in January this year, the total number of live pigs sold by the company's holding and shareholding companies was 63500,000 heads; The total sales revenue for the month was 9$2.4 billion; The average price of commercial fat pigs of the company's holding and shareholding companies was 1366 yuan kg. The average sales price in January 2023 is 1441 yuan kg.
New Hope's sales data shows that the company sold 172 live pigs in January 2024480,000 heads, a month-on-month change of 1705%, a year-on-year change of 3359%；The income is 215.9 billion yuan, a month-on-month change of 1798%, a year-on-year change of 527%；The average sales price of commercial pigs is 1330 yuan kg, a month-on-month change of 184%, a year-on-year change of -1068%。The main reason for the large year-on-year increase in pig sales is that the sales base of the same period last year coincided with the Spring Festival holiday.
Yan Meiling, a pig analyst at Shanghai Ganglian Agricultural Products Division, told the reporter that at present, from the data monitoring of Shanghai Ganglian, the completion rate of slaughter volume of key sample enterprises in January was as high as 10564%, the planned volume in February is 19% month-on-month compared with the actual slaughter volume in January20%。Although from the point of view of the planned volume in February, there is a certain amount of decline, but February is in the Spring Festival holiday, the actual slaughter time is very limited, and the demand inertia after the Spring Festival has fallen greatly, and the decline in demand may be greater than the decline in the first volume, so the risk of pig price decline after the Spring Festival is greater. The main reason for the sluggish sales season this year is still that the pig production capacity is loose and the demand follow-up is limited.
In an interview with the reporter, Xu **, a senior analyst of Breck's agricultural products purchasing network, said that in January, because of the approaching Spring Festival, the demand side had a pulse-type volume, and the purchase volume of slaughtering enterprises was rapidly enlarged in a short period of time. But these phenomena have not fundamentally reversed the situation of oversupply, from a national perspective, pigs are still abundant enough, after the Spring Festival to continue to be under pressure is a high probability event.
In the future, low-profit operation is the norm.
For how the current status quo of pig breeding has changed, a number of industry insiders mentioned to the reporter that the speed of the industry's production capacity is still the most important determining factor.
Huatai** research report mentioned that pig prices exceeded expectations ** or mainly due to the pressure of pork**. The abundant supply of live pigs and the seasonal decline in demand after the Spring Festival are expected to continue to lose money in pig breeding, which is expected to drive the subsequent sow production capacity to accelerate the depletion.
Yan Meiling said that at present, some farms are optimistic about the future of pigs, which to a certain extent or deepen the "involution" of breeding enterprises, for their own enterprises with tight funds, or increase the pressure on capital flow.
In addition, Xu ** said: "Whether it is fundamentals or capital, it is not something that the company can significantly improve in the short term. It's only a matter of time before more companies experience a liquidity crisis. To have a correct judgment on the competitive pattern of the pig industry, low-profit operation will be the norm. ”
Li Jing said that enterprises should adapt to the development of the pig cycle, and combine production capacity and production efficiency, carry out early warning, prevention and control of dynamic and reasonable production capacity space, and adjust production capacity planning in a timely manner to reduce the loss pressure caused by the collection of ** column and ** surplus. (Reporter Gui Xiaosun).