According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 8th, in January, the national CPI (household consumption index) was 03%, an increase of 02 percentage points; A year-on-year decrease of 08%, a decrease of 05 percentage points. The national PPI (industrial producers' ex-factory ** index) fell month-on-month and year-on-year, but the decline was narrower. Experts said that in the short term, CPI may fluctuate at a low level, but from the perspective of the whole year, the path of CPI rebounding moderately and PPI from negative to positive is relatively clear, and the inflation center will gradually repair in fluctuations and return to the normal level.
Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted the data and said that in January, affected by the holiday effect, residents' consumption demand continued to increase, and the national CPI was **0 month-on-month3% for two consecutive months**; Affected by the high base of the Spring Festival staggered month in the same period last year, it decreased by 08%。Core CPI, which excludes food and energy**, was 03%, an increase comparable to the average of the same period in the past ten years; Year-on-year **04% to keep it mild**.
From a month-on-month perspective, food *** 04%, an increase of 05 percentage points, affecting CPI** by about 008 percentage points. Non-food items** decreased by 0 from the previous month1% to **02%, affecting the CPI** of about 019 percentage points.
The CPI has been month-on-month for two consecutive months**, indicating that household consumption** has continued to moderate steadily, and effective social demand has continued to recover moderately. Jones Lang LaSalle Greater China Chief Economist and Research Director Pang Ming said.
On a year-on-year basis, food ** fell by 59%, affecting the CPI to drop by about 113 percentage points. In food, pork, fresh vegetables and fresh fruits** decreased respectively7% and 91%, the total impact of CPI decreased by about 078 percentage points, accounting for more than ninety percent of the year-on-year decline in CPI, is the main factor driving the year-on-year decline in CPI. Non-food ***04%, affecting the CPI ** about 032 percentage points.
The year-on-year decline widened mainly due to the fact that the Spring Festival of the previous year was located in January, coupled with the increase in consumer demand after the transition of epidemic prevention and control in the same period, resulting in a high base of comparison in the previous year. Dong Lijuan said.
Pang Ming said that considering the core CPI excluding food and energy**, the year-on-year increase was 02 percentage points to 04%, but it still maintains a moderate trend, indicating that various supportive policies are being implemented, effectively implemented, and continued to make efforts, and are gradually overcoming the main problems of weak aggregate social demand and insufficient effective demand in the current macroeconomy.
In terms of PPI, Dong Lijuan said that due to factors such as the fluctuation of international bulk commodities and the entry of some domestic industries into the traditional off-season of production, the national PPI decreased month-on-month and year-on-year, but the decline was narrowed. PPI decreased by 02%, a decrease of 01 percentage point; A year-on-year decrease of 25%, a decrease of 0 from the previous month2 percentage points;
Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, said that compared with the rebound of international commodity trends, upstream industries (mainly energy and mineral extractive industries) have recovered due to external transmission, but downstream industries are still affected by demand and maintain a month-on-month decline. Looking forward to the next stage, geopolitical disruptions to global commodities still exist, external downward shocks are expected to ease, and domestic demand may become a more important influencing factor. At the same time, considering the impact of last year's low base, the narrowing of the PPI decline in the next few months will be the main trend, but it will still take time to recover.
Looking forward to the future, Feng Lin, senior grader of Oriental Jincheng, believes that the impact of the staggered moon effect of the Spring Festival in February will be reversed, and the CPI will return to positive growth year-on-year, and it is expected to basically continue the positive growth state thereafter, and the year-on-year CPI center will rebound compared with 2023. "On the whole, the price increase in 2024 will be at a moderate and low level, which will provide more room for flexible adjustment of monetary policy. Reporter Li Yuyou.
*: Economic Information Daily.