With the arrival of the Year of the Dragon, China's real estate market seems to be undergoing a subtle transformation. The past Year of the Rabbit has seen a continued process of "de-bubble" in real estate, with the market falling into a downturn for a while. However, at the beginning of the new year, the transaction area of first-tier cities such as Beijing and Shenzhen has shown signs of recovery, does this indicate that China's real estate will usher in a recovery in the Golden Dragon Year?
According to the latest report from the China Index Research Institute, although the transaction area of China's real estate market in January was significantly higher than that of the previous month**2806, a decrease of 12 from the same period last year51 However, among the first-tier cities, the real estate market transaction area in Beijing and Shenzhen has shown an increasing trend. Among them, the transaction area in Beijing increased by 17 compared with the previous month6, Shenzhen increased by 10, and the two cities also increased by 72 compared with the transaction area in the same period last year7 and 217％。
This change has aroused widespread concern in the market. Cai Weimin, a Taiwanese real estate expert and former director of the Real Estate Operation Research Institute of Fudan University, said that taking Shanghai as an example, the housing market is expected to stabilize in the third quarter of 2024 after nearly two years of recession. He explained that with a large number of investors selling, self-users have gradually become the main receivers of the market, which will help the precipitation of chips and the stability of the market.
However, Cai Weimin also pointed out that the divergence of China's housing market will become more and more serious. Apart from.
In addition to the first- and second-tier cities, the volume of other first-tier cities is huge, and buyers are close to drying up, and it is very difficult for third- to sixth-tier cities to enter a relatively good state.
Wang Xiaochang, an analyst at the Housing Data Research Center, believes that although the policy side will improve in 2023 and reduce the cost of buying a house, the market is still facing the problem of lack of confidence. Buyers are cautious about buying off-plan housing and are more inclined to choose second-hand housing, which highlights the urgency of the reform of the new housing pre-sale system and the pre-sale fund supervision system.
It is worth noting that a number of economists from brokerages and think tanks pointed out in their analysis that the instability of China's real estate market this year may still be the biggest risk to China's economy. At least in the first half of this year, the real estate market will remain sluggish, which will have a broad impact on upstream and downstream industries and the overall economy.
Overall, the trend of China's property market in the Year of the Dragon is still full of uncertainties. Although there are signs of recovery in first-tier cities, the overall market still faces many challenges. Factors such as policy adjustments, the restoration of market confidence, and institutional reforms will all determine the future direction of China's real estate market.