Land. 
Against the backdrop of a cold market environment, the transaction scale of the land market has declined significantly compared with the same period in 2022. As of December 20, 2023, the transaction area and transaction value of land in 300 cities across the country have decreased by 21% and 18% year-on-year, respectively, and the transaction area has once again refreshed a new low value in the past decade. From the perspective of cities of different energy levels, the land of cities of all energy levels is lower than the level of the same period last year, regardless of the transaction area and transaction value. In terms of popularity, affected by multiple factors such as the funds of real estate companies are still under pressure and the property market is still down, the enthusiasm of real estate companies to participate in the auction is still poor, and the premium rate is still at a relatively low level, with the annual premium rate only 45%。
Looking forward to the future, under the background of the current downturn in the property market and the real estate market, although the "price limit" is canceled to retain sufficient profits for developers and mobilize the enthusiasm of land acquisition, the land auction market is overly marketizedHowever, considering the different location conditions and land values of different plots, even if the profit expectation is better, at a time when the funds of real estate enterprises are under pressure, it is still more important for enterprises to make good payment speeds. Summary.
Transaction area: The transaction area decreased by more than 20% year-on-year, and the scale fell to a new low in the past decade.
As of December 20, 2023, the transaction floor area of the land market in 300 cities across the country is 12200 million square meters, a decrease of 21% from the same period in 2022 and a decrease of 5 percentage points from the previous year. Even if the phenomenon of "tail lifting" arrived as scheduled in December, the scale of transactions in December was almost the same as the same period last year as the land market continued to cool. Under this influence, the year-on-year decline in the transaction scale of the land market in 2023 will remain at about 20%, and the total transaction scale will refresh a new low in the past decade.
1. The scale of transactions fell year-on-year, and the first-tier cities fell by more than 30% year-on-year.
From the perspective of sub-level structure, due to the cold market environment, the land transaction area of cities of all energy levels is lower than the level of the same period last year. Among them, the total transaction scale in first-tier cities was 26.1 million square meters, a decrease of 32% from the same period last year. In terms of cities, except for Beijing, the transaction area of the remaining three first-tier cities was inferior to the same period last year, of which the transaction scale of Shenzhen fell by as much as 75% year-on-year, and the decline in the transaction scale of Shanghai and Guangzhou decreased by nearly compared with last year.
Three or four percent.
In the second- and third-tier cities, the transaction scale showed a year-on-year downward trend, with a year-on-year decrease of %. Taking second-tier cities as an example, except for a few cities such as Changchun, Taiyuan, Hohhot, Tianjin, Shijiazhuang, Guiyang, and Nanning, the transaction scale of the remaining second-tier cities was mostly negative year-on-year, and nearly half of the second-tier cities had a year-on-year decline of more than 20%, especially in Ningbo, Hefei, Qingdao and other cities, with a year-on-year decline of more than 50%, and the scale contraction was more significant.
2. Under the cold market, the transaction scale fell more and rose less, and the top 5 cities such as Chongqing, Xi'an, and Xuzhou fell by more than two percent (omitted).
Transaction value: Enterprises' willingness to acquire land has shrunk significantly, and the transaction value has decreased by nearly 20% year-on-year.
As of December 20, 2023, the total land transaction value in the country was 3,750.4 billion yuan, down 18% year-on-year. The year-on-year decline continued to be high, mainly due to the continuous cold of the land market since the end of last year, which led to the local ** being more cautious on the land supply side, and the willingness of enterprises on the demand side to take land also shrank significantly.
1. The first-tier cities had the largest year-on-year decline, and the annual turnover fell by more than two percent year-on-year.
From the perspective of cities of different energy levels, the transaction value of cities of all energy levels also showed a year-on-year decline, among which the transaction decline in first-tier cities was the most prominent, with a year-on-year decline of 24%;The year-on-year decline in second- and third-tier cities was slightly narrower, but both were above 15%.
Tier 1 cities saw the largest year-on-year decline in transaction value, mainly due to a significant decrease in transaction value in Shenzhen. Compared with the same period of the previous year, Shenzhen's transaction value in 2023 decreased by 62%, and as of December 20, the annual turnover was only 34.3 billion yuan, and the total transaction value decreased by more than 55 billion yuan compared with last year. In addition, the value of Shanghai and Guangzhou also decreased by more than 25%, and the transaction value shrank significantly. Only the transaction value of Beijing City showed a year-on-year trend, with a slight increase of 6% throughout the year.
2. The transaction value of more than 7 cities is less than that of the same period in 2022, and Shanghai continues to rank first in the transaction value.
Focus on the city. As of December 20, Shanghai was the only city with a turnover of more than 200 billion yuan, with a turnover of 226.9 billion yuan, down 28% year-on-year, ranking first in the list of amountsThe second city in the list of value is Hangzhou, with a turnover of 184.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14%. The threshold city is Wuhan, with a turnover of 40.4 billion yuan, which is still a slight decrease from the threshold of the top 20 in 2022.
From the perspective of regional distribution, the eastern cities with higher land prices have become the main force of the top 20 in terms of amount, especially in the Yangtze River Delta region, with as many as 12 cities on the list, of which six core first- and second-tier cities are all on the list, except for Hefei, the rest are all located in the top ten, and the third- and fourth-tier cities such as Changzhou, Yancheng, Wuxi, Nantong, Yangzhou and Xuzhou are also on the list, but they are relatively low. It is worth mentioning that among the top 20 cities in terms of amount, the transaction amount of more than seventy percent of the cities has declined compared with the same period last year, and even the transaction amount of Shanghai has dropped by as much as 28%, in addition, the land market in Xi'an, Chongqing and other central and western cities has also been significantly cold, with a year-on-year decline of more than two percent, and the decline is very prominent. Only a few cities such as Beijing, Tianjin, Yancheng, Nantong, and Yangzhou have a transaction amountHowever, compared with the annual transaction value, it is still at a relatively low level.
Land**: The relaxation of price limits can hardly hide the decline of the land market, and the premium rate continued to decline in the fourth quarter.
Affected by the improvement of the quality of land supply in hot first- and second-tier cities such as Shanghai and Hangzhou, the transaction floor price of land in 300 cities across the country will increase slightly to 3,069 yuan square meters in 2023, once again hitting a record high. In terms of heat, as the new housing market is still at a low level, coupled with the financial pressure of real estate companies is still large, the enthusiasm of real estate companies to take land is still at a low level, although the price limit of land in some cities has been relaxed, but the decline of the land market has not changed, and the premium rate in the fourth quarter is only 33%, down again from the first three quarters. The annual premium rate is only 45%, up 08 percentage points.
1. Overall land price: The proportion of first- and second-tier high-quality land transactions has increased, and the average land price has hit a record high (omitted).
2. Urban land price: more than half of the land prices in key cities**, and Beijing's floor prices continue to rank first (omitted).
3. Premium rate: The relaxation of price limits can hardly hide the decline of the market, and the premium rate of cities of various energy levels continued to decline in the fourth quarter (excerpt).
In terms of market heat, affected by multiple factors such as the pressure on real estate companies' funds and the downward trend in the property market, the enthusiasm of real estate companies to participate in the auction is still poor, and the premium rate is still at a relatively low level, with an annual premium rate of 45%。
The performance of heat changes at all energy levels is consistent, and the premium rate in the fourth quarter is on a downward trend compared with the third quarter, hitting a new low since the second quarter of 2023. Among them, the premium rate in first-tier cities dropped to 42%, in addition to a few cities such as Hangzhou, Hefei and Fuzhou, hot cities such as Nanjing and Wuhan were cold in the fourth quarter, resulting in a further decline in the average premium rate, which fell to 34%, and third- and fourth-tier cities cannot escape the cooling trend, with a premium rate of only 3 in the fourth quarter of 20230%。
Land supply: The land supply plan is reduced by 10%, and the actual completion rate is about 40%.
At the beginning of 2023, according to the latest requirements of the ** ministries and commissions, a new information release link "pre-supply land" has been added to the land transaction, and an additional page of land plots to be transferred has been added to the information disclosure ** sponsored by the Ministry of Natural Resources. As of November 30, the completion rate of pre-supply land in key sample cities is only 70%. Not only that, under the pre-announcement system, a considerable number of pre-announced plots in the suburbs have been abandoned by the market before they are officially listed, which has greatly reduced the unsold rate. In terms of the completion of land supply plans, the scale of land transactions in most first- and second-tier cities is still at a relatively low level, and the average land supply completion rate in 2023 is only 41%, far lower than the average level before the epidemic.
1. Pre-supply land: The completion rate of pre-supply land is only 70%, and the unsold rate index has been lowered to a certain extent (excerpt).
CRIC statistics show that the completion rate of the pre-supply announcement is also less than expected, and the statistical caliber of the pre-announcement is narrowed to the deadline earlier than November 30, 2023, compared with the actual ** land details data during the period, the total area of pre-transfer plots in the first 11 months of 2023 in 49 sample cities (counties) is 76.94 million square meters, and the actual ** is 55.97 million square meters, with an average pre-supply land completion rate of 73%.
In terms of cities, except for a few cities such as Shanghai, Changchun, Chongqing, Qingdao, Huai'an, Lianyungang, and Shenzhen, most cities failed to complete the pre-supply land list plan as scheduled. In addition, Nanjing, Wuhan, Xiamen, Fuzhou and other cities have actual plans of about 60 percent, and most of the overdue land plots are some remote plots of poor quality. Taking Nanjing as an example, the overdue land plots are all in the middle and far suburbs of Pukou, Liuhe and Jiangning, and a considerable part of them are unsold (postponed) plots in the second half of last year or the beginning of this year, and the quality is relatively average.
It is worth noting that the landing of Xi'an pre-supply land is at the bottom level, with a total area of 8.41 million square meters of pre-sold land in the first 11 quarters, and the actual ** 2.88 million square meters, and the completion rate of pre-supply land is only 34%. Not only that, even hot cities such as Hefei, Xuzhou and Changzhou in the Yangtze River Delta region have an overdue supply rate of more than 40%, and a large number of land plots lack certainty of "intended buyers".
2. Land supply plan: Under the background of the shrinkage of the residential land supply plan, the average completion rate of the land supply plan in 2023 is only forty percent (slightly).
Corporate investment: The total amount of the top 100 investors reached a new low, and the overall investment willingness did not improve significantly.
1. There was no improvement in land acquisition, the investment amount fell by 13%, and the land acquisition and sales ratio remained low.
In terms of total volume, the total investment of the top 100 new land storage real estate enterprises in 2023 is the lowest in the past seven years: the total value of new goods, total price and construction area of the top 100 from January to December will be 2,997.8 billion yuan, 1,435.8 billion yuan and 120.73 million square meters respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of % and 12% respectively.
In terms of land-to-sales ratio, the land-to-sales ratio of the top 100 real estate companies throughout the year was only 019, basically unchanged compared to last year and still at the lowest level since 2017.
From a quarterly point of view, the change in the ratio of land acquisition to sales throughout this year showed a trend of "low opening and high walking". In the first quarter, the land-to-sales ratio was the lowest, at only 007 is the lowest period of investment willingness throughout the year, and then the willingness to acquire land continues to increase slowly. However, due to the fact that the property market continues to bottom out and there are no stars in the transaction, the recovery of the land-to-sales ratio is limited, and as of the end of December, the land-to-sales ratio of the top 100 real estate companies is 019。
As of the end of November, the overall trend of the land market showed a decline in volume parity and was in the bottoming stage. Corporate cautious investment sentiment has not improved. At the end of November, the threshold of the top 100 new goods in value was 59500 million yuan, an increase of only 3 from the end of October800 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22%.
The threshold value of each echelon is the same as that of the same period last year, and the threshold value of the top 10 decreased the least, down 13% year-on-year, which shows that the leading real estate enterprises have the least impact on their investment in the same market backgroundOn the contrary, the threshold of the top 50 decreased the most, down 32% year-on-year. It is worth mentioning that although the threshold has decreased year-on-year as a whole, the decline has narrowed slightly compared with the end of last month.
2. Focus and contraction, the concentration of the value of the TOP20 real estate enterprises exceeds eighty percent, and the net is one or two lines.
In 2023, the overall investment strategy of real estate companies is to stay cautious and focused, abandon most of the third and fourth tiers, and increase the quality of land in first- and second-tier cities.
First of all, real estate investment in 2023 will show a highly focused trend. In the overall investment environment, the proportion of land acquired by leading real estate companies has further increased significantly, and it has remained stable at a high level. As of the end of November, the new value of the top 10 real estate companies accounted for 64%, a slight decrease of 2 percentage points from the end of the third quarter and a slight decrease of 3 percentage points from the end of the second quarter.
Correspondingly, the proportion of new value of other echelon real estate companies has been compressed, for example, the top 11-20 real estate companies accounted for 19%, down 5 percentage points from the same period last year, and the space of the top 50 real estate companies was compressed more obviously, accounting for only 5% of the new value in 2023, a significant decrease of 12 percentage points from the same period last year, and the share proportion fell the most.
Secondly, in terms of land acquisition strategy, it is a general consensus that "less cities and fine land plots". Compared with the past few years, real estate companies in all tiers of cities have conquered cities, with the increase of market risks and sluggish sales, the scope of cities that enterprises are willing to invest in in 2023 is shrinking.
From the perspective of the top 10 national real estate enterprises in terms of land acquisition amount, except for Poly, C&D, China Resources, and China Railway Construction, the number of cities that have acquired land exceeds 20, and the number of land acquired by the rest of the enterprises is below 20. And judging from the structure of land acquisition in the first November, it is basically dominated by first- and second-tier core cities, accounting for more than eighty percent.
3. Enterprises are re-divided, and half of the top 100 companies have not taken land, and central enterprises are strongly "leading" (omitted).
Prospect. Judging from the changes in transactions throughout the year, under the influence of the continued sluggish performance of the property market, the land market will also continue to operate at a low level in 2024, and the transaction area will once again refresh a new low in the past decade, and the overall market heat will also continue to be low. Next, the recovery of the heat of the real estate market will still depend on the performance of the property market, only the property market transactions in various cities stabilize and rebound, the willingness of real estate companies to take land will rise, and the overall land market heat will likely recover.
In 2024, the growth rate indicator is expected to improve marginally, and the scale will continue to be low for several years.
In 2023, the sample urban residential land** plan will decrease by about 10% year-on-year. However, considering that the land transaction area across the country has continued to decline sharply in recent years, it is still too conservative to narrow the land supply plan by only about 10%. In terms of land market transactions in 2022, the annual real estate purchase area under the caliber of the Statistics Bureau fell by 53%, and the decline further expanded by 37 percentage points, that is, the real estate purchase area was only about 40% of the high point in 2020;According to the land transaction data compiled on the official website of the Ministry of Land and Resources, CRIC estimates that the completion rate of residential land** in nearly 1,000 sample cities in 2022 will be about 41%. In 2023, the scale of residential land transactions nationwide will decrease by two percent year-on-year, which is much greater than the narrowing of about one percent of the land supply plan, and it is expected that the completion rate of the land supply plan will remain low throughout the year.
Considering that the downgrade of the scale of residential transactions is as high as 500 million square meters, which will inevitably bring a significant increase in the de-industrialization cycle of the industry, under the multiplier of the construction sales ratio, the current national residential projects need to be reduced by at least 2 billion square meters to achieve a new balance, that is, in the next few years of the industry repair period, the total construction area of land transactions should be about 2 billion square meters lower than the theoretical balance value, that is, converted to an area of about 900 million square meters, and it is expected that about 2-300 million square meters can be digested every year. Considering the objective demand for the return of supply and demand in the industry, the low scale of supply and demand in the land market will continue in the next three to four years. Fortunately, after two consecutive years of shrinking the scale of land auctions in 2022-2023, local authorities and enterprises have become more adaptable to the changes in the market, land prices and transfer conditions have been adjusted to a more reasonable range, and scarce and high-quality land plots can also be auctioned at the premium level, especially with the help of the implementation of the pre-supply land system, the national land market is expected to usher in a year of marginal improvement in growth indicators and stable scale development in 2024.
After the relaxation of the price limit of land auctions, the market differentiation intensified, and the high-de-conversion sector was more favored (omitted).
The investment attitude remains cautious and focused, and the investment returns from "fighting luck" to "fighting strength".
In 2023, the cautious and restrained investment attitude of real estate companies will continue throughout the year, and the total investment will continue to decline year-on-year. We expect the cautious theme to continue into 2024. Real estate investment is mainly limited by two aspects, one is the liquidity of funds, and the other is the future market expectation, before the two usher in a turnaround, the willingness to take land will maintain a weak recovery.
Different from the overall hot land market in the past few years, from 2023 onwards, the pattern of "one and two prosperity" in the market is no longer there, due to the limitation of the total amount of investment available by real estate enterprises, how to "spend money on the cutting edge" is more important, so out of the consideration of project flow rate and safety, enterprise investment has become more focused on the basis of prudence: the first and second tier core cities are preferred in terms of urban energy level, and the selection of specific land plots is more favored by real estate companies with high-quality land reserves with urban location and complete supporting facilities.
With the focus of real estate investment, high-quality land reserves are more scarce. The relaxation of the price limit for land auctions in core cities will have two main impacts on the investment of real estate enterprises: first, the investment strategy will return from "fighting luck" to "fighting strength", without the maximum land price limit, the feasibility study and return rate calculation of the enterprise will be re-enhanced, and finally whether it can successfully take the land with a more reasonable **, not only to fight the financial strength of the enterprise, but also to fight the operational strength of the enterprise;Second, under the change of investment strategy, the advantages of leading real estate enterprises in obtaining high-quality land plots will continue to be amplified, and the concentration of the industry may continue to rise and continue to differentiate.
Looking forward to the investment pattern in 2024, at the city level, the first and second-tier cities are undoubtedly the first choice for real estate investment, but the differentiation within the city will continue to appear, while the third and fourth-tier cities will continue to maintain a situation where most of the people are uninterested, and individual plots are sporadic and hotAt the enterprise level, as the first- and second-tier cities block small and medium-sized real estate enterprises with their higher thresholds, the advantages of leading real estate enterprises will continue to amplify, and a higher proportion of high-quality land reserves will be concentrated in the hands of leading real estate enterprises in the futureThe investment intensity of urban investment companies may continue to shrink, but there is still some demand for supportPrivate investment is more dependent on the overall recovery of the market and requires a longer recovery period.
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Article**: Kerry