Since the Thunder entered service, the Pakistan Air Force has been highly praised for its performance. The advantages of low-cost and large-scale equipment have made it one of the main forces of the Pakistani Air Force, and more than 150 aircraft have been installed so far. However, with the development of the times, the demand for high-end models has gradually become prominent, and Pakistan has had to re-examine the structure of its air force fighter equipment, and decided to stop production of the Thunder and turn to the introduction of more advanced J-10C and J-31 fighters.
The plan to discontinue production of the Thunder is not to be implemented in the short term, but is planned to be phased out after 2025. Therefore, in the next two years, Pakistan will continue to produce a batch of Thunder Block3, increasing the size of its Thunder fleet to 200-250 aircraft.
The development of the Thunder fighter has gone through multiple stages such as Block1, Block2, Block3 and two-seat versions, among which the latest Block3 version has significantly improved performance, and performed well in the "Indus Shield-2023" exercise in October last year, successfully defeating F16C D and suppressing F15SA, but limited by its positioning and model design, its upgrade potential is limited, and the Block3 version is considered to have maximized the potential of the Thunder.
With the advent of the fifth-generation aircraft era, India also plans to equip AMCA fifth-generation aircraft around 2030, and the limitations of the Thunder are gradually revealed, forcing Pakistan to seek more advanced fighters to resist the pressure from the Indian Air Force.
Globally, Pakistan's options are limited, and only a few companies, including the United States, China, Russia, France, and Europe, are capable of producing advanced four-and-a-half-generation fighters. In the era of fifth-generation aircraft, the United States, China, and Russia have become the only choice, and Russia has maintained a strong cooperative relationship with India due to historical reasons, making Pakistan's choice of China a last resort.
Since Pakistan obtained the first batch of 6 J-10Cs at the end of 2022, its overall performance has satisfied the Pakistani Air Force, and in the first actual combat at the beginning of this month, the performance of the J-10CE has convinced Pakistan, and the J-10CE has also achieved very good results in some exercises, which has further strengthened Pakistan's confidence in introducing the J-10C, for which Pakistan has widely publicized it.
However, given the high cost of modern advanced fighter jets, as well as Pakistan's own financial resources, it may be difficult for Pakistan to purchase advanced fighters on a large scale, especially for more advanced fighters such as the J-31, and it is the best option to purchase small quantities to maintain a proper lead or balance over the Indian Air Force.
However, even if Pakistan discontinues to stop producing the Thunder after 2025, I personally believe that the production line will not be dismantled, but the production line will be upgraded and maintained in the later stage, because it is reported that Pakistan is likely to upgrade more than 100 models of the Thunder Block1 and Block2 versions to the Block3 version.
But in general, in the context of the current global landscape of great changes, Pakistan's choice is not only out of national defense security considerations, but also a response to national defense modernization. As the performance of Chinese fighters in the world becomes more and more eye-catching, Pakistan's choice will undoubtedly bring new opportunities for defense cooperation between China and Pakistan, and the "highlight moment" of Chinese fighters has arrived.
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