On February 12, local time, the Israel Defense Forces dispatched ground troops and fighter jets to carry out a fierce attack on the southern Gaza city of Rafah. The Hamas health department reported at least a few dozen deaths.
With more than 1.1 million refugees from northern Gaza gathering in Rafah in a short period of time, the Israeli attack is causing a huge humanitarian catastrophe. According to information released by the Israeli side, the Israeli ground forces have not penetrated deep into Rafah at present, and mainly rely on naval and air force strikes, in order to cover the Israeli detachments that have infiltrated Rafah and help them rescue the hostages. According to Israeli officials, in this round of strikes, the Israeli side successfully rescued two Jews who are dual citizens of Argentina and Israel, and achieved the set goal.
Rafah is located at the southernmost tip of the Gaza Strip, bordering Egypt and further south is the Philadelphia Corridor to Egypt and the Sinai Peninsula. If Israel is convinced that the remnants of Hamas are hiding here, and that most of the hostages are there, Rafah will be at the centre of conflict in the coming weeks. For the millions of Gaza refugees gathered here, there is no way back.
On February 13, local time, in Rafah, Gaza Strip, Israel's attack on Gaza City continued. Figure Visual China.
"At all costs".
Since Hamas's surprise attack on Israel on October 7 last year, the current round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict has lasted for more than four months and has spread to Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and other places, affecting the situation in the Middle East as a whole. The United Nations says Rafah, Gaza's southernmost town, is almost entirely covered in refugee tents, and the number of refugees has swelled from 250,000 before the conflict to 1.4 million. Rafah is also the main point of entry for international humanitarian assistance, with almost no access to food, water and medicine for refugees in the area. Therefore, the importance and fragility of Rafa can be imagined.
Israel's attitude towards Rafah is extremely clear, and the Prime Minister's Office issued a statement on February 9 saying that the Israeli army cannot achieve the goal of eliminating Hamas without annihilating four Hamas battalions in the Rafah area. The Israeli side also believes that the supply of the remaining Hamas fighting units is also in Rafah, so no matter how crowded Rafah is, they must completely control it. In addition, the successful rescue of the two hostages has further stimulated the determination of the Israeli army to further encircle Rafah and encircle Hamas. Therefore, attacking Rafa did not bring the two sides to the end, but the beginning of the final battle. As Netanyahu said in an interview with ABC, our victory is within reach, and Rafah is the last bastion of Hamas.
The Rafah area covers an area of about 64 square kilometres, equivalent to one-sixth the size of Gaza, but in a short period of time it has gathered more than half of Gaza's population. Israel's fierce offensive in this region is very likely to cause a large-scale humanitarian catastrophe, which is why most Western countries, led by the United States, are firmly opposed to Israel's military operation in Rafah.
In this regard, Netanyahu's solution is that the Israeli army has cleared the northern area of Rafah in advance, and will provide "safe passage" to the people of Rafah and guide the people to temporarily evacuate to the northern region through "leaflets, mobile phone messages" and other means. However, with such a dense population and such a narrow passage, it will not only be very difficult to protect civilians, but the Israeli army may not go so smoothly, and both sides may face serious personnel**.
However, Israel still has good enough reasons to take military action in Rafah, as the area is already the only Hamas-controlled area that has not yet been "cleared", and Israel believes that a significant proportion of the more than 130 hostages are still alive and must continue fighting. On this issue, all factions in Israel have a unanimous position. Herzog said we will do our best to bring home all those who are alive, as well as the remains of those who have died, "in short, we will do whatever it takes."
In the face of Israel's determination to fight to the end, Hamas has warned that Israel's offensive in Rafah will undermine all previously agreed agreements to release the hostages, that is, Hamas can execute the hostages at will without restrictions. Hamas also claimed on Sunday that two hostages had died in the bombing and wanted to put pressure on Israel, but Israel carried out a rescue operation to rescue the remaining hostages as scheduled and successfully rescued two people.
Does Israel have other demands beyond the first priority of rescuing the hostages? Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and German Foreign Minister Baerbock, who had previously supported Israel, have all issued serious warnings to Israel, believing that the purpose of Israel's attack on Rafah is to expel more than 1 million Palestinian refugees from the country to Egypt in order to achieve the goal of completely occupying Gaza. Egypt has directly criticized Israel's attack on Rafah for its catastrophic consequences, and has even threatened to break the peace agreement signed with Israel in 1979.
Israel's eagerness to rescue the hostages is understandable, but more than 1 million Gaza refugees have been evacuated from the north to Khan Younis and then to Rafah, as demanded by Israel, and Egypt still has no intention of receiving them. If Israel does not rescue more hostages in the following ground military operations, but instead sends a rapid surge in Palestinian refugees, Israel will face more pressure than ever before, and the military operation against Gaza as a whole will be delayed again.
Israeli-US differences are becoming increasingly prominent
As the current round of conflict continues to prolong, the differences between Israel and the United States have become increasingly wide. Due to the widening humanitarian crisis in Rafah, all levels** led by Biden have also continued diplomatic mediation efforts.
In fact, Israeli air strikes on Rafah have been going on for weeks, but 12 February was the first time that Israel sent ground troops to surprise targets in Rafah. On the same day of the attack, Biden met with visiting King Abdullah II of Jordan in Washington and asked the latter to participate in promoting a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas for at least six weeks, so that Hamas could release more hostages and create conditions for a long-term ceasefire. The King of Jordan also said that if Israel continues to attack Rafah on the ground, it will cause a huge humanitarian disaster, stressing that all sectors cannot stand idly by and that a ceasefire must be achieved now.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken also recently made his fifth trip to the Middle East to engage in shuttle diplomacy to continue ceasefire negotiations and push for a broader post-war peaceful coexistence solution, including restarting the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel and finding a path to Palestinian statehood. On February 13, U.S. intelligence director Burns, Israeli intelligence and secret service director Barnea, and Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman met with Egypt in Cairo, Egypt, to discuss ceasefire arrangements in the Gaza Strip.
All parties, including China and the European Union, believe that they must continue to support Palestinian statehood, otherwise the end of this round of conflict will only be the beginning of the next round of conflict. On this point, the attitude of the United States is positive and it has also given Israel more understanding. For example, Blinken conveyed Biden's opinion in a meeting with Israel's Herzog, believing that Hamas's response was not an attitude of wanting to negotiate, and that he would continue to put pressure on Hamas.
The prospects for peace in the Middle East are clearly not encouraging. Netanyahu's ruling coalition is staunchly opposed to Palestinian statehood, and if Netanyahu makes any concessions on this point, his hawkish ruling coalition could collapse quickly, without even waiting for the war to end.
The United States, on the other hand, has ostensibly expressed dissatisfaction with Israel's military action in Rafah, but in fact has launched more diplomatic efforts to try to reach a better outcome in the short term, so that Israel will abandon the idea of taking over Gaza completely.
After four months of fierce fighting, the goal has not yet been achieved
Since the outbreak of a new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict on October 7 last year, the Israeli army has first attacked the Hamas armed forces in northern Gaza, and then launched an offensive in the south, with the intention of completely taking over the area. But four months on, the Israeli army has still not achieved its stated three goals: to eliminate Hamas, free all detainees, and ensure that the Gaza Strip no longer poses a security threat to Israel.
Although Hamas has suffered heavy losses in the face of Israel's indiscriminate bombardment, Israel has used a large number of ** equipment and troops to besiege Khan Younis for three months, and it still has not been able to fully control Khan Younis, and the fierce fighting with Hamas is still continuing, and the ** encountered by the Israeli army in Khan Younis is constantly expanding. Even more unexpectedly, just after the end of their military assault on northern Gaza, Hamas police returned to northern Gaza and began security operations and patrols just after the withdrawal of some of their troops. After four months of fighting, Israel has not made the people of Gaza abandon Hamas, and Hamas is far from being completely wiped out.
International pressure is also mounting on Israel to continue its military operations. The United Nations has repeatedly warned and called on all parties to seek a ceasefire solution. The United States has been forced to raise the tone of its criticism of Israel on the surface, and the European Union and France have warned of the possibility of a major humanitarian catastrophe in Rafah, Israel. Arab countries that have already established diplomatic relations with Israel have also begun to put further pressure: the UAE has expressed alarm at the "humanitarian impact" of Israel's attack; Qatar "strongly condemns" Israel's threats; Tens of thousands of Moroccans marched in the capital, Rabat, against Israel and for Palestine. Continue to besiege Rafah under pressure, and time is no longer on Israel's side.
Author: Zhu Zhaoyi.
Editor: Xu Fangqing.