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In recent years, there have been many hidden crises in the US economy, and this trend has attracted widespread attention and early warning. The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and the growing size of U.S. debt have led many to worry about whether this will bring a new global financial crisis. Recently, the economic situation in the United States has shown a precipitous decline, especially its GDP growth rate of 4The 9% figure is worrying. It is expected that this decline may further expand to 1About 2%, which is only about a quarter of what it used to be. The data has raised fears of a Great Recession. It is worth mentioning that the recent Fed interest rate meeting has received relatively little attention, which is in stark contrast to the previous attention. However, investors welcomed the Fed's decision to pause interest rate hikes, and short-term market feedback confirmed this view.
China is the largest partner of the United States, and the friction between the two countries has always attracted much attention. The policy changes between the two sides have also had a significant impact on the growth of the U.S. economy and GDP growth. In addition, the U.S. faces other complex economic issues, such as multiple factors such as inflation, policymaking, and technology. Although the United States has tried to solve the problem through a series of interventions, its economic growth is still affected by the global economy and**. The trend of global economic integration and the interaction of international leaders have made it impossible for the United States to completely dominate the world economy. In the case of the chip industry, for example, the United States has tried to suppress other countries through bans, but this behavior has had a negative impact on its own semiconductor companies, causing their earnings to plummet. This situation shows that the United States has lost full control over the world economy and the situation.
As for the recession trend in the United States, there have been many institutions in the past few years**, especially from 2023, the US fiscal statement shows that the economy is showing a downward trend. According to the Atlanta Fed's model**, the U.S. economy will grow by 27%, and the U.S. Treasury yield curve has been inverted for 12 months. This situation is mainly due to the intensification of the inversion of US Treasury yields, in addition to the end of US fiscal subsidies, the historically low unemployment rate, and the control of high inflationary pressures. According to the analysis of the laws of economic history, these pressures can only be alleviated in the form of a recession.
The United States** has long claimed that the U.S. economy is capable of solving the current real predicament. For example, U.S. residents are in good balance sheets, and the U.S. economy is on track for a soft landing, not a collapse. Some proponents believe that the United States ** has various means and solutions to achieve this. However, economists in many countries still believe that the U.S. economy faces the possibility of a major recession. The reason is that the debt crisis in the United States has not been resolved, and the United States often takes some short-term measures to solve the immediate problems, such as those measures that are dismantled and repaired. The accumulated debt pressure in the United States has reached a dangerous point. In addition, the United States has yet to find a better way to curb economic inflation. Taken together, the likelihood of a U.S. economic recovery is becoming increasingly remote. Especially since the outbreak of the epidemic, the purchasing power of ordinary people has declined, and market consumption has also decreased to varying degrees.
However, some proponents argue that, in reality, the income of US residents does not fully reflect the magnitude of the problem. They believe that the subsidies are just a measure to appease the population, and that these subsidies have been gradually reduced since the end of the pandemic. So, on the whole, the U.S. economy is still in a cliff-like situation.
GDP in the United States fell in the third quarter, and the dollar index reached its lowest point in months. The status of the US dollar as the world's currency will not change significantly in the short term, and no other currency has the strength to replace the US dollar. However, many countries continue to develop plans for de-dollarization, as many countries are disgusted by the United States' leek cutting but do not have the strength to contend with it. If the U.S. economy continues to decline and there are more changes in economic cooperation, many countries believe that the likelihood of a contraction in U.S. GDP growth will continue to increase.
To sum up, the US economy is not only facing the impact of complex internal and external factors, but also has many hidden dangers. While some believe that the United States is capable of meeting these challenges, there are also many countries and economists who are cautious about the economic outlook for the United States. The recessionary trend in the United States is already in place**, and there are more and more signs that this trend is becoming clearer. With proper analysis and analysis, we can better understand and respond to these challenges.
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