"Following the UK, there are NATO countries that have extended a 'helping hand' to Ukraine. Germany and France have signed a 10-year security agreement with Ukraine, but it should be pointed out that the security agreement will not make Ukraine safer, nor will it change the current trend of Ukrainian army retreat. ”
On February 16, local time, Ukraine**Zelensky signed a 10-year security agreement with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and France** Macron, and both Germany and France pledged to provide long-term military support to Ukraine to ensure the establishment of a sustainable force that can "defend Ukraine".
There are three reasons for providing Ukraine with "sustainable strength".
First, let's look at the attitude of the German side. Earlier on the 16th, Zelensky visited Berlin, the capital of Germany, and signed a security agreement with Scholz that is valid for 10 years. Scholz called it a "historic agreement" that would send a "clear message" to Russia that the West would not relax its support for Ukraine. It is reported that this agreement was reached within the framework of the joint statement adopted by Ukraine and the members of the Group of Seven (G7) in July 2023, which clearly stipulates that Germany will provide long-term security guarantees to Ukraine.
In the agreement, Germany** pledged to work with Ukraine to build a sustainable force capable of defending Ukraine. The agreement also stipulates that Germany will provide "rapid and sustained security assistance" to Ukraine, as appropriate, during Russia's "invasion" of Ukraine, while seeking to make Russia "pay the price in economic and other areas".
Cao Weidong, an expert on military issues, pointed out that the "sustainable forces to defend Ukraine" called by Germany** include three aspects. First, personnel training. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has dragged on so far, and the Soviet-style ** used by the Ukrainian army has almost been exhausted, replaced by NATO-standard equipment, such as "Leopard" tanks, "Weasel" armored personnel carriers, minesweepers, etc., which need to be operated by combat personnel, therefore, corresponding personnel training is essential;
Second, joint production. Subject to domestic production capacity constraints, it has to continue to send first-class equipment to Ukraine, and joint production of first-class equipment with Ukraine is a must for Germany. Earlier, it was reported that Rheinmetall, one of the largest ** manufacturers in Germany, is planning to develop a company in Ukraine that produces various **, military technologies and **. Rheinmetall CEO Peller said in Germany that in the future, Ukraine will play an important role in the new company to better defend itself in the long battle;
Third, intelligence support. And this is also one of the important contents of bilateral military cooperation between Germany and Ukraine in the future.
It is "hard" to fill the United States, Germany
According to statistics, at present, Germany is the country that has assisted Ukraine the most, after the United States. According to Scholz, the total amount of military aid delivered and promised by Germany to Ukraine so far has reached 28 billion euros. The New York Times notes that Scholz's continued supply of funds and equipment to Ukraine appears to have caused damage to Germany's armed forces. The "New York Times" once published an article saying that while Germany continues to send artillery, ammunition, spare parts and other equipment to Ukraine, the German side has not received replacement equipment for a long time. Due to the shortage of ammunition, the Germans have canceled a number of military training and exercises.
Not only that, but the energy crisis and inflation are also putting the German economy under pressure. According to the German Federal Statistical Office, the German economy will shrink by 03%, industrial output is down 15%, with the largest declines in energy-intensive industries and energy. Siegfried Rusulm, president of the Federation of German Industries, told ** last week that a third of German manufacturers are considering moving overseas due to inflation and high energy costs.
In this regard, Cao Weidong said that from the perspective of the situation, the essence of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is the confrontation between Russia and NATO. As an important member of NATO, Germany will instinctively stand on NATO's position, and if Ukraine loses, it will also mean NATO's defeat, and NATO's eastward expansion will also lose important support. Earlier, Germany raised its defense budget to 2% of GDP, which also means that Germany will have some spare capacity to provide limited support to Ukraine.
There is a "small abacus" behind France's aid to Ukraine
A few hours after signing the security agreement with Germany, Zelenskyy visited the French capital, Paris, to sign a similar agreement with Macron. Macron also said at a press conference: "The outcome of the Russia-Ukraine conflict will have a decisive impact on our interests, our values, our security and our social system." We must provide further assistance to support Ukraine on a larger scale, in a longer-term way. ”
Cao Weidong said that as one of NATO's "troikas", Britain and Germany have signed a security agreement, and France will naturally not be left behind. It should be pointed out that compared with the previous two, France's military aid to Ukraine is slightly different, and the equipment provided by Macron to Ukraine is more advanced, for example, the "Storm Shadow" cruise missile, the "Aster" air defense system, etc., among them, the Russian army's anti-missile system has been destroyed by the "Storm Shadow" cruise missile many times. France's "generosity" also has its own "small abacus," and the reliability of its equipment tested by actual combat has made its own signature in the international arms market.
Equipment and others "come to aid Ukraine" or face an embarrassing situation.
With the "written guarantee" of Germany and France, there is a general concern about what equipment and how much assistance these two countries will specifically provide to the Ukrainian army on the front line. At the signing of the agreement in Berlin, Scholz announced that Germany would provide Ukraine with a package of military aid worth 1.1 billion euros, including 36 howitzers, 120,000 artillery shells and two air defense systems. In addition to this part of the military aid, the French "Echo" also revealed that it will provide Ukraine with 6 "Sea King" MK41*** stocks of the German Bundeswehr from the second quarter, and more than 80 "Leopard"-1A5 main battle tanks will be delivered this year, as well as armored infantry fighting vehicles; Another 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers will be trained in Germany this year.
On the French side, when the agreement was signed in Paris, Macron promised to provide Ukraine with a package of military aid worth 3 billion euros this year, which is also the largest annual aid provided by France to Ukraine since the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
So, is the best equipment under these two security agreements enough to shake the current situation? The answer is no. Cao Weidong said that even if the United States, Britain, Germany, and France continue to provide Ukraine with the best equipment, but still face the dilemma of "far water can not quench the thirst", compared with European NATO countries, Ukraine's land area is much larger, and there are many points of equipment deployment, in the past two years of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the number of dead and wounded officers and soldiers in Ukraine is as high as hundreds of thousands.
As the latest information on February 17, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Syrsky announced the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Avdeyevka, an important town in the Donetsk region. Avdeyevka, located less than 10 kilometers north of the city of Donetsk, the capital of the Donetsk region, is one of the main positions of the Ukrainian army in launching artillery strikes on the city of Donetsk. In October 2023, the Russian army began an offensive here. This also indicates that in the future, the key front-line positions of the Ukrainian army will gradually face a situation where there is no one to defend, and when the vital forces of the Ukrainian army are in danger, this conflict will also usher in a fundamental change.
Take a look at the news knews reporter Fang Liang).