In operation, it is necessary to use large funds and medium-term thinking. The highest level of operation in the market is to rely on the feeling of the disk and practical experience to see the opportunity. How many institutions will make orders based on what indicators and theories**?
At this stage in China, the decisive factor that determines the general trend and the trend is policy and capital. It is the policy that determines the flow of funds, and the rise and fall mainly depends on the entry and exit of the main funds. Researching, discovering policy trends, analyzing the inflow and outflow of funds, and catching the traces of the main force is the best way we pursue. To put it simply, the trend is determined by the will to power; **The trend is determined by the will of capital; The stupid (emotional) trend is determined by the will of the masses.
Real technical analysis is enough as long as it is based on three points, ** volume, trend! The essence of technical analysis is to analyze the inflow and outflow of funds from the perspective of analysis, and in terms of analysis, the main analysis is the essence of technical analysis. The essence of technical analysis is to understand the language of the handicap. There is also a policy in technical analysis, which guides the flow of funds and guides the hot flows.
I feel that at a higher level, I have forgotten what price, volume, and trend, not to mention what patterns and lines, and everything is frozen in a reflection at a glance. Reflection! Just a glance! Any theory is redundant.
I am a practical family, do well, is the truth, look at the market is to analyze the flow of funds, **, to see the main purpose, it is very important, the main force all the trend is more in the disk. The analysis is to take the actual combat as the starting point, and making money is the main reason. The purpose of the main force is very important, and all the trends of the main force will be reflected on the disk. If you see it clearly, you will know how to operate in actual combat. The trend of time, it is better to choose a good stock than to choose a good time. There is no absolute theory in the market, only continuous learning.
Control risks, safety first. Invest in **, be clear about yourself, the master will neither be absolutely bullish, nor absolutely bearish, when the situation on the disk takes a sharp turn, he will rely on the disk feeling and practical experience to see the opportunity and take advantage of the trend.
To do real trading, the most taboo is to have illusions, no stop loss, once the trend goes bad, you should leave the market, not in love. People can't fight the trend, what is the trend? The trend is that the water of the Yangtze River is rolling eastward, and the mountains and rocks are unstoppable. The highest level of doing real trading is to take advantage of the opportunity and follow the trend with the feeling of the disk and actual combat experience.
The rise and fall of * is subject to a variety of factors, such as the policy long and short side, the industry boom side, the financial fundamentals, the flow of funds in and out, the price and volume line technical side, the size of the main manipulation surface, etc., such factors are any professional investor in a short period of time, it is difficult to fully grasp and understand, so the master can not judge every rise and fall in the **. The master can control the risk, only to control the risk, safety first. Being able to do everything under control is the desire of every market investor.
You should not hold too many of them, regardless of the size of the funds, it is better to concentrate firepower, and it is ideal to control it within three.
My opinion is: people who can't afford to lose are always psychologically insecure, and how can an insecure heart make a calm choice? Fear and greed will always be with you, and the biggest enemy is myself. Learn more, see more, think more, be less impatient and be less impatient, and the money will come slowly.
Actual combat, the disk operation can make money, it is the winner. I'm the kind of person who only says less, and the essence of technical analysis is to understand the language of the handicap. Knowing more technology does not mean that you can make money, and if you can't make money, no matter how much you know, it is useless. I rely on three points is enough, ** volume, trend! The market can only be earned by a few people, and in this market, we must learn to listen to the party.
In the early rise of the bull market just after the end of the bear market, the buyer's power is not strong, and the bears continue to have selling pressure, market participants mistakenly believe that the bear market has not ended, in the initial stage of the bull market, people's instability is a very normal reflection, the main force and ** are also lack of confidence, the performance on the disk is to be cautious and cautious, difficult consolidation. However, when ** falls to near the bottom again, the market often appears in patterns such as head and shoulders bottom, double bottom, etc. The increase in confidence in holding shares, in turn, increases the difficulty of washing. Not far from the bottom, not deep down. Lack of confidence is typical of the early stages of a bull market and always develops in hesitation.
If you want to survive in the market, character is the key. There is no absolute theory in the market, it is a hundred shots, only continuous learning, only learning can survive.
Helping people win in the best is not a profound skill, but a number of ideas that come from reality.
The concept is clear, and the ordinary operation method can win.
The stock price movement cannot be accurate**!
This is the first truth that needs to be understood to enter **.
The concept of "supremacy" and "supremacy" has long shrouded and harmed Chinese investors.
Fortunately, the practice of the past 20 years, as well as the theories studied at home and abroad in recent years, have eloquently proved to people that there can be no certainty in the stock price trend that will be affected by many variable factors at any time.
Of course, in **operation, it is impossible not to carry out**; But, here's what to remember:
1. The stock price trend cannot be accurate**;
2. ** is not the focus of winning in **.
Don't be locked in by the "fundamentals" information in **.
Once a company enters the trading market, it has an independent trajectory; The forces that dominate stock prices will only be factors in the market, and almost nothing to do with their off-the-counter "fundamentals" anymore.
Countless facts show that the same "fundamentals" can be very different in stock prices; The "fundamentals" are very far apart**, but the stock prices are often close to the same.
The impact of "fundamentals" on the stock price can only be played indirectly through the participants in the **. However, the motives that can directly affect the stock price are actually almost infinite (theoretically, everyone who participates in the trading of ** will have his own views and operations on the proper positioning of a certain **ticket at different times), and it is constantly changing.
Warren Buffett will pay attention to the quality of listed companies, because his ** funds are not a small amount, and it is not easy to enter and exit, so he needs high-quality "fundamentals" to ensure the safety of funds as much as possible.
Even so, he does not buy high-quality companies when he sees them, but only when the stock price in the market is much lower than the actual value.
If it weren't for Warren Buffett and many wealthy companies, more than 100 million funds would be carried out, so they had to consider the safety of funds in and out and other operational needs.
*of**—including the previous and current—and its trajectory are the objects that people need to pay the most attention to and study. We are not buying listed companies, and even, we are not buying ** (unless you really want to be a shareholder), we want **, just the position of the real-time stock price that may help your capital to increase its value.
The technical analysis method is a tool that purely studies the movement of stock prices.
The essence of technical analysis is actually based on historical data, and in statistics to help people find a greater probability of stock price trend direction, so as to improve the accuracy of **.
However, technical analysis itself does not automatically have the following functions.
Technical analysis often provides a convincing interpretation of what has happened in the past; However, for the future trend of the stock price, it can only provide a high probability of direction at most.
Because, this high probability, or probability advantage, is just a statistical summary of the phenomenon of ** (or **) in many similar situations in the past, rather than an exact determination of a certain outcome.
Therefore, when we have a high probability of a certain price, it is just that the price trend is ** in many cases, but it is not that this **price is certain, and this time it must be **.
Although, regardless of the probability of **, the stock price will still face two possibilities of rising or falling, but, after all, technical analysis methods can help us find those stock price trend patterns with higher probability, so that the stock price ** situation we pursue can have a greater possibility of realization.
That is, people who have technical analysis methods are more likely to make a profit than those who rely solely on luck, or are essentially lucky.
Is it possible to really gain some kind of probabilistic advantage?
More than a decade after the technical analysis method became popular in China, it has now fallen into a certain amount of notoriety. Because, after all, it will not give the people who use it, the certainty that they think they will have**, but only the inevitable probability. Without certainty, it will inevitably lead to the tragedy of losing money to those who misunderstand it. As a result, any tool that does not lead to certainty, especially methods such as technical analysis, including the idea of probability advantage, has now been spurned by many people.
In fact, with a correct understanding of technical analysis methods, a correct understanding of the advantages of probability advantages, and their limitations, we can obtain some definite advantages in our operations.
Practice has proved that there are indeed some patterns with probability advantages in stock price trends.
For example, the so-called "long arrangement" is indeed more profitable than the "short arrangement".
Equating probabilistic advantage with certainty is a common mistake.
Technical analysis does give one a certain degree of probabilistic advantage, but probabilistic advantage is not the same as certainty.
Equating the idea of probability advantage with certainty often leads people to stick to the ** that has been clearly manifested as a mistake, so that they are set again and again, and lose again and again!
The erroneous equation of probabilistic advantage with certainty is due to a failure to understand that the weight of the probabilistic advantage obtained by any method should not be overestimated. Because, the object of probability is only the regularity of the results of a large number of random events, not the results of random events themselves.
Probability is derived from past data, and immediate, unpredictable variables (such as emergencies, changes in the main plan, the degree of follow-up of shareholders, etc.) may affect and determine the stock price trend at that time and thereafter, so that the occurrence of rise and fall, almost like the two sides of a coin toss, have a probability of about 50%.
Therefore, if the stock price trend after the first is not in line with the direction of the first year, we must not regard it as abnormal or "unreasonable" in our understanding and mentality, and thus produce the wrong operation of confrontation with the market.
We should understand that things that go wrong are almost a norm and are not uncommon.
This is a common outcome that cannot be avoided by all means, including technical analysis methods.
If we understand this, we can always maintain a normal mind in the operation, and will not be annoyed by the fact that the actual stock price trend and technical analysis judgment often contradict each other, which will lead to blinding our minds.
We need to calmly and quickly accept this frequent reality, and on that basis, re-decide how to operate.
Even with the right stock picks, it's still not the key to profitability.
Countless facts have proved that many people who buy well still lose money in the end.
In this regard, we should remain vigilant.
Knowing when to sell correctly is the core secret of long-term profits.
Because, only by selling, can we really realize or keep profits and increase funds; Or realize that the loss will stop immediately, and the funds will not shrink again.
The selling principle can only be based on one of these two situations:
or **, the amount of loss has reached the maximum level of risk to be assumed, that is, the stock price has touched the stop loss line;
Or the trend of profit has begun to reverse.
The essence of the correct selling principle is to "stop losses immediately" and "let profits continue to grow".
Let the loss stop immediately", which means that the risk that we recognize and are ready to accept has come, and the loss must end here.
Let the profits continue to grow", which means that we should not sell when the profit situation continues, unless the situation starts to reverse to ensure that we can make more money when the time comes.
Unfortunately, in practice, people often do the opposite, often making the wrong mistake: let the loss-making stocks continue to be held, and let the slightly profitable stocks be sold quickly. And the evil consequences of doing wrong are: when the situation is unfavorable, the losses continue to expand, and the funds shrink rapidly; When there is a profit, it ends when it is a small profit.
If you want to make a profit in the ** for a long time, the right sell is far more important than the right **!
Because, the advantages of selling correctly are: when it is unfavorable, it only loses a small amount of money; And when it is favorable, it makes a lot of money.
Stock selection and**, there is no guarantee of correctness; But the initiative of when to sell is always in your own hands.
This means that the pursuit of long-term winning in the first initiative is actually under our own control!
Therefore, when you lose money and fail to make money, any behavior of complaining, blaming the market, and blaming others will not have the slightest positive significance, but will only damage your own mentality.
Before each **, what we should think about is not how much we can earn this time.
Because, whether we can earn and how much we can earn are mainly created by the opportunities provided by the market, rather than by our subjective efforts alone.
But determining how much risk we are prepared to accept each operation (how much money we can lose if we make a mistake), that is, the level of stop loss, is something that we must take the initiative to do and can do well.
The concept of stop loss is the most important psychological preparation in operation, and it is also the "magic weapon" that can make us make long-term overall profits.
With this "magic weapon" at the bottom, we can get a relaxed state of mind that is close to no pressure in every operation, so that we can listen to the ups and downs of the stock price on the stop-loss line, and even "let the profits continue to grow", which has automatically become a normal and easy thing to do.
Some people are worried that although the "stop loss" is only to accept a small loss, if it is often unfavorable and always needs a "stop loss", will this small loss not accumulate into a big loss?
In fact, this kind of worry does not happen in practice.
Because the law of the probability of the rise and fall of the stock price trend has been locked, so that any extreme probability phenomenon cannot happen.
Just as we will only have a probability of about 50% on the whole for a long time, and we will only have a 50% probability of encountering the stocks that will be profitable on the whole.
Therefore, if it is only an operation at the time of the trend, the number of operations that require stop loss will not be more than the number of profitable sells.
What's more, the stop-loss operation is nothing more than a collection of small losses; Selling at a profit will be the sum of the big wins.
"Cutting meat" is not really a "stop loss".
Although "cutting meat" is objectively also to stop the continued expansion of losses, "cutting meat" is not a planned initiative to admit losses, but because of the fear of continuing to act passively.
Planned "stop loss" is a small loss; However, "cutting meat" is often a miserable loss, and the amount of loss far exceeds the result of "stop loss".
The execution of "stop loss", because it is a psychological preparation in advance and a small loss, will not bring a negative shadow to the subsequent operation. However, "cutting meat" and its greater loss will cause a lot of damage to the operator's psychology, if you can't recuperate in time, it will often make the subsequent operation, wrong again and again.
However, if you always have a lot of thoughts about the stock price trend, it is still better to "cut the meat" than to continue to hold the shares.
After all, "cutting meat" can stop losses, and the consequences of holding shares may only make greater losses. It's just that after the "cutting meat" comes out, it is not appropriate to immediately enter the market to buy and sell, but to take a break from the mentality. Wait until your mentality is stable before considering entering the market.
"Take profit" is also an indispensable and important part of the operation.
The purpose of taking profit is not only to convert the profits that have entered the book into real money, but also to convert them into real money. It is also an ingenious mechanism that allows profits to grow as the stock price continues to grow.
Even in a big bull market, it is impossible for stock prices to go up and down. If you don't win, you will never make money.
Stop loss lines, which can and must have clear price levels. The establishment of the take-profit line is a dynamic line with no fixed price, and it will continue to move up with the stock price.
To set a take-profit line, the principle is two-point:
1. The stock price of ** began to turn downward and fell to a profitable price somewhere;
2. Be profitable.
*In the process, it is not uncommon for the stock price to move forward and take a step back (stagnation or downward). Therefore, the specific take-profit line needs to be determined according to the situation in the operation, as long as it meets the above two principles.
However, it is necessary to establish a beneficial mindset: any take-profit operation, it is correct! As long as you make money, it's right.
Because, in the face of an inaccurate** stock price trend, greed and cowardice are not mistakes!
Looking at the take-profit line in hindsight, whether it is set too wide or too narrow, there is no need to reflect, no one is a god. Concepts such as perfectionism and profit maximization are often the poison of operation.
Only by not winning, but letting the profit disappear and turn into a loss, is the real mistake!
Operate only in homeopathy.
Practice has proved that in the contrarian trend of stock price operation, any analytical method will lose its role (the so-called "passivation") or become insignificant. Therefore, it is very common to lose money as soon as you buy in a contrarian trend.
Therefore, never go against the trend**.
The highest strategy in the contrarian trend is to wait and see.
The concept of homeopathic and contrarian trends is determined by the time period.
For long-term operations, the bull market and bear market of the overall situation are homeopathic and contrarian;
However, for the ** operation, a small adjustment in the bull market is a contrarian state;
If in the eyes of the super-** operator, one or two days of ** also constitutes homeopathy; And even in the bull market, as long as the ** falls by a few points on a certain day, for the super ** operation, the day is already a bear market environment.
Therefore, for people who operate in different time periods, the concept of homeopathy and contrarianism is not exactly the same.
Therefore, correctly defining the trend and the contrarian trend and making it suitable for one's own operation cycle is also a part of the operation that cannot be ignored.
A correct and beneficial process of operation should be:
1. Use a certain technical analysis method to find and confirm the probability advantage that the best depends on;
2. Determine the degree of risk we are prepared to accept this operation (how much money can be lost in case of mistakes), and set a clear stop-loss line;
3. According to the probability advantage of a certain price trend, it is possible;
4. When the stock price trend is contrary to your own **, calmly accept this reality and continue to observe calmly;
5. When the stock price continues to fall to the stop-loss line, resolutely sell and end the operation;
6. When the stock price is really good, it is easy to continue to observe, let the stock price continue, and set the take-profit line at the same time;
7. When the stock price is no longer at a standstill, consider selling;
8. When the stock price of ** begins to turn downward and touches the take-profit line, resolutely sell.