Recently, Liang Jianzhang, a domestic economic demographer, said that he was pessimistic about the future pension system, saying that the elderly will be in 30 yearsEither the pension will be halved, or the retirement will be delayed until the age of seventy or eighty。How can this matter be resolved?
This incident is not to say that the experts have a bad idea, it may just paint a picture of pessimistic expectations. In fact, we ordinary people should not hide our ears and steal the bell, thinking that the future is still very optimistic.
In 2023, the number of people in our country will decrease again. The number of newborns that year was 9.02 million, and the number of deaths was 11.1 million, a decrease of 2.08 million. At the same time, China's population over the age of 60 has increased by 16.93 million.
According to the number of people by age and gender, the total number of people under the age of 30 in China at the end of 2022 is:4.700 million people, the number of people in their 30s and 60s is currently what we are6.600 million people, the population of 60-90 years old is about2.7.6 billion people。These three age groups make up the vast majority of our population.
From the perspective of development substitution**, if we say that in the future, 9.02 million births per year will be counted, and the mortality rate is not considered, it will only accumulate in 30 years2.700 million people
If a certain mortality rate is taken into account (assuming a total of 4% over 30 years), the population of 30 to 60 years is expected to be4.500 million people
The number of people aged 60 and 90, the mortality rate of this part is not negligible. The probability of death for people over the age of 60 will increase dramatically, and even the annual mortality rate of about 90 years old can reach more than 10 percent. For the sake of simplicity, assuming a mortality rate of 1 3, it is expected that the population of 60 90 years old will be left by then4.400 million peopleAround.
In this case, it is estimated that the total population of our country will be about 1.2 billion in 30 years. If the retirement age remains unchanged, it will be mainly 20 to 60 years old400 million people, supporting about 400 million people who are retired. After all, there are many people who retire at the age of 50. There are also some people who participate in the old-age insurance for urban and rural residents, but now the vast majority of people participate in the basic old-age insurance for employees.
According to the current level, how much pension insurance premiums do each person pay? At present, the upper and lower limits of the payment base across the country are generally between 4,000 and 30,000 yuan, and most of the average wages are around 7,000 yuan.
According to the calculation of 7,000 yuan, with a contribution ratio of 22% (the proportion of average flexible employment and unit payment), you need to pay 1,540 yuan per month. In fact, when many people participate in insurance and pay, they will not choose to pay the average salary, but choose the minimum base payment. Let's assume that the monthly payment amount is $1,400.
5.400 million people, first of all, we must exclude some groups who go to school and receive education or are severely disabled, individuals who are unwilling to participate in insurance, and those who are unemployed and unable to participate in insurance. In fact, in 2022, China's pension insurance participation rate has just broken throughEmployed personsof 50%. Assuming that the participation rate can be increased after 30 years, it can be achievedAll personnel80% of the . The number of contributors is 43.2 billion people.
Calculated,The total amount of social security contributions is 604.8 billion yuan per month.
In addition, the state will also give a large number of subsidies to social security ** every year, and the amount of subsidies given by the government to social security ** will reach 13 trillion yuan, accounting for about 1 4 of the total amount of financing. Let's assume a future elevation of 1 to 3,The monthly subsidy is 200 billion yuan
Therefore, the total financing standard is about 800 billion yuan.
If you support 400 million retirees, the average monthly salary is about 2,000 yuan
According to the figures released in the 2022 Statistical Bulletin on the Development of Human Resources and Social Security, the number of retirees is 136.44 million, and the total expenditure of pension insurance is 5,903.5 billion yuanThe average monthly salary per capita is 3,605 yuanThis is a reduction of about 45%.
Of course, this premiseIt is calculated at the current level of social wages。Since the average social wage level is still rising, this embarrassment can be offset to a large extent. However, it is true that the pressure on the future pension is quite high. Recruitment of Social Security Knowledge Sharing Officer