Overnight market
Data**: Exchanges
2 19: The market is worried about the poor demand outlook, but the situation in the Middle East is still tense, and international oil prices closed slightly higher. nymex*** is closed due to the U.S. ** day holiday, and there is no settlement price; ICE Oil**04 Contract 8356 up 0$09 barrel or 011%。China's main contract 2404 rose 281 to 6003 yuan barrel, up 3 in the night5 to 603$8 barrel. 
Data**: Exchanges
Macro
The central bank launched a reverse repurchase operation of 32 billion yuan on February 19, and the winning interest rate was 18%。Wind data shows that the reverse repurchase of 100 billion yuan expired on the same day, so the net withdrawal of 68 billion yuan in a single day.
The fourth meeting of the Committee for Comprehensively Deepening Reform presided over by national leaders emphasized that it is necessary to establish and improve a land management system that is more efficiently connected with macro policies and regional development, and enhance the ability of land elements to guarantee the high-quality development of advantageous areas.
**Approved the "Overall Plan for the Construction of Shanghai Oriental Hub International Business Cooperation Zone", which requires making good use of the institutional innovation achievements of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, creating a highly convenient carrier for international business exchanges, coordinating development and security, better connecting the domestic and international markets, making better use of domestic and international resources, and making greater contributions to promoting high-level opening up.
The Bundesbank released a monthly report saying that the German economy could shrink slightly in the first quarter of this year, leading to a technical recession, but also warned that there is no need to be too pessimistic about this. The report notes that there is no evidence of a sustained, broad-based, and markedly weakened recession in economic activity.
The European Union officially launched the Red Sea escort operation on February 19. The action plan lasts for one year and can be renewed. At present, Belgium, Italy, Germany, France and other countries plan to send a number of ** to the Red Sea region.
Industry News
According to the current start and stop plan, in February, 1 independent alkylated oil company started and 2 stopped production, and the amount of alkylated oil commodities in the domestic market increased first and then decreased, and the overall range may fall slightly, which has a limited impact on the overall domestic fundamentals. At present, with the end of the Spring Festival holiday, the frequency of travel of residents around the country has declined significantly, and the terminal gasoline market demand may usher in a negative turning point, inhibiting the market trading atmosphere, and the gasoline market in late February is mainly based on continuing to catch up with the monthly sales task, which will also inhibit the gasoline market. Under the containment of weak demand, there is resistance to the continued upward movement, or weakening.
*Gradually increase dotp** narrow finishing.
After the holiday, most of the dotp devices have recovered as scheduled, and the increase rate of this year's start is expected to be slightly faster than in previous years, and the supply consumption of octanol has also increased, which may support the bottom of octanol and limit the profit margin of octanol. The resumption of work of DOTP downstream factories is slightly later than that of plasticizer companies, and the demand for DOTP has increased slightly slowly, which is under pressure in the short term, but under the support of costs, the DOTP market is expected to make limited profits, and the market may show a trend after falling. Pay attention to the downstream resumption of work and the speed of DOTP delivery.
During the Spring Festival, the domestic start of high melamine ** fluctuated steadily.
During the Spring Festival, the overall change in the melamine market was limited, and it fluctuated steadily. It is expected that at the end of February, with the recovery of downstream demand and the support of the cost side, the melamine market will rise steadily. However, the problem of high domestic start-up is still continuing, or it will become an uncertain factor restricting the recovery of the three-amine market after the holiday, and it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the start-up status of domestic enterprises.
The terminal demand has not yet recovered, and the polyester filament yarn is off to a good start after the holiday.
On the whole, polyester filament manufacturers have a strong willingness to rise after the holiday, and the current cost support is limited, and the polyester filament market may rise slightly, and there is no obvious sign of improvement in terminal demand, so manufacturers are more cautious in pulling up. The cost support will affect the short-term trend of polyester filament, and the medium and long-term market still needs to pay attention to the terminal orders.
It is expected that the short-term synthetic rubber will be stable and strong.
At the end of the Spring Festival holiday, at present, the industry in the field has returned to the market, and most of them have entered the state of shipment, but the main downstream tire factories mostly choose to start work after the fifteenth day of the first month, and it is difficult to significantly boost the demand side, and the transaction is mainly based on the delivery of pre-orders. On the cost side, driven by the high-level operation of the main raw material butadiene, some products in the industrial chain have ushered in a "good start" phenomenon. On the whole, the demand side still has some support after the holiday, and under the expectation of a stronger cost side, it is expected that in February, the varieties of the synthetic rubber industry chain will be stable and strong, and they will wait for the actual transaction guidance.
Supply and demand continue to play acrylic acid and ester market is stable and may be raised.
After the holiday, supply and demand are expected to increase, and the upstream and downstream games are difficult to change, but under the constraints of cost pressure, acrylic acid and ester factories have more price sentiment, and it is expected that the domestic acrylic acid and ester ** trend will be stable after the holiday. Focus on the downstream replenishment after the holiday and the impact of the change in the trend of raw materials after the holiday on the market.
It is expected that the carbon black market will weaken steadily after the holiday.
After the holiday, the raw coal tar ** may be stored downward, and the downstream terminal will maintain just the need to get the goods; However, considering the serious losses of carbon black enterprises in the early stage, the offer of carbon black merchants is slightly firm, and it is expected that the carbon black market will weaken steadily after the holiday.
Industry dynamics
By the end of 2023, 5,095 green factories have been built at the national level, accounting for more than 17% of the total output value of the manufacturing industry, and the total output value of the environmental protection equipment manufacturing industry is expected to exceed 970 billion yuan. This year, China will strive to cultivate 1,000 new green factories at the national level.
According to a report released by the International Trade Research Institute of the Korean Association, the demand recovery rate of China's IT industry has reached 9 this year3%, which is more than the global average of 68%, which is expected to boost South Korea's IT exports to China.
According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in January, China's truck market sold a total of 28880,000 units, down 7% m/m and up 82% y/y. Among them, the heavy-duty truck market sales 9690,000 units, up 86% m/m and 99% y/y.
Zhejiang Province released this year's energy storage target, plans to establish a reward and subsidy mechanism for grid-side energy storage demonstration projects, introduce new energy storage management measures and user-side energy storage construction guidelines, promote the healthy development of the industry, and add 1.5 million kilowatts of new energy storage.
Since the first batch of project "white lists" pushed by the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism in various cities, banks and financial institutions have accelerated project docking and approval, and the four major state-owned banks alone have approved more than 200 projects, involving loans of more than 100 billion yuan.
Economic Calendar
Tuesday (February 20).
06:30 U.S. February 16 COMEX** Inventory - Daily Update (100 oz.)
06:30 US SPDR** holdings on February 19 - daily update (tons).
09:15 China's one-year loan market** interest rate (%) in February
21:30 Canada's non-seasonally adjusted CPI YoY (%) in January
21:30 Canada's non-seasonally adjusted CPI MoM (%) in Jan
21:30 Bank of Canada's core CPI (%) in January