In the photovoltaic industry, the recent performance of the n-type cell market, especially the TOPCon cell, has attracted much attention. According to Trendforce's latest data, the range of N-type TOPCON cells this week is 046-0.48 yuan w, the average ** reached 047 yuan w, an increase of 1 cent from the previous period. It is worth noting that the price of n-type silicon wafers remained stable at 2 yuan, and the survey feedback showed that there were differences in the price adjustment range of various companies, among which the transaction of first-tier companies was more ideal, which indicates that the profitability of overall n-type cell products has picked up.
Since entering the fourth quarter of 2023, the demand for n-type products has increased significantly in the bidding of domestic power station projects. The proportion of n-type bidding for most projects exceeds 70%, and some projects even clearly put forward the requirements for all-n-type configuration, showing that downstream investors have gradually deepened their understanding and recognition of the advantages of n-type batteries, and the market demand has shown an accelerating trend.
Looking back on Q3 2022, many leading domestic PV companies have joined the TOPCon camp and started large-scale expansion plans, but the actual capacity release is far lower than the market's planning and expectations. For example, in the second quarter, the market expected that TOPCON's effective capacity would exceed 600GW by the end of this year, while the actual figure by the end of the year was only 260GW+. In the current environment of intensified reshuffle in the photovoltaic industry and the overall contraction of A** field financing, it is expected that enterprises in the industry will be more rational and cautious in capital expenditure and expansion plans next year.
In addition, there are increasingly significant differences between companies in terms of the performance of n-type cell production lines, which is reflected in the performance of production scheduling in the past few months. On the one hand, technical difficulties such as yield improvement and product consistency in the process of production line commissioning have caused an obvious gap in production efficiency between enterprises. On the other hand, leading companies such as Jinko continue to launch micro-innovative processes such as double-sided passivation, frontal SE (selective emitter) technology, SE+ LIF LECO, and are expected to start applying new iterative technologies such as 0BB (busbar-less) and poly layer optimization in 2024, which will further widen the gap between advanced and backward enterprises in the industry.
At the same time, P-type batteries, especially PERC batteries, are under great pressure, and the operating rate of third-party markets has dropped to less than 4%, and the operating rate of second-tier enterprises is even lower, marking the beginning of the process of phasing out P-type PERC batteries.
Based on the above analysis, we recommend focusing on the following types of companies:
In the field of TOPCon batteries, it is recommended to pay attention to companies with strong technical R&D strength and market share, such as Junda Co., Ltd. and JinkoSolar;
In terms of integrated layout, companies such as JinkoSolar, JA Solar, LONGi Green Energy, Trina Solar, Canadian Solar and Tongwei have a favorable position in the market competition due to their strong vertical integration capabilities.
In terms of slurry, as high-quality slurry suppliers, Juhe Materials and Dike are expected to benefit from the growth of market demand brought about by the expansion of n-type cell production capacity.
Note: The data and views in this article are provided by the new team of China Merchants Electric and are for reference only.
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