Germany's import and export data are out, global demand is weak, and the export value for the whole of 2023 will fall by 14%。
According to the latest data released by the German Federal Statistical Office on February 5, due to weak global demand, Germany's imports and exports fell more than expected in December 2023, and the export value of the month fell by 46%, the biggest drop in a year, and imports fell 67%。At the same time, Germany's full-year exports for 2023 fell by 14%, and the import value fell by 97%。Economists and experts in Germany have expressed concern about the health of Europe's largest economy and the possibility that Germany could slip back into recession. They pointed out that in addition to weak foreign trade, Germany will also face multiple challenges in 2024, such as austerity measures, ongoing strikes by train drivers and chain disruptions caused by the Red Sea crisis. Economist Brzeski points out that exports, like the rest of the German economy, remain in the twilight zone between recession and stagnation.
According to the survey, sentiment in Germany's export sector is clouded, with most sectors still expecting a decline in exports in the coming months. In January 2024, the German Institute for Economic Research's export expectations index increased from minus 7 in December 20231 point to minus 84 points. Germany's export economy got off to a poor start to the new year. Exporters need new impetus. According to the IFO survey, in January, Germany 369% of manufacturers reported a lack of orders, up from 360%。The situation in the service sector is not much better. A survey on the 5th showed that business activity in the German service sector fell for the fourth consecutive month in January due to weak demand. It can be seen that the weakening of global demand has had an impact on the German manufacturing sector. Kruger, chief economist at Hauck Aughaeuser Lampe, a German private bank, said: "The global economy is too weak to provide any momentum. ”
Germany is the leader of European industry, and if something goes wrong with Germany, the EU will be doomed soon.