In an exchange with ** institutional investors after the release of the 2023 annual performance forecast, Muyuan said that as of the end of last year, the number of sows that the company could reproduce was 31290,000 heads, a year-on-year increase300,000 headsAbout, corresponding to this year's pig slaughter will also have a certain increase, the growth ratio is expected to be about 10%.
In 2023, Muyuan will sell a total of 6,381 live pigs60,000 heads (including 6,226 commercial pigs.)70,000 heads, 136 piglets70,000 heads and 18 breeding pigs10,000 heads), from which it can be concluded that its slaughter volume in 2024 is expected to reach exceeded70 million heads
The actual slaughter volume will be affected by various factors such as the company's production and operation arrangements, production performance fluctuations, etc., and the specific slaughter volume range guidance for 2024 will be disclosed in the 2023 annual report. The company noted.
In fact, Muyuan originally set a target of 65 million to 71 million pigs in 2023, but revised this target to 62.5 million to 64 million in early December of that year. The main reason given at that time was that the sales strategy was appropriately adjusted in order to avoid a stampede.
According to the company's hog sales briefing, its average commercial hog sales price in December 2023 is indeed the lowest in the whole year at only 1342 yuan kg. However, its pig sales in the month were obviously "large", reaching 66310,000 heads, not only the highest value in a single month of the year, but also a month-on-month increase of about 25%.
Business situation and future prospects
According to the performance forecast of Muyuan shares, its net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023 is expected to be a loss3.9-4.7 billion yuan, the main reason is that the average sales price of live pigs last year fell sharply by about 20% year-on-year. This is also the first annual loss since Muyuan went public in 2014 - the company also achieved a net profit attributable to the parent company of nearly 13.3 billion yuan in 2022.
According to the latest exchange meeting, the average complete cost of pig breeding in Muyuan in 2023 is15.0 yuan kgaround, compared to 15 in the whole of 20227 yuan kg has decreased significantly, and the continuous decline in cost is mainly due to the improvement of its production performance: the average survival rate of the whole process is 85%, and the daily weight gain is about 800g.
In 2024, the company will continue to improve production efficiency and reduce breeding costs through continuous innovation and implementation of pig breeding, nutritional formula, health management, intelligence and other technologies. It noted.
For the future cost reduction path, Muyuan said that it is necessary to narrow the cost gap between different field lines while continuously reducing the cost center, especially eliminating the high-cost field line with a cost of more than 16 yuan kg. "To achieve this goal, the company will:TechnologywithManagementAs the two core cost reduction work. In terms of technology, disease prevention and control is the most important work at present, and the company should open up various technical paths to achieve continuous improvement of production indicators; In terms of management, the company should do a good job in the management of people, and continue to train and empower front-line employees and management cadres. ”
It also pointed out that the recent piglets and commercial pigs in some provinces have a certain **, mainly due to short-term supply and demand changes before the holiday. "For the whole year, the overall performance in 2024 is expected to be more optimistic than in 2023. "The reason for this also includes two aspects: on the supply side, the current breeding sows are still at a high level, but the overall trend is downward, and the number of pigs in 2024 is expected to be lower than last year; On the demand side, as the economy gradually stabilizes, demand is expected to rise to a certain extent in 2024.
In terms of meat business, Muyuan will slaughter a total of live pigs in 202313.26 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 80%, and the capacity utilization rate increased from 25% in 2022 to 46%, but it still did not reach the break-even point of its estimated utilization rate of 50%. The company said that due to the short production time of some plants, the slaughtering meat business has not yet achieved profitability in 2023, but the average loss level has dropped from about 120 yuan in 2022 to about 70 yuan in 2023.
Muyuan also said that in the face of the current external market situation, the company will reasonably control the pace of production and operation and the level of planned capital expenditure. The company's capital expenditure for the whole year of 2023 will be 16 billion to 17 billion yuan, and it is expected to be halved this year8 billion yuanAbout, of which the slaughterhouse construction expenditure is expected to be about 700 million yuan, and the maintenance and upgrading of fixed assets is expected to be 20-3 billion yuan. "The capital expenditure for the new construction of breeding capacity has a certain elasticity, and the company will adjust it according to the changes in the market environment and operating conditions. It emphasized.
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