Heavyweights such as Toyota Motor and SoftBank Group continued to push Japan** higher, with the Nikkei 225 hitting its highest level since 1990 and just 1 point shy of its all-time high of 38,9572%。
Text: "Autobots" Zhang Heng.
This week, the Nikkei 225 index ended the game at 4The 31% increase led the world.
On February 16, the Nikkei 225 Index was 086% at 38487At 24 points, it touched 38865 at the highest point of the session06 o'clock. This is the same as the record of 38,957 in December 1989The intraday high of 44 points is less than 100 points.
The current round of bull market in Japanese stocks started from around 26,000 points in January 2023, and in less than 14 months, the cumulative increase has been nearly 50%. Due to the ultra-loose monetary policy implemented by overseas central banks such as the Federal Reserve, there is abundant global funds, and in order to seek higher yields, international hot money has turned its attention to the Japanese market. Japan**, on the other hand, has relatively low valuations and high levels of profitability and dividends, while the depreciation of the yen and the Bank of Japan's negative interest rate policy have reduced financing costs.
Warren Buffett's increase in Japanese stocks has undoubtedly boosted the optimism of international investors about Japanese stocks. Buffett said that investment in Japan will continue to increase Berkshire's value in the coming years. Driven by the god of stocks, giants such as hedging **point72, citadel, blackstone, and kkr have also visited Japan one after another.
The Tokyo ** Stock Exchange is also pushing listed companies to improve their corporate governance, requiring them to pay more attention to their book value ratio and cost of capital. Many companies have begun to launch buyback programs, and Japan's buybacks hit a record high in the 2022-2023 fiscal year. In contrast, buybacks in the U.S. have slowed.
Financial institutions believe that Japan** is expected to continue its growth trend. It will benefit from the following factors: Japan's exit from deflationary expectations, a positive cycle of wage growth, stability and controllability of monetary policy, geopolitical uncertainty, etc.
In terms of heavyweights, Toyota's share price continues to refresh record highs. As of February 16**, the stock price was 34140 yen shares, the market capitalization reached 4303 trillion yen. In 2023, Toyota's stock price has accumulated by 429%。Only one and a half months have passed in 2024, and it has risen by another 318%。
Another heavyweight that has driven the recent strength of Japanese stocks is SoftBank Group. It has not only benefited greatly from the successful listing of its Arm Holdings, but also caught the AI train. Its share price rose from 6,637 yen on February 7 to 8,315 yen on February 16, giving it a market capitalization of 1219 trillion yen. In the development of automotive chips and intelligence, ARM also has the potential to occupy a place.
It is worth noting that Japan's auto stocks, as an important part of Japan**, account for about 10% of the Nikkei 225 index. Japan's auto stocks have been outperforming recently supported by a number of positive factors.
First, Japanese auto stocks have benefited from the recovery of the global auto market.
In 2023, global car sales increased by 8 percent year-on-year9%, up to 10.2 billion units, a record high. Among them, the sales of new energy vehicles increased by 67% year-on-year4% to 11.3 million units, accounting for 111%。Japanese automakers have a significant share of the global automotive market, especially in major markets such as the United States, Europe, and China.
Japanese diesel-electric hybrid models are very popular in the U.S. market. Among the top 10 most watched new energy vehicles in the U.S. market, the top three are Toyota R**4 hybrid, Honda CR-V hybrid, and Tesla Model 3. In the entire list, hybrid models account for 6, including Highlander hybrid, Camry hybrid, Accord hybrid and other models.
Second, Japanese auto stocks have benefited from the depreciation of the yen and the increase in overseas demand.
The Japanese yen exchange rate against the US dollar, from 108 in September 20235 yen The dollar depreciated to 150 in February 20242 yen and the dollar, with a depreciation of 384%。The depreciation of the yen has reduced the export costs of Japanese automakers and improved their competitiveness and profitability in overseas markets.
At the same time, the economic recovery of major economies such as the United States and Europe has also increased the demand for Japanese automobiles. According to the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, in 2023, Japan's car exports increased by 12 percent year-on-year6% to 5.3 million units. Of these, exports to the United States increased by 174%, exports to the EU increased by 137%。
Third, Japan's auto stocks have benefited from corporate reforms and improved performance. Over the past few years, Japanese automotive companies have carried out a series of reforms and innovations to cope with the changes in the automotive industry.
Toyota Motor launched the "Toyota New Global Architecture" (TNGA) to improve production efficiency and product quality, while increasing R&D investment and developing more new energy vehicles and smart vehicles. SoftBank Group entered the automotive chip market through the acquisition of Arm Holdings, a British chip design company, and competed with giants such as Nvidia and Intel.
In 2023, the average net profit of Japanese auto companies increased by 31%, much higher than the 95%。Major auto companies such as Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Mazda, Mitsubishi, and Suzuki have all raised their full-year earnings forecasts for 2023.
However, it is worth noting that the Japanese economy experienced a larger-than-expected decline in the fourth quarter of 2023. GDP fell by 04%, which means that the Japanese economy has shrunk for two consecutive quarters and has officially entered a recession. Japan's domestic demand continued to weaken, with private consumption falling 02%, household spending fell 2 percent year-on-year5%, down for the 10th consecutive month. In 2023, Japan's nominal GDP will be overtaken by Germany, falling to fourth place in the world.
Japan's aging population, low fertility rate, declining technological innovation capabilities and industrial competitiveness, heavy debt burden, and deep-rooted deflation expectations have constrained the growth potential of the Japanese economy. Japan** and the Bank of Japan have used a variety of monetary and fiscal instruments to the extreme in order to stimulate economic growth. They pinned their hopes on driving economic development.
As for the easing policy of overseas central banks and the continuous inflow of overseas funds, once these factors change, Japan** may face adjustment. Most directly, if the dollar enters a depreciation cycle, then the yen is likely to start an appreciation cycle, if the appreciation is too fast, it will not only affect the profitability of Japanese exporters, but also weaken the performance of Japanese companies and investor confidence. This will affect the valuation level of Japan**. 【Copyright Notice】This article is the original manuscript of "Autobots", and it is not allowed to be unauthorized **.