Over the past year, China's real estate market has been under pressure, and the overall situation is still in a period of low adjustment, and this pressure will continue into 2024.
In January 2024, the new housing market ushered in a seasonal decline, and the transaction of new homes in the key 30 cities fell year-on-year, and the overall bottoming continued**.
The sales performance of the top 100 real estate companies is still not optimistic. The sales amount of TOP100 real estate enterprises is only 2350600 million yuan, down 342%。The scale of monthly performance hit a new low this year.
The industry is still in the stage of risk clearance, with Shanghai and Guangzhou successively loosening restrictions on purchases, policy easing will also enter the accelerated landing stage, but it will take time for market confidence and industry expectations to recover, and in 2024, real estate companies still need to take active countermeasures to adapt to new changes, promote sales decentralization, and ensure liquidity security.
At the beginning of 2024, the pressure on the property market is still large, the market expectation is insufficient, and the demand and purchasing power are sluggish, and the overall operation is low.
In January, the performance scale of the top 100 real estate companies hit a new low in recent years. In terms of specific data, the sales amount of the top 100 real estate enterprises is 2350600 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 342%, down 479%。The full-caliber sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies is only 2554900 million yuan, the scale of performance decreased by 36% year-on-year and 46% month-on-month5%。
From the perspective of real estate companies, there were 6 real estate companies with full-caliber sales of more than 10 billion yuan in January, namely Poly Development, Vanke Real Estate, China Merchants Shekou, China Resources Land, China Overseas Real Estate and Binjiang Group, of which Poly Development ranked first in the top 100 with 20.3 billion yuan.
Although the recent policy has been continuously optimized and released, the regulator supports the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises and boosts market confidence. However, it will take time for market confidence and industry expectations to recover, and it is expected that there will be no obvious signs of warming in the short term. In 2024, real estate companies still need to take active measures to promote sales decentralization and ensure the safety of liquidity.
The pattern of differentiation between real estate companies is intensifying.
In January 2024, the sales threshold of each echelon of the top 100 real estate companies was further lowered compared with the same period last year, and the threshold value fell to the lowest level in recent years. Among them, the sales threshold of TOP50 real estate enterprises has dropped the most, with a monthly threshold of 9600 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 385%。
In addition, the threshold for the sales amount of TOP10 real estate enterprises is 72400 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 327%。The pattern of the top 30 real estate enterprises has intensified, and the threshold values are 16600 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 381%。The threshold for the sales amount of TOP100 real estate companies has also been lowered by 217% to 3700 million yuan.
In January, the new housing market fell seasonally, with the key 30 cities** down 47% month-on-month and still up 16% year-on-year; The transaction fell year-on-year, and the overall bottom continued to be built**.
The performance of first-tier cities was slightly better than that of second- and third-tier cities, and the overall month-on-month decline was lower than the average of 30 cities.
CRIC data shows that the four major first-tier cities traded a total of 1.52 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of %. Among them, the heat of the Shanghai and Beijing markets has steadily declined, with a month-on-month decline of more than 4%. Taking Shanghai as an example, although the beginning of the year is a good new deal, the superposition continues: Jinshan will be exempted from transportation fees within 5 years, the proportion of the second set of down payments of the provident fund will be reduced, and the new policies for talents will be introduced in Fengxian and Qingpu New Town, etc., but the policy effect is not as expected, and the new housing transactions in Shanghai in 2024 will be carried out week by week, and the single purchase restriction relaxation policy at the end of the month will be released, and the stimulus effect of the transaction side is expected to be reflected in February. Although Guangzhou and Shenzhen fell month-on-month, they continued to increase year-on-year. Guangzhou ushered in the relaxation of purchase restrictions at the end of the month, and the effect of the policy still needs time to continue to ferment.
The total transaction volume in second- and third-tier cities was 7.37 million square meters, down 44% month-on-month and 18% year-on-year. From the perspective of cities, only Chengdu has a transaction volume of more than 1 million square meters in January, followed by Xi'an, which also reached 700,000 square meters in January, and the rest of the second-tier cities have less than 500,000 square meters of transactions in a single month. From a month-on-month perspective, Changzhou rebounded in stages, with a slight increase of 9% month-on-month, and most cities ushered in a phased decline. On a year-on-year basis, the transaction performance of Xi'an, Zhengzhou, Foshan, Wuxi, Zhuhai and Jiaxing was slightly better than that of the same period last year.
At present, transactions in most cities are still in a downturn, and the new policies in some cities are also showing a decreasing marginal effect, and only a few central and western cities such as Chengdu and Xi'an have strong market resilience.
It is predicted that February, coinciding with the traditional Spring Festival, will be superimposed on the impact of the current downturn, and it is expected that supply and demand will continue to be weak.
At the end of the month, Guangzhou, Suzhou, Shanghai and other cities have successively loosened purchase restrictions, and the core first- and second-tier cities are likely to follow up one after another.
For real estate companies, it is still necessary to take active measures to adapt to new changes, promote sales decentralization, and ensure liquidity security.
Attached: Sales ranking of China's real estate enterprises in January 2024.
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Article**: Ding Zuyu commented on the property market