Recently, China and Russia have launched negotiations on the Siberia-2 pipeline, and one of the key issues is natural gas**. The Chinese side hopes that Russia will be able to reduce the gas ** to 271$3 thousand cubic meters. However, Mongolia was not invited to participate in the talks, raising concerns in Mongolia. The Prime Minister of Mongolia called for a trilateral summit to strengthen cooperation between China, Mongolia and Russia in energy and transportation. The reason why Mongolia is so tense is that the Trans-Siberia-2 pipeline will pass through Mongolian territory and will have an impact on Mongolia. This article will focus on Mongolia's concerns and the tripartite game between China, Russia and Mongolia.
The Siberian-2 pipeline is an important project jointly established by China and Russia in 2020. According to Russia's plan, the pipeline will be able to deliver 50 billion cubic meters of natural gas to China every year, a third more efficient than the previous Siberia-1. This means that the Siberian-2 pipeline will surpass the Nordic Russian gas pipeline to become the world's largest gas transmission pipeline. However, according to Russian design, the pipeline will also pass through the territory of Mongolia. This adds a complication to the business between China and Russia. Russia wants China to pay for the pipeline, including $67 billion in direct investment and $27 billion in construction materials. While both China and Russia could benefit from this cooperation, why did China refuse to sign a treaty?
The political situation in Mongolia has been unstable, and back in 2022, several riots broke out due to internal power struggles and corruption. The demonstrators even carried out smashing and looting activities in front of the ** building, causing concern about Mongolia's political stability. The transit of the pipeline through Mongolia is bound to have a certain impact on China's energy security and investment stability. And Mongolia's relationship with the United States is also speculative. In recent years, Mongolia has held a number of joint military exercises with the United States and plans to invite American troops to station. In addition, in the negotiations with SpaceX, Mongolia even involved matters such as Starlink cooperation and satellite launches, which caused concerns about China's national defense and security. Mongolia's repeated jumps between China, the United States, and Russia make China's concerns about the pipeline passing through Mongolia not unreasonable.
In the tripartite game between China, Russia and Mongolia, Russia hopes to obtain financial support from China to meet the needs of pipeline construction due to lack of finance. However, the Chinese side does not want to bear all the costs alone, and wants to be able to share them fairly. For Mongolia, the pipeline passes through its borders, presenting both potential economic opportunities and security and political risks. Therefore, Mongolia hopes to strengthen cooperation with China and Russia through the trilateral summit to ensure its own interests and security. However, in the current situation, China and Russia do not seem to be willing to invite Mongolia to participate in the consultations, which has led to concerns and appeals from Mongolia.
To sum up, the Sino-Russian negotiations on the Siberia-2 pipeline, without inviting Mongolia to participate, have raised concerns in Mongolia. The Prime Minister of Mongolia called for a trilateral summit to strengthen cooperation between China, Mongolia and Russia in the field of energy and transport. However, due to Mongolia's political instability and cooperation with the United States, the Chinese side refused to sign the contract, fearing the potential hidden dangers of Mongolia to the pipeline. In the future game, China, Russia and Mongolia need to seek a balance to ensure the interests and stability of all parties.