[Value Catalog]: Research report center with opinions.
It is optimistic that high-voltage fast charging and 46 series large cylindrical batteries will enter large-scale commercial mass production in 2024, driving the industrial chain to enter the 1-10 volume stage. Among them, super-rechargeable batteries, automotive silicon carbide functional devices, large cylindrical batteries, high-nickel ternary cathodes, silicon-based anodes, LIFSI, liquid-cooled supercharging stations, etc., will reach a new high in market size in 2024. In terms of growth rate sustainability, the average growth rate of super-rechargeable batteries, automotive silicon carbide power devices, large cylindrical batteries, and silicon-based anodes will reach 195 from 2024 to 20274%/84.2%/68.1%/68.1%, all of which achieved a high growth rate.
Super fast charging: 800V new car cycle release, 2024 is expected to meet rapid volume
The high-voltage platform + high-rate power battery drives new energy vehicles to enter the era of 4C+ fast charging. In recent years, the energy density of lithium batteries and the power of bicycles have increased year by year, the endurance of electric vehicles has generally improved, and the energy replenishment speed of electric vehicles has become a new consumer pain point. With the breakthrough of high-rate power battery materials, the improvement of the 800V high-voltage parts industry chain, and the improvement of cooling efficiency brought about by the module-free structure of the battery, the fast charging technology has been iterated to the 4C+ level, and the energy replenishment efficiency has been further improved.
Domestic companies tend to favor 800V high-voltage architecture. The realization path of ultra-fast charging includes two types: high voltage and high current, which are dominated by large-capacity prismatic batteries in domestic power batteries, and high-current fast charging is more limited, and higher voltage becomes the ideal choice. At present, the high-power fast charging of the domestic 800V architecture will be realized on vehicles of 25-300,000 yuan, and the medium and long-term growth opportunities of high-power fast-charging batteries and upstream and downstream are coming. At the 2023 Guangzhou Auto Show, supercharging models include ZEEKR 007, AVATR 12, Zhijie S7, etc., and the unit price sinks to the range of 25-300,000 yuan. Looking forward to 2024, the mass production and delivery of 800V blockbuster models such as Ideal MEGA, Huawei Wenjie, Zhijie S7, AVATR 12, and Xiaomi will increase, and the number of supply-side models will increase, ** It is expected to achieve parity with 400V models, and we expect that 800V models will have obvious advantages in energy replenishment efficiency in 2024 and are expected to achieve rapid growth.
The upgrade of 800V high-voltage fast charging technology includes three main lines: fast-charging batteries, on-board high-power devices, and 800V high-voltage charging piles. First, the fast charging performance requirements of power battery technology are comprehensively upgraded, including power battery manufacturing, core anode materials (silicon-based anode, coating materials), new electrolyte LIFSI, conductive agent (conductive carbon black, CNT) modification, etc.; Second, the voltage requirements of high-voltage fast-charging components for power devices, high-voltage DC relays, excitation fuses, high-voltage connectors, etc. have been greatly improved, which has driven the upgrading of related parts and components; Third, high-voltage fast charging drives the charging module to upgrade to high-power, liquid-cooled supercharging.
From the perspective of battery materials, in order to solve the problems of lithium precipitation effect and mechanical effect caused by high-voltage fast charging, the performance of anode materials and electrolyte is mainly improved. When the power battery is fast charging, the lithium ions are accelerated to the negative electrode, which poses a great challenge to the negative electrode's ability to quickly receive lithium ions. If the negative electrode does not have the ability to intercalate lithium at high speed, lithium precipitation or even lithium dendrites will occur, which will lead to irreversible attenuation of battery capacity and shortening of service life, and even lithium dendrites will puncture the separator and cause the risk of short circuit. In terms of electrolyte, excellent properties such as high conductivity, high temperature resistance, flame retardancy, and anti-overcharge are required.
46 series large cylinder: The production capacity layout is accelerating, and shipments are expected to accelerate in 24 years
Large cylindrical battery shipments are expected to accelerate in 2024. Pay attention to the large-cylindrical fast-charging power battery sector that will be mass-produced, and take Tesla's sybertruck volume as the guide to achieve a breakthrough in the large-cylindrical power battery fast charging and related industrial chains. At the end of 2023, the production capacity of Tesla's Texas battery factory has gradually run smoothly, and EVE Lithium Energy has begun to increase in 2023.
The industry capacity is expected to reach 12GWh. From 2023Q3, the production efficiency of Tesla's 4680 large cylindrical battery has been significantly improved, and we expect Tesla's self-made batteries to accelerate mass production in 2024, and EVE has mass-produced 4680 batteries by the end of 2023, and it is expected to accelerate mass production and achieve loading in 2024.
The development of 46 series large cylindrical batteries will be conducive to the development of high-nickel ternary cathode materials. In order to give full play to the advantages of cylindrical battery cell heat dissipation performance and uniform internal stress distribution, the 4680 battery cell can only be equipped with high-nickel cathode material and silicon-based anode material to maximize the energy density of the battery cell and the system. This year, Rongbai Technology vigorously develops the production technology of ultra-high nickel ternary cathode materials to further improve the energy density of batteries and reduce costs, and its market share is expected to increase year by year. The company's high-nickel ternary shipments have increased steadily. High nickel ternary has become the company's main product. The scale of ternary materials continues to grow, and the output of high-nickel products exceeds 90%. From January to November 2023, the company's output of high-nickel ternary products (type 811 and NCA type) reached 890,000 tons, accounting for 97 percent of the total production8%, which is the company's most important ternary material product model.
Silicon-based anode materials have obvious advantages in energy density, and the application of 4680 batteries further opens up the market space. The theoretical energy density of graphite is 372mAh g, and the specific capacity of graphite currently applied is close to the limit. The theoretical energy density of the silicon anode is as high as 4200mAh g, which greatly improves the capacity of the single cell. Due to the influence of the expansion coefficient, silicon-based anodes are mainly used in cylindrical batteries, and 4680 cells have further opened up the silicon-based market space.
beiteri silicon carbon anode technology has a deep accumulation, significantly leading the products of its peers. The company's silicon-based anode materials started in 2006, passed the Samsung SDI certification in 2013, and became its first silicon carbon anode, and since 2017, it has cut into the Panasonic-Tesla silicon-oxygen anode chain, and by the end of 2022, the company has a production capacity of 5,000 tons of silicon-based anode materials, which corresponds to 50,000 tons of silicon-based anode production capacity according to the 10% silicon-doped ratio, and it is expected that the company's silicon-based anode production capacity will reach 20,000 tons by the end of 2024, corresponding to 200,000 tons of silicon-based anode production capacity after blending. Shanshan Co., Ltd.'s silicon-based anode product technology continues to make breakthroughs, continues to be recognized by customers at home and abroad, and achieves batch **. Silicon-oxygen products have been applied in batches in the consumer electronics and power markets, and the second-generation silicon-oxygen new anode, using continuous mixed gas coating technology, has excellent low-temperature cycling performance, and has been batched by overseas head customers; Silicon carbon products continue to iterate, the new generation of silicon carbon products have been tested by downstream customers, and the related core technologies have been authorized by the United States and Japan. The company has taken the lead in laying out a 40,000-ton integrated silicon-based anode production capacity base in Ningbo, of which the first phase of the production capacity is under construction and is expected to be put into trial production in early 2024. 
Investment advice
Looking ahead to beta opportunities in the lithium battery industry in 2024, we believe that the trend of supply and demand will remain one of the core influencing factors. We judge that the supply and demand situation of fast-charging batteries, large cylindrical batteries, large storage systems, household storage systems, high-nickel cathode materials, silicon-based anode materials, LIFSI, 800V on-board power supply systems, liquid-cooled supercharging piles and other links is relatively good, and the investment opportunities are relatively prominent. We focus on structural opportunities in each segment, especially in terms of potential breakthroughs in new markets and new technologies, specifically:
Fast charging batteries and materials: continue to be optimistic about CATL, Rongbai Technology, Hunan Yuneng, German Nano, Beiteri, Shanshan Co., Ltd., Putailai, Tianci Materials, Kangpeng Technology, etc., which have deep technology accumulation in the fast charging battery industry chain.
With the steady improvement of the yield of 46 series large cylindrical products, we expect that batch loading is expected in 2024, and at the same time, large cylindrical energy storage batteries will also bring some increments, and we continue to be optimistic about EVE, the leader in the large cylindrical battery industry chain.
800V fast charging: In 2023, the 800V architecture cycle + the acceleration of supercharging network construction is expected to drive the volume of high-voltage fast charging models in 2024, driving the rapid growth of liquid-cooled supercharging piles and on-board power supply systems.
This is an abridged excerpt from the report, the original PDF of the report
In-depth report on electrical equipment-power > energy storage battery and electrification industry: the industry's high prosperity continues, focusing on super fast charging and large cylindrical batteries-Ping An**-20240111[35 pages]".
Report**: Value Catalog