Precision reducer is a key component of the robot, and domestic technology has made steady breakthroughs
The reducer, also known as the reducer, is a power transmission mechanism. The reducer is mainly used to convert the high speed of the motor into the low speed of the working machine, and its principle is to mesh the high-speed rotating power source such as the motor and the internal combustion engine through the gear with less teeth on the input shaft of the reducer to the large gear on the output shaft, so as to reduce the speed and increase the torque. In industrial manufacturing, the operation of various mechanical equipment requires a transmission system, and the reducer is an important part of the transmission system, so it is widely used.
Precision reducer has the characteristics of small return clearance, high precision, long service life and high stability, and is usually used in CNC machine tools, robots, aerospace and other fields. The robot is the most important downstream of the precision reducer, and the precision reducer is also the core component of the industrial robot, accounting for 30% of the cost of the industrial robot.
Robots are the most important downstream of precision reducers, and semiconductor equipment, CNC machine tools and medical devices are also important downstream applications. According to the data of Guanyan Tianxia, the downstream of China's precision reducer includes industrial robots, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, flat panel display manufacturing equipment, motor manufacturing equipment, machine tools, etc., of which industrial robots account for 449%, which is the largest downstream application. As the downstream market of precision reducer, the huge market size of semiconductor, CNC machine tool and medical equipment can drive the rapid growth of demand for precision reducer, so that the downstream customers of precision reducer manufacturers can blossom in more places, reduce customer concentration, and improve product bargaining power.
The precision of the precision reducer determines the quality of the robot, and the life of the precision reducer determines the efficiency and life of the robot. In recent years, the domestic manufacturers led by the green harmonic have achieved a breakthrough in the harmonic reducer technology, the green harmonic jumped out of the involute gear design theory based on the traditional Willis theorem, based on the geometric mapping theory of the curve surface to withdraw from the conjugate tooth shape, and developed the "P" tooth shape, Laifu Harmonic developed the "δ" tooth shape, and the domestic enterprises gradually made a breakthrough in technology.
The industry concentration is high, and the industry has huge room for growth
According to our estimates, the market size of industrial robot reducer in China will reach 67 in 2022500 million yuan, and the market size of China's industrial robot reducer in 2027 will be 13 billion yuan.
The industry concentration is high, and Japan has a clear leading edge in the field of global industrial robot reducer. From a global perspective, Japan's Harmonic and Nabtesco are industry leaders, with the global market share of Harmonic and Nabtesco in 2020 being 60% and 15%, Japan's Sumitomo and Europe's Spinea having a market share of 10% and 5% respectively, and the world's top four industrial robot manufacturers have a combined market share of 90%, of which three Japanese companies occupy the top three in the world, with a combined market share of up to 85%. The representative enterprises of global harmonic deceleration include Harmonic Shimpo green harmonic, the representative enterprises of global RV reducer include Nabtesco Sumitomo, and the domestic representative enterprises include Shuanghuan Transmission, Zhongda Qinchuan Machine Tool, etc.
The demand for automation equipment has given the industry a growth driver, and humanoid robots may bring new increments
The global industrial robot market is relatively stable, and Asia and Australia are the largest markets. According to IFR data, the global installed capacity of industrial robots in 2021 was 5170,000 units, CAGR of 11% in 2016 and 2021, installation growth slowed to 10% in 2022, and growth is expected to stabilize at 7% in 2023-2025. The number of industrial robots in the world is about 34770,000 units, with a CAGR of 14% from 2016 to 2021, and the global industrial robot is growing steadily. Asia and Australia are the largest markets, with sales volume in Asia and Australia at 3810,000 units, accounting for 73 of the global market8%, the growth rate far exceeds that of other regions, and the future development potential is greater than that of other regions.
In 2020, China's labor force accounted for 58 percent of the total population4%, and the number and proportion of the working-age population have declined for many years since 2015. At the same time, China's birth rate also continues to decline, industrial robots and service robots will become an important tool for the sustainable development of the manufacturing industry and the improvement of living standards, and the downstream of reducers such as semiconductors and medical devices will also maintain stable growthPrecision reducer industrywill continue to grow. In 2022, Tesla's humanoid robot has attracted widespread attention from the society, and in the long run, humanoid robots can bring more than 10 billion market increments to precision reducers.
Investment suggestion: precision reducer is the core component of the robot, with the development of the robot industry, as well as the improvement of the level of automation in the manufacturing industry, the precision reducer has a good growth. The global precision reducer market is mainly occupied by foreign brands, and domestic companies have huge room for substitution. It is recommended to pay attention to the harmonics of the leading domestic harmonic reducer manufacturer, the leading domestic RV reducer manufacturer Shuanghuan Transmission, and the core manufacturers of precision reducers such as Zhongda De, Qinchuan Machine Tool, and Fengli Intelligence.
This is an abridged excerpt from the report, the original PDF of the report
Machinery and Equipment-Precision Reducer Industry In-depth Report: The Industry Growth is Good, and the Localization Substitution Space is Huge-Caitong**[She Weichao, Liu Junqi]-20230904[50 Pages]".
Report**: Value Catalog