According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics on February 8, household consumption** (CPI) in January 2024 fell by 08%, 03%；Industrial producers** (PPI) fell 2 percent year-on-year5%, down 02%。
Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that in January, affected by the holiday effect, residents' consumption demand continued to increase, and the national CPI was **03% for two consecutive months**; Affected by the high base of the Spring Festival staggered month in the same period last year, it decreased by 08%。Core CPI, which excludes food and energy**, was 03%, an increase comparable to the average of the same period in the past ten years; Year-on-year **04% to keep it mild**.
In the same month, affected by factors such as the fluctuation of international bulk commodities and the entry of some domestic industries into the traditional off-season of production, the national PPI decreased month-on-month and year-on-year, but the decline narrowed.
CITIC ** Chief Economist Ming Ming told the Beijing News Shell Financial Reporter that the year-on-year decline in CPI widened in January, the year-on-year decline in PPI narrowed, and the scissors gap between CPI-PPI year-on-year growth narrowed.
CPI month-on-month for two consecutive months**.
It is worth noting that due to the misalignment of the Lunar New Year and the Gregorian calendar dates, it will disturb the economic data in January and February, such as the Spring Festival pushing up consumer goods**, and the CPI in the month is often higher. The dislocation of this year's Spring Festival and the low base in 2023 may have a certain impact on the CPI in January this year, but with the weakening of the drag of the Spring Festival and tail factors, the CPI is expected to rebound in February.
Ding Yujia, a researcher at the Great Wisdom Financial Information Research Institute, told Shell Finance that historical experience shows that the CPI month-on-month increase in the month of the Spring Festival is usually the highest increase in the year, and the average month-on-month CPI of the Spring Festival in 2017-2019 and 2020-2022 is respectively9%, compared to 0 in January 20238%。High-frequency data shows that after entering February, the increase in food ** expanded.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, said that the year-on-year decline in CPI in January expanded, mainly due to the increase in the base caused by the staggered month of the Spring Festival, and the year-on-year decline in food ** in the month expanded significantly; In addition, also affected by the increase in the base in the same period last year, the year-on-year increase in services** in January also narrowed. Judging from the latest price momentum, the CPI in January was 03%, which is stable and low compared with the same period in history. However, the core CPI remained 0A steady positive growth of 4%.
Looking ahead, the impact of the staggered effect of the Spring Festival in February will be reversed, and the CPI will return to positive growth year-on-year, and the increase is expected to be 0Around 6%, it is expected to basically continue to grow positively thereafter, and the year-on-year CPI pivot will increase from 02% rebounded to 1Around 3%, the risk of deflation is further weakened. On the whole, the price increase in 2024 will be at a moderate and low level, which will provide more room for flexible adjustment of monetary policy.
Ding Yujia pointed out that looking forward to February, driven by strong consumer demand during the Spring Festival, the CPI has a strong month-on-month upward momentum, and the superimposed tail drag is reduced, and the year-on-year increase is expected to be significant.
Among them, with the continuous release of pre-holiday meat consumption demand, the completion of the breeding end of the first column, the slaughtering end is close to the holiday, the margin of pork supply has tightened, and the pork has accelerated recently. In addition, the CPI tail factor dragged down 11 percentage point, while the February drag will be reduced by 05 percentage points will also have a significant boost to the year-on-year CPI data.
The month-on-month and year-on-year declines in PPI narrowed.
Wang Qing pointed out that the PPI maintained a month-on-month decline in January, mainly because domestic demand is still weak, and the recent domestically dominated commodities such as steel, cement, and coal are stable and weak, while the price increase momentum of downstream commodities is also insufficient. However, supported by a lower base, the year-on-year decline in PPI continued to converge in the month.
February coincides with the Spring Festival, as the PPI will be lower month-on-month during the Spring Festival holiday, while the base trend of the same period last year is relatively stable, the year-on-year decline in PPI in the month may be suspended, and it is expected that the year-on-year PPI in February will remain at -2About 5%. Looking ahead, the international market is expected to stabilize in 2024, under the comprehensive promotion of the "three major projects", the decline in domestic real estate investment tends to narrow, and the inhibition of domestic leading commodities is weakened.
Ding Yujia believes that the domestic Spring Festival is approaching, the production and demand of the industrial sector have gradually slowed down to stagnation, and the main industrial products have continued to operate weakly, and coal, steel, cement, and electrolytic copper have all declined month-on-month. Looking forward to February, the resumption of work and production after the holiday is expected to drive the PPI to rebound month-on-month, due to the impact of February's tail factors or flat in January, the year-on-year decline in PPI will also tend to converge. However, under the vacuum period of economic activities and the policy window period, the market wait-and-see sentiment is strong, the demand expectation is still weak, and the PPI rebound still needs to be comprehensively assessed after the year, the repair of internal and external demand, the structural overcapacity of the middle and downstream manufacturing industries, and the positive signals on the policy side.
Beijing News Shell Financial Reporter Zhang Xiaochong.
Edited by Yue Caizhou.
Proofreading by Liu Baoqing.