High-quality author list Yesterday's 1,000-share drop in A-shares reminded me of the stock market crash in 2015. That year, on the day of the crash, almost all of them opened with a down limit. I was watching giraffes with my daughter-in-law in the Zoological and Botanical Garden, **rang, **classmate asked me: "*It's all stopped, haven't you watched the market?" ”。
I replied, "I'm looking at giraffes in the park now, and I cleared the warehouse two days ago." The classmate smiled: "No wonder you are so relaxed, I am wearing it." "To be honest, I felt pretty good at the time. Because at least thousands of institutions were buried alive by the stock market crash at that time. And I, as an individual, was able to escape the top in advance, and I had to boast that "I do have something".
However, in recent years, I don't think I've been so bad about selling before the crash. On the contrary, I think my pattern was a little smaller at that time. At that time, I should have held my position firmly, let the ** fall sharply, and then continue to increase my position in the big fall, as I have done in the past two years.
Some people may think that I am either crazy or have drunk too much, so why not escape the top if I can escape? How many pots do you have to drink to say something like this?
My reflection on the last stock market crash is like this: at that time, it seems that I sold Kweichow Moutai and all the white horse blue chips for 200 yuan per share, and 6 years later, that is, in 2021, these white horse blue chips have risen many times. Although I avoided the stock market crash, I also avoided the opportunity to make a lot of money that can only be obtained by holding on to it.
I assessed that if I did not liquidate my position before the stock market crash in the past 6 years, I would hold the shares firmly. I've definitely made a little more in 2021. The timely high escape did not bring me extraordinary investment returns. The reason is that after the high sale, the ultimate low will inevitably be pursued, otherwise the high throw will seem meaningless. The pursuit of the ultimate **low position** will eventually lead to a short**, and have to be rebought back at a relatively high position. In this way, it becomes "high throw and high suck".
My perception is that when we hold a good company, our best strategy is not to sell at the high point and buy it back at the low point. Instead, I don't do the band, I hold it firmly, and I keep it in a state where I let the wind blow and the waves blow, and I walk leisurely. If you still have spare money, then it will be even more beautiful to keep increasing your position at a low level.
Because the *** of a good company is only temporary, sooner or later it will rise back and it will hit a new all-time high. Just like many white horse stocks have fallen by 40% or even 60% now, we will find that they have risen many times in 10 years, and then we will find that their sharp decline 10 years ago is as unreal as an illusion.
So I now think that the current slumps are best seen as dreamy rather than real. Because they are temporary, not permanent. And the vast majority of us regard the current ** plunge as a permanent thing, which is bound to produce frustration and even despair.
Or the "Diamond Sutra" says it well: everything has a way, like a dream bubble, like dew and electricity, and should be viewed as such.
Holding a good company for a long time** is the investment strategy with the highest overall score. It is difficult to succeed in doing high and low sucking on the ** of a good company, even if you succeed a few times, as long as you do it wrong once, you will never have a chance to ** this good company ** again. Selling high and sucking low is a strategy that is destined to let go sooner or later.
Therefore, on the eve of the peak in 2021, although I foresaw a high probability of a fall, I did not clear all of my positions. At that time, I still maintained a half position, and continued to increase my position over the next two years. My investment philosophy has fundamentally changed from 2015, and I don't care much about the ups and downs of **, but pay more attention to the long-term holding of promising industries and excellent companies. Don't care too much.
Three or five years of profit and loss, and become more concerned about the development of the industry and the company in ten or twenty years.
From a medium- and long-term investor who regards the cost of holding a position as the first place, he has gradually become a long-term investor who pays the most attention to the number of positions. To use a popular analogy, before 2015, my first priority was the holding cost of Moutai**, and after 2021, I paid the most attention to the number of Moutai** I held. Moutai's holding cost is placed in second place.
It's not that the holding cost is not important, but when we are faced with a variety that is almost destined to continue in the future, we will find that how much to hold it is the most important, and the holding cost takes a back seat. For example, Yangtze River Power has been hitting new highs for decades and has been paying dividends.
If we bought 10,000 shares at 10 yuan, and never increased our position since then, strictly controlled the cost of holding shares, and held it to this day without dividend, we probably earned 140,000 yuan. The holding yield is more than 140%.
If we buy 10,000 shares at 10 yuan, 14 yuan, 16 yuan, and 18 yuan respectively, regardless of the cost, then our holding cost is nearly 15 yuan. The holding yield is less than 90%, but we actually made 400,000 yuan.
That's why I've been increasing my position in the Consumer Sector Index in recent years. In such an industry that will rise almost 100% in the future, the investment in it must be the more you buy, the better, and the heavier the better. It is very difficult to sell high and buy low, but there is no technical content in increasing positions when you have spare money.
The key is that we must have optimistic investment beliefs, believe in the fortune of the country, and believe that the consumer industry will be thriving for a long time, so that we will find that every time it is a low point, we will dare to continue to increase our positions. Otherwise, even if the gold is placed in front of our eyes, we will not dare to pick it up for fear that it will be poisonous.