(Report produced by Author: Zhongtai**, Zeng Biao, Zhao Yupeng).
Deeply cultivated in the photovoltaic industry, TOPCON has a world-leading layout. The full name of the company is JinkoSolar Co., Ltd., formerly known as Jiangxi JinkoSolar, which was established in December 2006, and the indirect controlling shares of JinkoSolar Holdings*** were listed on the New York Stock Exchange in 2010. In 2022, the company was successfully listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board of the Shanghai Stock Exchange. After 17 years of development, the company has grown into one of the leaders in the global photovoltaic industry, forming a vertically integrated development layout of silicon wafers, cells and modules, and is also one of the earliest enterprises in China to expand the production capacity of TOPCON cells on a large scale, leading the technological development of the industry.
The company's cumulative module shipments ranked first in the world, and n-type shipments ranked first in the world. During the period from 2016 to 2019, the company ranked first in the world in terms of PV module shipments for 4 consecutive years, and maintained the top five in global PV module shipments from 2020 to 2022, and in 2022, the company achieved module shipments of 4433GW, the second largest in the world, and the first module manufacturer in the world to ship more than 10GW of N-type modules. In 2023, the company is expected to ship 70-75GW of modules, and by the end of December 2023, the cumulative global module shipments will exceed 210GW, further consolidating its leading position.
The vertical integration layout continues to advance. The company adheres to the integrated development strategy, deploys silicon wafers, cells, modules, and auxiliary materials, and continues to expand its production capacity. In addition to the continuous expansion of domestic production capacity, the company continues to promote the expansion plan of 8GW cell and 8GW module projects in Vietnam and 1GW module projects in the United States. It is estimated that by the end of 2023, the annualized effective production capacity of wafers, cells and modules will reach 85, 90 and 110GW respectively, and the integration rate will continue to increase, and nearly 75% of the cell production capacity is the leading TOPCon production capacity, matching the high-quality integrated production capacity.
The company's shareholding structure is stable. The controlling shareholder of the company is JinkoSolar Investment Co., Ltd., and its indirect controlling shareholder is JinkoSolar Holdings, which is a U.S.-listed company JKS; After penetration, the actual controllers of the company are Li Xiande, Chen Kangping and Li Xianhua, of which Li Xiande and Li Xianhua are brothers, and Chen Kangping is the brother of Li Xiande's spouse. Li Xiande, Chen Kangping and Li Xianhua have signed the "Concerted Action Agreement", agreeing that all parties will maintain consistent action when exercising voting rights on the shares of the issuer directly or indirectly held, and if they are still unable to reach an agreement after full consultation between the parties, Li Xiande's opinion shall prevail, and the three have a concerted action relationship.
The company's revenue and net profit grew rapidly. The company has benefited from the rapid growth of photovoltaic demand, and the sales scale has continued to expand, with a compound growth rate of 35 percent from 2018 to 20225%；2023Q1-Q3 The company achieved an operating income of 8510 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 613%;In terms of profit, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2020 declined, mainly due to the impact of the epidemic, the rapid development of the global new crown epidemic, the continuous soaring freight rate**, and the sharp fluctuation of the company's logistics costs, which had a significant impact on the company's operating performance. In 2021 and beyond, the company's net profit attributable to the parent company will achieve sustained and rapid growth. According to the 2023 annual performance forecast released by the company, the company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 72 in 20235-79.500 million yuan, an increase of 147%-171% year-on-year.
The expense ratio continued to decrease, and profitability improved significantly. The company's expense ratio for the period 2019-2023Q3 increased from 139% down to 57%, a decrease of 72pcts, mainly due to the continuous increase in the company's module sales scale and significant increase in revenue, which in turn diluted the expenses during the period, with the sales expense ratio declining most significantly in 2020; After the company's listing in 2022, the financial expense ratio improved significantly; In terms of profitability, due to the impact of the epidemic in 2019, the gross profit margin of sales in 2019-2022 increased from 200% fell to 104%, In the first three quarters of 2023, the company's profitability improved, and the gross sales margin increased from 105% to 158%。
2.1 The global demand for energy substitution is strong, and photovoltaics will benefit significantly
Global carbon neutrality is the general trend of new energy development. Many countries around the world have put forward the climate goal of "zero carbon" or "carbon neutrality", and the development of renewable energy represented by photovoltaic has become a global consensus, and the cost of electricity of photovoltaic power generation is more competitive, which will benefit significantly in the future. With around 500GW of module installations in 2024, BNEF ** is set to rise on the rise, driven by the continued decline in PV costs and the global energy transition.
2.2 The advantages of n-type technology are significant, and the penetration rate is increasing rapidly
The advantages of TOPCON products are significant. The conversion efficiency and power of N-type modules are significantly higher than those of P-type, and the efficiency of mainstream PERC cells 7247 and TOPCon cells is 23, respectively3% and 247%, the module power of 182mm72 cell version is 560W and 590W respectively; In addition, according to Jinko's N-type TOPCon module products, N-type TOPCon modules have better temperature coefficients, lower attenuation rates (including light-induced attenuation and photothermal-induced attenuation), higher double-sided gain, and better low-light performance.
N-type modules have the advantage of power generation. The n-type module in the same version has a higher peak power and therefore more power generation with the same amount of light. According to JinkoSolar's 70MW PV demonstration project in Northwest China in July 2023, the daily power generation and power generation per watt of N-type modules are higher than those of P-type modules, and the empirical results show that the N-type module products of the same version have 502% power generation advantage.
TOPCon is the first to strike a balance between cost and efficiency in n-type technology. N-type modules can greatly reduce the initial investment cost of the project, save the use area of the power station, and the LCOE is also lower, and the project using n-type modules has a better return on investment. Taking the 120MW project in Gonghe Tara Beach in Qinghai as an example, the LCOE of N-type modules is 02955 kWh, while the LCOE of p-type modules is 0$3 or more; In terms of IRR, the IRR for N-type components is 138%, compared to 12About 7%, so the n-type TOPCon module is the first to achieve a balance between cost and efficiency, and is more cost-effective.
The recognition of n-type products in downstream bidding has increased rapidly. According to the recent module tenders, the market demand for n-type modules continues to increase. Judging from several recent projects with large bidding scales, in September 2023, Huadian Group 8Bids for 95GW of modules were opened for centralized procurement, with N-type accounting for about 83%; In October 2023, China Datang Group opened the bid for the centralized procurement of 5GW photovoltaic modules in 2023-2024, with N-type accounting for 100%. In December 2023, PowerChina announced that N-type modules accounted for 71% of the 42GW module centralized procurement tender4%。According to Trendforce's statistics, the proportion of N-type modules in module bidding in 2023 is rising, and according to the production capacity and bidding details, TopCon has become the mainstream among N-type, reflecting the market's recognition of TopCon products.
The market share of TOPCon products will increase rapidly. N-type cells, represented by TOPCon, HJT, and IBC, have higher conversion efficiency and are gradually replacing mainstream PERC cells as the next generation of cell technology. According to Infolink**In 2023, the proportion of TOPCon cells will reach 29%, and in 2024, the proportion of TOPCon cells is expected to exceed 60%, and the proportion will continue to increase, and N-type TOPCon products will become the mainstream of the market in the future.
3.1 TOPCON is the leader of mass production, and the technical advantages are expected to lead the industry
The company leads the development of n-type cell technology in the industry. In 2019, the company began to build a mass production line for N-type TOPCon cells, making it the first company in the industry to deploy N-type TOPCon cells and modules. In November 2021, the company launched the Tiger Neo series of high-end module products with N-type TOPCon cell technology, which combines the characteristics of high power, high efficiency, high reliability and low attenuation, and has been widely recognized by the market. In terms of production progress, the company has established a number of TOPCon cell factories with a scale of 8GW and above in 2022, making it the first enterprise to achieve large-scale mass production, and continues to expand production capacity, far ahead of other PV companies.
Continue to expand production capacity and consolidate its leading position. The company continues to expand the scale of production and expand the integrated production capacity. By the end of 2023, the production capacity of TOPCon cells has reached 68GW, and the planned cell production capacity has exceeded 93GW, and in 2023, it will expand multiple GW-level high-efficiency cell and high-efficiency cell module production lines, increasing market share and continuing to consolidate its leading position in the market through technological and production advantages.
Scientific research has made remarkable achievements, and innovation leads the times. The company's scientific research projects continue to advance, and many scientific research achievements are leading in the world. As of 2023H1, the company has applied for a total of 2,964 patents, and the number of patents obtained has reached 1,702, including 409 invention patents. It ranked second in the "Global Solar Cell Patent Rankings" for the period from May 1, 2013 to April 30, 2023 according to IPRDAILY. In January 2024, the company granted the right to use some of the N-type TOPCon related patents to one of the top 10 photovoltaic companies in the world at a reasonable license fee, reflecting the company's technological strength and innovation capabilities in the field of TOPCON, which not only promoted the company's technological progress, but also injected new impetus into the sustainable development of the industry.
The n-type module is further optimized, and the conversion efficiency is continuously improved. In November 2023, TÜV SÜD certified the company's N-type TOPCon large-area PV modules with a maximum conversion efficiency of 2476%, which has set a new record for the highest efficiency of modules in the world that has been certified by a third-party authority so far; The company has also made an important breakthrough in the research and development of perovskite tandem cells based on n-type TOPCon, and its conversion efficiency has reached 3233%, which greatly improves the conversion efficiency level of similar tandem batteries; The company announced that its 182 N type TOPCon cells have been tested by the National Photovoltaic Industry Metrology and Testing Center with an efficiency of 2689%, regaining the efficiency crown of large-area crystalline silicon cells. At the end of 2023, the company's R&D data has made major breakthroughs one after another, which is not only the implementation of the innovation achievements of the n-type technology leader, but also points out the direction for the current n-type technology upgrade of the entire photovoltaic industry.
The main force of n-type shipments, leading the photovoltaic industry. As an industry leader in N-type TOPCon technology, the company has obvious advantages over its peers in terms of product efficiency and cost. According to the 2023 n-type module bidding list compiled by the International Energy Network, there will be 92 in 2023The bidding project of 25GW N-type modules was awarded, and 49 companies won the bid, and the number of bids for the company's N-type modules reached 119GW, ranking first in the industry, and far ahead of other leading manufacturers.
The products are well recognized, and the reliability and stability are industry-leading. PV Evolution Labs (PVEL) is a world-recognized leader in PV module testing. The reliability of PV modules is evaluated annually through rigorous tests that exceed IEC certification standards, which is an important basis for measuring the long-term reliability and performance performance of PV modules in the industry. From 2016 to 2023, the company has won the honor of the best performer in the PVEL PV Module Reliability Scorecard, reflecting the reliability and stability of the company's products.
3.2 Global production capacity layout, back to the road of king
The company has a complete overseas layout and leading overseas integrated production capacity. The company actively promotes the globalization of production and sales, and has set up overseas production bases in Malaysia, the United States and Vietnam, with more than 14 overseas factories and overseas sales subsidiaries in more than 10 countries around the world to achieve global operation. By the end of 2023, the company expects to achieve a production capacity of 12GW, 8GW and 8GW in Vietnam. The company was built in 2019 in Florida, USAThe production capacity of 4GW of cell modules is currently planned to be dismantled and expanded to 1GW of module capacity.
The company's modules are harvested globally, and overseas revenue accounts for a high proportion. The company has set up overseas sales subsidiaries in more than 10 countries around the world to improve its global layout. The company's overseas business is concentrated in the United States, Europe, Japan, South Korea, Southeast Asia, etc., and its products have been sold to more than 160 countries and regions around the world. From 2019 to 2022, the proportion of overseas revenue has increased, and after 2022, the company's overseas revenue will account for more than 40%, and overseas markets, especially in Europe and the United States, have better products** and profitability.
The company's annual shipments are expected to return to the world's first. The company leveraged its leading advantages in global layout, n-type technology and integrated production capacity, and achieved module shipments of 522GW, temporarily ranking first in the world, the company is expected to ship 23GW in the fourth quarter of 2023, and is expected to achieve the annual shipment target of 70GW-75GW; As of January 2024, the company's cumulative global shipments of photovoltaic modules have exceeded 210GW, and it is expected to return to the world's first position.
The competition in the industry is fierce, and the integrated production capacity has more advantages. The integrated capacity allocation has a better synergistic effect, reduces transportation costs and industrial chain fluctuations, has better profitability, and has a stronger ability to resist changes in the industrial chain. According to Solarzoom's data, the gross profit margin of wafer + cell + module integration is higher than that of a single module for most of the time. In the future, the company will continue to optimize the integrated structure, improve the production capacity ratio of TOPCon cells, and consolidate the core competitiveness of the company in the fierce competition for capacity expansion.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not represent any investment advice from us. To use the information, please refer to the original report. ）
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