With the passage of time, the Russia-Ukraine conflict is about to reach another anniversary. In this long war, NATO's economic and military support has shown signs of weakening, Ukraine's population is facing depletion, and Russia's ** stocks are also showing signs of urgency. Whichever side wins on the front lines will pay far more than the benefits. From Moscow's point of view, "small motorcycles" from Iran and shells and missiles from North Korea have become an important part of maintaining the "special military operation". Against this backdrop, North Korea seems to have made another big move.
According to a report from the South Korean side, at 9 a.m. on February 14, two days before the North Korean Festival commemorating the birthday of leader Kim Chong-il, the North Korean army launched several cruise missiles into the eastern sea, which eventually fell into the waters northeast of Wonshan. The ROK military is on high alert and works closely with the US team to closely monitor North Korea's movements.
According to the South Korean military, this is the fifth cruise missile launch by North Korea since the beginning of 2024. For example, on January 24, the DPRK military launched several new "Rocket-3-31" strategic cruise missiles around the western waters of Pyongyang. Four days later, two more missiles of the same type were fired around Sinpo City near South Hammjin Province. On 30 January, another type of cruise missile, the Arrow-2, was launched into the waters west of the DPRK. On 2 February, the DPRK military conducted a test of the "super-large warhead" carried by the cruise missile in the western seas.
Some analysts have pointed out that the main purpose of the DPRK military's intensive test firing of cruise missiles is to strengthen the "nuclear warhead carrying capability" of such missiles, which poses a major threat to South Korea.
However, Zhang Yong-geun, head of the Missile Research Center of the South Korean Institute of Strategic Studies, believes that the real purpose of North Korea's high-density missile test launch is not just to test, but to sell to Russia. Therefore, they conducted a demonstration of the blow and announced ** for external propaganda in order to attract the attention of Russia and conclude a "big deal" in the military industry.
In addition to military cooperation, non-governmental contacts between Russia and the DPRK have also deepened since the Kim-Pu meeting. About 300 to 400 North Koreans got off at a train station between Vladivostok and Kazan in Russia, according to Yonhap News Agency, citing Cho Han-fan, a senior researcher at South Korea's state think tank. Although they carried luggage, they were likely to be laborers rather than tourists, and they were probably the first North Korean laborers to send to Russia, with more to come.
North Korea has been subject to United Nations sanctions for many years, and it is difficult to earn foreign exchange through labor dispatch. In a political environment where Russia and North Korea have close ties and North Korea's energy needs are high, it is not surprising that North Korea sends workers to Russia. However, South Korea's Unification Ministry said that North Korea's dispatch of workers violated UN Security Council resolutions, and South Korea** is closely monitoring its "implementation".
Judging from this series of developments, the deepening of cooperation between the two Koreas after the Kim-Pu meeting shows that the two countries have a common language in countering US pressure. The two sides also show a certain complementarity in terms of strategic interests, with North Korea providing military production capacity and Russia providing technical support.
However, the U.S. military moves toward North Korea are tense, and some U.S. experts are even eager to take action, hoping to indirectly pressure North Korea by sanctioning China.
Joshua Stanton, a prominent lawyer who helped draft the 2016 Sanctions and Policy Enforcement Act, said China fears "political turmoil caused by a prolonged recession," which gives the U.S. more "leverage" to exert more pressure on China, according to the U.S. on Feb. 15. Therefore, Stanton suggested that Biden should put pressure on China and designate North Korean labor factories in China, and strengthen the funding scrutiny of local Chinese banks to prevent them from providing services to the North Korean economy.
Anthony Ruggiero, a senior fellow at the American Association for the Defense of Democraties, also said that Biden's current North Korean sanctions are "weak and ineffective" and that the United States should turn its attention to Russian and Chinese banks, entities and individuals, which are helping North Korea generate revenue.
Ken Goss, a senior analyst at the US Center for Naval Studies, said that the United States could have increased pressure on China to make China realize the cost of supporting North Korea, but doing so would be digging its own grave, because China would think that US sanctions are actively harming China's interests, which would lead China to adopt a more negative attitude toward the North Korean issue, and might even make the situation worse.
Gary Summer, the Obama-era White House arms control coordinator, agrees that sanctions against Chinese entities could lead to less cooperation in China's diplomatic efforts.
From these points of view, we can clearly see the pathology of the political situation in the United States. Although reducing the threat of North Korea is the fundamental goal of the national interests of the United States, sanctions are only one of the means. However, if an attempt is made to hit the DPRK by punishing China, then China will certainly not sit idly by, and will even have a strong **. While this approach is in line with the "political correctness" of the United States against China, it runs counter to the national interests of the United States at the geopolitical level. Against the backdrop of a global strategic contraction and 2024**, escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula will undoubtedly bring more trouble to the DPJ.
Behind this series of developments, can we see a solution to the North Korean problem?