Boosted by policy and weather, corn **continues**, what is the trend before the end of the month?
After the Chinese New Year, corn ** seems to be improving, although the increase is not large, but it has lasted for a few days, for farmers who have not yet sold grain, this is undoubtedly a "good start"! What will the grain be like at the end of the month? This article will provide a brief analysis.
After the Spring Festival, corn continued to rise, and the reason for its rise was that in addition to the impact of the New Year's atmosphere, corn trading has not completely recovered, as well as the joint effect of policy and climate, which is also an important reason for the rise in corn prices.
In terms of policy, under the current situation of agricultural production, it is of great significance to ensure the stability of grain and alleviate the "difficulty in selling grain" of farmers, so as to stimulate the enthusiasm of farmers for growing grain. From a policy perspective, this is a positive sign:
First, at noon on the 22nd, it was reported that the General Office issued an "Opinions on Increasing the Intensity of Grain Commercial Reserves for Key State-owned Grain and Oil Enterprises", calling on major state-owned grain and oil enterprises to take the initiative to enter the market for grain sales and other issues, and gave some of their own views. It can be seen from this that the current work of ensuring spring ploughing is a problem that needs to be solved urgently.
Second, with the increase in reserves at the beginning of the year, China Grain Reserves Jilin Branch announced a new reserve point on the evening of the 20th, and it is expected that other provinces and cities will also release new reserve plans. So far, officials have only announced the location of the acquisition, and no increase in production has been announced, but the move is clear before the spring planting begins.
Third, China Grain Storage was originally scheduled to be tendered for imported corn in the form of a tender on the 21st, but then the bid was cancelled, although the reason for this is not clear, but Xinnong Ming said that in order to avoid the concentration of domestic grain sales, and in order to avoid nationwide sales, this may be a potential reason for this tender.
In addition to the frequent blowing of the policy "spring breeze", climatic factors such as rain, snow, and low temperatures in major provinces have also become "firewood" to promote high grain prices.
With the decrease in temperature, the enthusiasm for grain sales in the Northeast has decreased, and some deep processing and ** merchants have also begun a small amount of price increases, which has promoted the rise of corn ** around. After the Spring Festival, the purchase price of corn fluctuates between 20-30 across the country.
Constrained by factors such as rainfall, cold waves, and snowfall, peasants in North China are not enthusiastic about selling grain, and market transactions are relatively deserted. Due to the current domestic deep processing enterprises to arrive in a small number, can not fully meet the daily production needs, so to some corn to make a certain supplement, therefore, some deep processing enterprises in order to promote the rise, will generally increase the purchase price by 20-40 yuan tons, but basically there is no intention to buy. Merchants still lack enough confidence in the future, there is no willingness to raise prices, most of the regional supply is sufficient, and the purchase price of individual markets is slightly **10-20 yuan ton.
In the near term, both positive and negative factors remain.
On the positive side, because the bottom farmers in Northeast China and North China still have the psychology of hoarding goods, coupled with the slow rise in temperature, the market supply is still relatively tight; From next week, feed companies may gradually replenish their inventories, and the inventory of deep processing enterprises remains at a low level, and there is still support.
The bad news is that feed companies still have a lot of imported corn as **, in addition, due to the recent decline in international cereals, the current theoretical arrival tariff has reached 2,000 yuan per ton. At the same time, due to the sluggish demand in the market, it is difficult for feed companies to increase their enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials.
From a regional point of view, ** shows that by the end of the month, the temperature in the northeast will continue to maintain a slower upward trend, on the one hand, it will have a certain impact on the traffic and traffic, on the other hand, because the grassroots farmers are more resistant to price reductions, therefore, the current supply in the market is not much, and the downstream grain enterprises maintain the strategy of buying on demand.
Due to the rain and snow in the early stage of North China, it is difficult to rebound in the recent transactions, and the supply is still relatively tight, therefore, the major grain companies may continue to increase prices, but most businesses have no willingness to increase prices, so the corn in North China will be relatively stable before the end of this month, and the ** in individual regions may have an increase of 20-30.
All in all, with the continuous introduction of the country, coupled with the slow rise in local temperatures, ordinary farmers do not have much willingness to sell grain, and on the demand side, downstream feed companies have begun to replenish inventory, and deep processing companies also have corresponding inventory, therefore, the short-term supply crunch will cause some support for corn.