In the field of new energy, there are new changes.
According to the latest annual report, BYD's annual sales will exceed 3 million units in 2023 and achieve a net profit of about 30 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 70%.
In terms of Huawei's intelligent driving, Thalys, Changan and other models are also selling well, and Xiaomi cars are also expected to usher in a sudden rise in 2024.
While the sales of new energy vehicles are good, we find that the performance of core auto leaders such as CATL, Tuopu Group, and Sanhua Intelligent Control is not satisfactory.
For this performance of the market, there are two main influencing factors:
One is the concern about penetrationIn 2023, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China will exceed 30%, and the growth rate is very fast. However, the penetration rate of charging piles and other supporting facilities has increased very slowly, and now the penetration rate of 30% mainly depends on the first and second lines that have been arranged and the sinking charging convenience market, if you want to continue to improve the penetration rate, it is difficult to raise the supporting equipment.
Tesla's latest earnings report was significantly lower than expected, mainly due to concerns about penetration, which eroded profits due to early price cuts.
One is the power concernWith the large increase in sales of new energy vehicles, the increase in the base has increased the demand for charging, and the electricity is used at any time, which leads to a more serious peak of supply and demand. And under the goal of carbon neutrality, it is not possible to invest in upstream coal power supply casually.
In order to solve the contradiction of electricity, enhance the supply of green electricity and increase energy storage equipment, it can neutralize the peak shift between the supply side and demand.
In particular, in terms of the supply of green electricity, the goal of carbon neutrality is very clear, and the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption in China will reach about 20% by 2025, and will continue to increase to about 25% by 2030.
The core of enhancing the supply of green electricity lies in photovoltaic and wind power, which is also the most mature and widely used green power method.
The current installed capacity of photovoltaic is not bad, but it is still necessary to pay close attention to the state of the industry's prosperity, especially the industrial chain of Tongwei Co., Ltd., LONGi, Trina Solar, and Aiko Co., Ltd.
In terms of wind power, it is currently warmer than photovoltaics.
Judging from the data, in the first three quarters of 2023, the new installed capacity of wind power in the country will be 3348GW, a year-on-year increase of 7401%, the installed speed is not weak.
On October 19, 2023, the "Announcement on the Transfer of Additional Subsidy Funds for the First Renewable Energy Electricity Price in 2023" was released, and the electricity price subsidy for wind power increased by 1 compared with 202214 times, the subsidy for wind power has been strengthened again.
Under the heat of the wind power industry, Taisheng Wind Energy, as a core small leader, has more obvious advantages.
So, what is the core business of Taisheng Wind Energy?
The wind power industry chain is also relatively complex, with upstream accessories such as towers, blades, spindles, generators, etc., and midstream manufacturing is mainly wind turbine companies such as Mingyang Intelligent and Goldwind Technology; Downstream are the power operators.
Taisheng Wind Energy is mainly used for wind power towers, that is, the large round pillars we often see, and its value in wind power accessories is very large, second only to wind power blades, accounting for nearly 24%.
As a small leader of wind power towers, Taisheng Wind Energy's performance is also not bad, 2020 is the wind power rush to install the tide, after 2020, the company's performance ushered in a continuous state of repair, in the first three quarters of 2023, the company achieved a net profit margin of 23.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 418%。
The growth of demand for wind power towers is due to the rapid growth rate of wind power installations, but the incremental space of towers does not only rely on the growth of the industry.
So, where is the point of the core increment of the tower?
The core increment of the tower still relies on the technological progress of wind power to reduce costs and increase efficiency.
First, the fan is larger.
Large-scale wind turbines are also an important means to reduce costs and increase efficiency of wind power, and high-power wind turbines bring higher costs and efficiency. According to the data, China's new wind power installed capacity is 5The proportion of high-power units above 0MW increased from 3 in 20190%, an increase of 39%。
The large-scale wind turbine requires large wind turbine blades, which in turn need a larger tower to support and bring incremental space.
Second, offshore wind power.
With the advancement of new technologies, the LCOE of offshore wind power has dropped very quickly.
From 2010 to 2020, the global LCOE of offshore wind power increased from 0$162 kWh slipped to 0084 USD kWh, which also greatly improves the cost performance of sea wind power generation. As a result, in recent years, the installed capacity growth rate of offshore wind is much higher than that of onshore wind power.
With the release of the demand side and the stimulation side, it is expected that China's installed wind power capacity will reach 75GW and 90GW from 2024 to 2025, with an installed capacity growth rate of 23% and 20%. However, the installed capacity of sea breeze can reach 10GW and 18GW, with a growth rate of 70% and 90%.
The installed capacity of offshore wind power needs to face the situation of deep water, which requires a larger tower to support, bringing geometric incremental space, as can be seen from several key projects recently disclosed, the amount of sea wind on the tower is almost doubled.
As a small leader of the tower, Taisheng Wind Energy has rivals such as Daikin Heavy Industries, Tianshun Wind Energy, Haili Wind Power, etc., and compared with its competitors, the company's size is relatively smaller.
So, what is the advantage of Taisheng Wind Energy over its competitors?
1. The company's business structure is more focused on sea breeze.
Daikin Heavy Industries and Tianshun Wind Energy mainly have a high proportion of onshore wind power, while Taisheng Wind Energy has long deployed sea wind, and the company's sea wind business revenue will account for about 50% in 2021, which will fully benefit from the high growth rate of wind power oceanization.
2. The company's export business accounts for a high proportion.
Taisheng Wind Energy also accounts for a high proportion of export business, and the company is the company with the highest tower export in 2022. Customers include Vestas, Gamesa, Gewind, Goldwind, CGN, etc. In 2022, the company's export business revenue accounted for more than 50%, and the growth was very fast.
The gross profit margin of the export business is much higher than that of the domestic business, which has led to the improvement of the company's overall gross profit margin, and the company's overall gross profit margin has reached 19 in the first three quarters of 202351%, an increase of 1 year-on-year5 percentage points, it is also an enterprise with a very high gross profit margin in the industry. It also shows the enhancement of the company's profitability.
And as we all know, the transportation cost of the tower is the key to restricting the company's profits. The company's Yangzhou base has a designed annual production capacity of about 250,000 tons, specializing in creating large-diameter, high-end tower products, which are very suitable for export positioning.
3. The company's R&D advantages are obvious.
Although the tower looks simple, it also has a certain amount of technology, especially in terms of sea breeze and export, which have higher technical requirements.
Taisheng Wind Energy's R&D investment is far ahead of competitors such as Tianneng Heavy Industry and Daikin Heavy Industries, with a compound annual growth rate of 25% from 2019 to 2022, continuously enhancing product technical barriers and maintaining a leading edge in high-end products.
It is with such an advantage that the company's orders in hand will be as high as 41 at the end of the third quarter of 2023900 million, sea breeze and overseas orders accounted for a relatively high percentage. And at the end of December 2023, there were 51 institutions holding it.
Therefore, driven by the technology of reducing costs and increasing efficiency of wind power, the tower, as the core accessory of wind power, has a very rapid incremental release spaceAs a small leader with outstanding business layout, Taisheng Wind Energy has more obvious advantages in performance flexibility.
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**: Flying Whale Investment Research