Over the weekend, everyone was talking about restricting securities lending and refinancing, and it can be seen that they have relatively high expectations.
But it's not an afterthought, and I'm a little guilty of muttering about it.
Of course, it is easy to limit shorting, but it is still a bit difficult to turn from a decline to a rise.
Sometimes I also wonder, is it really a monster to go short? Is it also an important force to balance the market and reflect the market?
Of course, the violation of restricted shares is hateful, but why do major shareholders waste half a day of effort to go public, but they always want to**?
If the company itself is worth the investment, isn't it the best choice for the management to buy back and write off? Why do you need rigid constraints? Can twisted melons be sweet?
Today, the market is once again in the distortion of value and growth, the Shanghai Index and the Chinese word head are difficult to resist, entrepreneurship, science and technology innovation are a failure, or the script of rising indexes and losing accounts.
This can't help but make people sigh, although the Shanghai Composite Index is struggling around 2900 points, where are the major industry indices, that is, those things that we bought in our accounts, back to now?
All refers to consumption (000990), mainly including food and beverage and household appliances, the holy grail of A stock price investors, the representative of DCF perpetual cash flow, and the hotbed of the birth of two 100 billion ** managers, almost never missed the previous bull market.
If the consumer sector is not cleared, or consumer stocks do not improve, there is a high probability that it will be difficult to describe a bull market.
The current index point has returned to the relative low point of March 2020, three years ago, just after the outbreak of COVID-19, and the Shanghai Composite Index was at 2700 during the same period, which is in line with our experience.
All-index pharmaceutical (000091), the favorite industry of public offering active equity in 2023Q4, accounting for 1485%, an increase of 145%。
The aging population in the domestic market guarantees demand, which is theoretically the most certain industry at present, and it used to be a long slope and thick snow.
However, the current pharmaceutical FF+ American ** year of voting chips has brought "sandwich cake pressure", so the macro uncertainty of medicine is comparable to that of China General Internet a few years ago, and this is also the reason for the endless ups and downs.
At present, the index point has returned to August 2019, and the big beta of COVID-19 has all been vomited back, and the Shanghai Composite Index has reached 2,700 points in the same period.
CSI New Energy (000941), once high growth, high prosperity and a certain level of technology, the culmination of meso-industry comparison (industry rotation), and the milestone of seller's performance art (dismantling cars, calculating the penetration rate after decades).
Nowadays, the valuation overdraft is too serious, the players in the industry are crazy involution, the competition pattern has deteriorated, and the stock price has fallen painfully.
So it's not so much about enjoying the valuations of growth stocks as it is about cyclical stocks with excess capacity.
Referring to the tragic supply-side clearance of old energy 10 years ago, there is a bit of "mistaking the cycle for growth, burying a handful in the old hill", I dare not say that the hard days are over, and I dare not think about it.
At present, the index point has fallen to July 2020, and the craziest wave in 21 years has returned, and the Shanghai Composite Index has been at 3300 in the same period, well, it seems that it can continue to release risks.
CSI TMT (000998), a large number of semiconductors, electronics and other products are indirectly trapped.
What does this plate say? Although it is nominally a technology stock, we don't know how much high-tech content there really is, and then the attribute of high R&D investment determines the financing dividend.
Then the stock price fluctuates greatly, and the position of the cycle is difficult to judge, and it is often impossible to say the bottom and the top, and the investment experience is extremely poor and the investment difficulty is high.
Now the whole country is looking forward to CATL and BYD in the field of electronics or computers, but they don't know when they will be able to cash in.
I hope I don't let down the high valuation given by the secondary market.
The TMT index is currently falling back to the point before the start of the big ** in February 2019, and the Shanghai Composite Index - 2,700 points in the same period.
Real estate 932076 is the beneficiary of the last cycle, but it is not like coal that has a second spring, but it is more and more a "value trap".
Today, the Hong Kong court issued a winding-up order to China Evergrande, which is quite embarrassing.
In the past, many people thought that real estate was experiencing supply clearance, and the future would wait for the second round of outbreak comparable to high-end liquor, but the difference is that the net profit margin of liquor in the worst year of 2013 was quite high.
Even in 2017, when the real estate boom was very good, the net profit margin of these leading real estate companies was only so.
Growth is not as good as consumption, dividend yield is not high enough, and the tragedy cannot be avoided.
But one thing to say, the performance of the real estate sector this year is okay, at least it is still a positive return, but this positive return is a drop in the bucket for the index over the years.
All index real estate has fallen back to 2009 - the stage before the big bear market, when the Shanghai Composite Index was 2100 points.
CSI Coal (399998), the first generation of growth stocks, is one of the most powerful sectors in the first decade of the 21st century.
The $4 trillion plan gave birth to the "infrastructure madness", and of course, it also brought the final carnival to coal.
After the coal sector experienced a tragic liquidation, the leading stocks China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, Yankuang Energy in 2015 once struggled near the profit and loss line, except for the year with the market beta had a round of "reflection", the past 10 years overall is more down and less up.
After 10 years of being disliked by institutions and rubbing shoulders with institutions, it will finally return in 2021.
At present, the point of the coal index has risen to the high level of June 2015, and the Shanghai index has reached 4,500 points in the same period.
After 3 consecutive years of rising coal, the absolute PE of the faucet is 10 times, I dare not say that it is expensive, but is it really cheap? I really don't know.
Based on the above several **heavy positions or ** sectors with a good foundation, I mainly want to say one thing-At present, the account experience of the mainstream basic people should be closest to the Shanghai Composite Index at 2700 points
Although the Shanghai Index is an indicator used by each of us to judge A-shares, after all, there are so many A-share companies, and there have been many changes over the years
The Shanghai Composite Index has not risen for 10 years, which does not mean that the partial stocks have not risen; Just because the Shanghai Composite Index doesn't fall doesn't mean your account won't lose.
In 2022, I chatted with an online car-hailing master, who had been working in the back-office position of a branch of a large state-owned bank for almost 20 years, and bought nearly 100 of them.
Now, the stock price has doubled, but I don't know if I can hold it.
In the past few years, the partial stock ** has indeed been beaten, but if you go to Snowball (this is talking about the discussion community, not the Snowball option) or Brainstorming to take a look, you will find that the investors there are simply not too happy.
Their favorite stocks, two barrels of oil, state-owned banks, highways, hydropower and even some coal stocks, are all companies that have little room for storytelling, but the annual dividends are in hand, whether it is the return of market style or value discovery, anyway, they are making money now.
In recent years, A-shares have changed, there are more companies, and the industrial structure has also been enriched.
Of course, it is uncomfortable to go short, but it is really useless to complain, the important thing is to adapt to the rules of the game, some people are beaten, some people eat meat, this is the normal state of the market.
Now that your account has "risen" to a few thousand points, you can also deduct it in the comment area.