Starting on February 11, Indonesia** entered a quiet period, and the 75-day election campaign came to an end, waiting for the arrival of polling day on the 14th. Who will succeed Jokowi, who has been in power for ten years, will become the next **, which has attracted the attention of the international community.
At the moment, all three candidates represent camps that claim to "win the first round", but everyone knows that it will not be easy to win the first round. **If you enter the second round, it will be more difficult to predict who will die.
Outside a polling station in Jakarta, Indonesia, on April 17, 2019, voters pay attention to a quick vote count. Hair.
Three-legged momentum.
Indonesia holds a ** election every five years, and the candidates of the president and deputy run in pairs. There are three candidates for Indonesia in 2024**.
The No. 1** candidate is the former Governor of the Jakarta Capital Region Anies, partnered with the General Chairman of the National Awakening Party, Mu Haimin. The 54-year-old is a former Indonesian education minister and holds a Ph.D. in political science from Northern Illinois University in the United States.
Anies comes from a scholarly family. In 2007, at the age of 37, he was elected president of the University of Parramadina, becoming the youngest university president in the country. During his tenure as Governor of Jakarta, Anies was praised for his response to the coronavirus pandemic and criticized for his lack of efforts to address other issues such as affordable housing, air pollution, traffic jams, and flooding.
Anies. The No. 2** candidate is the current Minister of Defense Prabowo, and his deputy is Jokowi's eldest son, Solo Mayor Gibran. The 72-year-old Prabowo, a retired lieutenant general who has twice lost to Jokowi, is the third time he has made a bid for the throne.
Prabowo (left) with Gibran.
Prabowo's grandfather was the founder of Bank Indonesia, his father was a cabinet member of the Sukarno and Suharto periods, and he himself was Suharto's second son-in-law. Prabowo's military career has been brilliant, but it has also left a disgraceful history. After losing the election in 2019, Prabowo chose to reconcile with Jokowi and was invited to join the cabinet.
Candidate No. 3** is the former Governor of Central Java, Ganjar, and his partner is Mafud. The 55-year-old Ganjar is a former member of parliament for the Indonesian Democratic Struggle Party (PDP) and has been strongly promoted by former Megawati.
Compared with the other two candidates, Ganjar is from a civilian background, but his resume is rich and complete, covering the legislative side and the ruling side. During his tenure at the helm of Central Java, he is considered to have established a good base of public opinion.
Worries about winning a round.
Of the three candidates, the oldest Prabowo is leading in a number of polls and has a higher voice.
However, after the last debate on the evening of February 4, data from social research institutions showed that Anies and Ganjar performed better, with 86% and 72% of netizens having positive impressions, respectively. In contrast, 48% of netizens expressed negative views and only 43% had positive impressions.
It also shows that, at least in terms of socialization, Prabowo is not completely in the driver's seat.
Gibran was still holding on to his pigtails. On February 5, Indonesia's election commission chairman and several members were accused of serious violations of the code of ethics, pointing the finger at Gibran.
The scene of the first debate in Indonesia in 2024.
Indonesia's constitution stipulates that the minimum age limit for running for election is 40 years old. Last year, Indonesia's Constitutional Court ruled that people under the age of 40, who had just turned 36, were exempt from the restriction if they were or had been local leaders. As a result, Anwar, the former chief official of the Indonesian Constitutional Court and Jokowi's brother-in-law, was found guilty of "serious violations" of the code of ethics and conduct and was eventually removed.
Although neither of these events will have an impact on Gibran's fait accompli or candidacy as a vice-candidate, the topic will undoubtedly raise concerns for Prabowo's victory.
According to Indonesia's relevant regulations, in order for a candidate to win a round, it is not enough to get more than 50% of the votes, but also to win at least 20% of the votes of more than half of Indonesia's provinces and regions. This is to avoid the concentration of votes in one area too much.
If no candidate matches, the election will go to a second round in June, where the two pairs with the highest number of votes will face off. According to Indonesia** analysis, Anies and Ganjar may join forces at that time, and the election situation will become more complicated.
Jokowi's attitude with young voters.
Jokowi is extremely popular in Indonesia, and his attitude is important to who can take over him.
A few months ago, Jokowi described a portrait of a **man in front of his supporters: "You can see it from his face and appearance. His face was wrinkled because he always thought of the people, and his hair turned white. ”
Ganjar, who showed himself as a white-haired person, was once regarded as the "white-haired man" in Jokowi's mouth. But as time went on, Indonesia** observed that he and Prabowo were "getting closer". On the one hand, Jokowi's eldest son, Gibran, became Prabowo's deputy ** candidate; On the other hand, Jokowi did not attend the party celebration of the Democratic Struggle Party, and his relationship with Megawati, the party chairman who pushed him back then, became very delicate.
Who exactly does Jokowi support? He said that for the good of the country, I support all candidates. In the case of Jokowi**'s plan to move the capital, Prabowo and Ganjar both said they would continue this policy, while Anies openly opposed it.
Jokowi. Who can succeed Jokowi will depend on the attitude of young voters. According to statistics, in Indonesia 2The younger generation between the ages of 20 and 35 accounts for nearly 60% of the 4.8 billion voters. To attract young voters, the three candidates pulled out all the stops.
The top three ticket warehouses in Indonesia are expected to be very competitive in Central Java. This is the stronghold of the Democratic Struggle Party, where Ganjar was at the helm of Central Java for 10 years. The city of Solo, Central Java, is Jokowi's hometown, and Gibran is the mayor of the city.