Tensions between France and Russia have continued to escalate in recent days, drawing global attention. Although the two sides have not officially declared war, a series of events show that the confrontation between the two countries has become more intense. However, given the nuclear forces possessed by each side, the confrontation could be a bluff for France, and at worst it could be suicidal.
Macron's close cooperation with Ukraine is undoubtedly the trigger for this crisis. Since 2022, France has provided billions of euros in military aid to Ukraine. On February 16 this year, the agreement signed between Macron and Zelensky will provide 3 billion euros in military aid to Ukraine. However, none of these decisions were discussed by the French National Assembly and are in direct violation of Article 53 of the French Constitution.
In addition, of the 50 billion euros in aid that the European Commission has decided to allocate to Ukraine, more than 8 billion euros will go to France. This move has undoubtedly further increased tensions between France and Russia.
French politicians Hubert Védrine and Jean-Pierre Schevenmente issued a joint statement on their blogs warning the French people that the February 16 agreement and the decision to potentially "Europeanize" France's nuclear deterrent could have catastrophic consequences. They stressed that European countries should weigh the consequences of such decisions, start a fundamental political debate, and submit it to parliament for discussion.
The Russians have accepted and fully understood Macron's message: he intends to put France's entire military arsenal at the service of the Ukrainians. This move undoubtedly puts France at risk, making it an ideal nuclear target in the eyes of Moscow. In the event of an escalation of the situation, Russia will not stop using tactical and even strategic nuclear ** against France.
When Macron announced his intention to extend nuclear deterrence to the entire European Union at the Munich Security Conference, he had already pushed France to the brink of danger. France, as a nuclear power, is undoubtedly a great threat in the eyes of Russia with its nuclear deterrent. However, France, on the other hand, is not able to protect its territory from the massive launch of "Sarmatia" or hypersonic "Zircon" and is not capable of retaliating.
The Russians, naturally, will destroy all the deterrence forces of France first. France's nuclear deterrent force is modest and consists of four nuclear submarines armed with M51 sea-to-surface strategic ballistic missiles and a strategic air force armed with "advanced" medium-range air-to-air missiles. These forces appear rather vulnerable in the face of Russian hypersonic missiles. Therefore, the Russian General Staff has no reason to panic: it has a striking force that is significantly superior to the French in combat capabilities.
Speaking on RTL TV recently, the Minister of the French Armed Forces, Sébastien Le Cornu, said that he was surprised by "Russia's increasingly aggressive behavior towards France." He cited about a hundred examples of Russia's aggressive behavior. However, the minister seems to have forgotten that France has also acted similarly against Russia in the past. Therefore, his surprise appears a little hypocritical.
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