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The property market ushered in a historic turning point? Wang Shi once again ** real estate prospects, or hit again.
Wang Shi, the founder of China's largest real estate company, has attracted the attention of many people for his judgment of the property market. The 20-year real estate boom has come to an end, and the real estate market is now undergoing unprecedented changes. In this case, Wang Shi is more meaningful for the future trend.
Wang Shi has twice correctly predicted the trend of this year. In 2007, he accurately predicted the real estate market, which convinced many investors and buyers. But in 2019, he had a thought-provoking sentence: "Young people, it is better to buy a house than to rent a house." ”
At that time, China's housing ** was still in a rising period, and many people did not agree. However, looking back, Wang Shi's view now seems more reasonable five years later. Now, we have seen the trend of **, and Wang Shi's re-prediction of the future development direction of the property market, or it is likely to be right.
Trends in the regulation of the property market.
In recent years, China's real estate industry has undergone profound changes, especially under the influence of factors such as accelerated urbanization and reduced household consumption, it has entered a long-term regulation and control process.
First of all, our country's housing** has continued to rise for nearly 20 years, but our country is undergoing an unprecedented urbanization on a scale and rate that is unprecedented. According to the Gazette of the People's Republic of China, by 2025, the urbanization level of China's urban residents has reached 652%。
This is also a sign that China's urbanization process has entered the second half, and the residential properties in many cities have increased by more than ten times, and the property market has been "overheated" in many cities. In this case, the demand for buying a house is also gradually declining.
Secondly, at present, the housing prices in many large cities have exceeded 10,000 yuan, and some large cities have even reached 5-10 w flat, which has exceeded many people's psychological expectations.
With the development of the economy and the improvement of people's quality of life, people's income is getting higher and higher, however, the housing is still beyond the growth rate of people's income, resulting in a high amount of housing is difficult for many families to accept, in the future, China's property market will face greater tests and pressures.
In addition, the current younger generation may have the option to buy a house, especially the 90s and 00 generation, they can get a house from their parents, and they can easily arrange their own housing. Therefore, the pressure on real estate will continue to increase.
Wang Shi looks forward to the real estate market.
Through the above analysis, we can see that the current real estate industry is facing unprecedented opportunities and challenges. In this case, Wang Shi, with his rich entrepreneurial spirit, has participated in many conferences and interviews in the Fortune world for many times, and has put forward many valuable insights and predictions for us.
First of all, Wang Shi put forward several major risks and problems faced by the current property market. One is that real estate developers are blindly scaling up with high debt. Such a high debt situation has caused many enterprises to fall into debt distress, and some real estate projects have been forced to suspend due to problems in the capital chain.
It will take three to five years to completely eliminate these problems. And this process, especially in the near term, will have some shocks to the housing market.
Secondly, Wang Shi said that this year and next year, China's property market will show a polarized trend, and companies with debt ratios of more than 100% or too large operations may go bankrupt or be restructured. This view is consistent with the views of many industry insiders, and it also shows that the domestic real estate market is in a process of "survival of the fittest", which is an inevitable process for any industry to mature.
Wang Shi's prophecy is not unfounded. He noticed that when the property market matures, the function of market laws becomes more and more significant. The market must be stable and develop healthily, and it must not be excessively inflated or borrowed.
At the same time, we have also noted that on February 5 next year, the Xinhua News Agency will release the first batch of "white lists", which is a good sign that the state attaches great importance to the housing issue and its efforts, especially to ensure delivery.
In addition, Wang Shi believes that measures such as "urban renewal" and "urban renewal" are aimed at stimulating people to buy real estate. Its purpose is to promote the rational investment of real estate enterprises and promote the healthy development of the real estate industry through the regulation and control of the real estate industry.
This approach is completely different from the bubble in Japan's real estate market. What we are walking at the cost of time and space, through a gradual "soft landing", makes the first stable development.
Preliminary knowledge for the average person.
Under the current trend of the continuous weakening of the domestic property market and the downward trend of the property market, we must not only be rational, but also have a sense of advancement, and take precautions to better adapt to the development of the market in the future.
1.There is a double difference in housing**.
With the declining number of births and the aging of the population structure, a large number of residents in small and medium-sized towns have begun to concentrate in large cities, which makes the real estate market increasingly complex. However, because the admission requirements of second-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are too high, many new first-tier cities such as Wuhan, Xi'an, Hangzhou, Chengdu, Chongqing and other places have poured in.
With the new influx of talents, the real estate in the new first- and second-tier cities has become more competitive. And in smaller towns, due to the decrease in population and the decrease in demand for buying houses, it has caused a large increase.
In this case, the average buyer is facing a depression in the property market, as well as a decline in the market. In the third and fourth-tier cities, there are buyers of idle properties in their hands, and it is a smart move to realize the surplus properties as soon as possible.
This is due to the fact that in the process of urbanization in China, the real estate of small and medium-sized cities has continued to decline, but.
Real estate in first-, second- and third-tier cities still has high investment and residential value. So, take advantage of it.
First-, second- and third-tier cities are the best choice to relax the purchase restriction policy and sell the house in hand.
2.In order to meet the needs of customers, do a good job of psychological construction.
Especially some older houses, the quality of life will become worse in the future, and even face problems in water supply and power supply. If this is the case, residents may need to be prepared for a new home.
At this time, you can consider increasing the funds for buying a house and set your sights on new or new developments with the potential for appreciation. In the current real estate situation, we should try to choose the right house price to replace, rather than chasing location and quality excessively.
Secondly, high-rise residential buildings, especially high-rise buildings with more than 30 floors, will gradually age due to the increase in service life, equipment such as elevators will gradually age, the maintenance cost is high, and there are great safety risks. Therefore, when the real estate market is the best, you can consider replacing these houses with safer and more comfortable low-rise houses, and you can also afford to buy more small high-rise houses.
In addition, for families with improvement needs, it is necessary to pay close attention to the changes in the real estate market, and at the same time consider their own economic situation, and carry out a series of property distribution and investment plans after the purchase to cope with possible market changes and risks.
Overall, Wang Shi's re-expectation and analysis of China's real estate market is quite significant. Under the current property market situation, we must actively respond to problems such as "debt crisis" and "unfinished", so that the property market has sufficient time to adjust, and take corresponding measures to achieve the goal of "soft landing".
For ordinary people, in the face of the property market depression and the decline of the property market, in addition to making adequate preparations for their own economic situation and risk taking, they should also pay attention to their economic situation and risk tolerance. In the face of market changes, we should keep a clear head and rational, and adjust our purchase decisions and property distribution plans in a timely manner, so that we can better cope with various risks in the market and maintain and appreciate our assets.