China's large-scale expansion of chip production, the United States panicked, and experts issued a warning!
Chris Miller, a well-known American expert, author of the book "Chip Wars", and an associate professor of international history at Tufts University's Fletcher School, had a very interesting opinion in an interview.
He said that China's mature chip production capacity continues to expand, which makes the United States worry that China's overcapacity will cause the existing chips to be substantial.
But at the same time, the U.S. is not likely to give more money to experienced chip manufacturers, and chip subsidies are usually for advanced processes.
Looking at the global chip market, 70% of mature chips now account for 70% of the world's market, while advanced chips occupy 30% of the market, and those mature chips account for a large proportion.
Therefore, he believes that in the future, the United States is likely to rely on China's mature capabilities in chip manufacturing and 28 nm or higher processes, and the semiconductor war between China and the United States will be a new round of border war.
In fact, before many American analysts, many people who have the same view as him agree that China's current development is limited, but in the process of maturity, it will not be constrained, so it is necessary to increase production.
The production of chips in the United States is less than 10%, that is to say, most of the demand for chips in the United States is in China, so the market in the United States is likely to be a necklace.
This figure also shows that there are 44 wafer fabs in China, including 25 12-inch wafer fabs, 15 8-inch wafer fabs, and 4 6-inch wafer fabs.
In addition to the 44 power stations, there are another 22 power stations, including 15 12-inch and 7 8-inch plants.
According to the global wafer production capacity (excluding DRAM and NAND), we expect that by the middle of 2024, the global wafer production capacity will exceed 30 million pieces (8 inches equivalent), and the production capacity of Chinese mainland will reach 8.6 million pieces, growing at an average annual rate of 13%, accounting for 28 of the world's wafer production capacity7%, ranking first in the world.
Similarly, Chinese mainland, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and the United States have less than 10% of their production capacity, and it is estimated that China's production capacity is less than 1 3.
In this case, what do you think? I don't think it's going to be much better now, because most of our core equipment and technology are controlled by the United States.
Although our chip production is increasing, it is not easy to surpass the United States, because in the world, not only China, but also many countries have similar production capacity, which is provided by the United States.
U.S. analysts and experts believe that this is to give U.S. companies more money so that U.S. chip companies can expand production capacity and build more factories, making China's threat even more serious.