Expert Liu Heping pointed out that the recent activities of the Philippines in the South China Sea show its intention to escalate the dispute between China and the Philippines on islands and reefs. The Philippine military has continued to send ships to the vicinity of Second Thomas Shoal in an attempt to coordinate joint patrols with other countries on the disputed islands, and has shifted its tactics from its original provocative behavior to Scarborough Shoal, which is strategically important to China.
Liu Heping believes that the Philippines' actions during the Spring Festival are deliberately chosen to be carried out during important Chinese cultural festivals"Sneak attack", designed to test the response of China's maritime law enforcement forces. This move is suspected to be an attempt to divert China's attention from the supply sabotage operation on Ren'ai Jiao, and to demonstrate its strategy of attacking the east and west.
Liu Heping also pointed out that the Philippines' use of more armed coast guard ships against Scarborough Shoal hints at a tougher posture. This may have something to do with the more armed patrol boats that the Philippines has acquired in recent years from countries such as Japan.
At the same time, Liu Heping also pointed to the strategic interaction between the United States and the Philippines. U.S. military operations in the South China Sea, particularly the Philippines' increased military presence and military exercises in the Bataan Islands, have shown the potential for the Philippines to use its strategic location to address the situation in the Taiwan Strait.
In conclusion, Liu Heping warned that China needs to be highly vigilant and prepared for any military conflict that may break out in the South China Sea region in the face of potential provocations by the Philippines and U.S. strategic intentions in the region.